This paper quantifies potential costs of issue linkage examining trade preferences granted under the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). Preferential market access via US GSP is conditional on political practices by beneficiaries. Using monthly import data, I study trade policy...

Access to critical raw materials (CRMs) is increasingly being shaped by geopolitical dynamics, fuelling a global competition for supply security. This paper applies the gravity model of trade to examine how OECD countries leverage Aid for Trade (AfT), Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), and...

International trade increases aggregate welfare but also creates winners and losers, which makes free trade a contentious political issue. Recent research has established that individuals are more sensitive to anti-trade information about the prospect of employment loss than to pro-trade...

The Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) principle has historically been instrumental in promoting stability and equitable trade conditions. In recent decades there has been a rise in bilateral and regional trade agreements, which deviate from the MFN principle in providing more favourable tariff...

How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This paper provides new evidence on the consequences of disintegration by estimating the impact of Brexit on goods trade by UK firms. The UK’s exit from the EU’s single market and customs union in January 2021 led to an...

This paper examines the evolution of global merchandise trade, between 2010 and 2022, assessing the share of imports subject to regional trade agreements (RTAs). A key question for us is whether the share of merchandise trade subject to preferences has kept pace with the proliferation in RTAs....

The Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) principle has historically been instrumental in promoting stability and equitable trade conditions. In recent decades there has been a rise in bilateral and regional trade agreements, which deviate from the MFN principle in providing more favourable tariff...

This paper examines whether non-binding ("soft") AI-related provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) move trade and how their effects compare with binding ("hard") provisions. The motivation is straightforward: digital rules are spreading quickly, but legal enforceability is uneven. We...

This paper examines whether non-binding ("soft") AI-related provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) move trade and how their effects compare with binding ("hard") provisions. The motivation is straightforward: digital rules are spreading quickly, but legal enforceability is uneven. We...

This paper examines the evolution of global merchandise trade, between 2010 and 2022, assessing the share of imports subject to regional trade agreements (RTAs). A key question for us is whether the share of merchandise trade subject to preferences has kept pace with the proliferation in RTAs....

The European Union (EU) supports developing countries with a unilateral trade preference scheme. The scheme underwent a major reform in 2014, in which many countries lost access to reduced tariff rates. We analyse how this radical step that removed preferences from 103 countries by 2018 fits...

The magnitude of returns to colonial-era investments in Africa has been addressed in an extensive literature, as have the nature and legacies of extractive colonial institutions. However, the link between these institutions and the profitability of firms remains unclear. We reconstruct the...

This study applies Keynesian macroeconomic theory in the ARDL model to compare the growth effects of the US's AGOA and China's FOCAC multilateral trading systems in South Africa from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The study uses South Africa's net exports with the...

The project objective is to assess CSO participation in the EU-SADC EPA signed in 2016 and offer recommendations to enhance CSO roles. The EPA focuses on trade and economic cooperation. Despite its potential, CSO involvement in the SADC region has been minimal. As a result of the inception...

The project objective is to assess CSO participation in the EU-SADC EPA signed in 2016 and offer recommendations to enhance CSO roles. The EPA focuses on trade and economic cooperation. Despite its potential, CSO involvement in the SADC region has been minimal. As a result of the inception...

Using highly disaggregated customs-transaction-level data, we study the importer price effects of tariffs in the context of preferential trade agreements for South African imports of frozen bone-in chicken. We focus first on the firm-level impact of tariffs on import prices. Findings suggest no...

Rules of origin are critical components of preferential trade agreements designed to stop products coming in under insufficient transformation or through the partner that applies the lowest tariff. But in practice, these rules are often needlessly complex, undoing the benefits of market access...