Geopolitical conflicts generate macroeconomic spillovers that extend beyond directly affected countries through trade and commodity linkages. This paper quantifies these effects for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain using a monthly Trade-Related Conflict Exposure (TRCE) index for 2009–2023...

Cities are places where people commute to work and where goods are traded across space. While a large literature examines how lower commuting costs reshape cities, much less is known about within-city trade costs as a distinct force. This paper studies both channels using the construction of the...

This paper presents a method for estimating treatment effects of local climate shocks when regions trade with each other. Because trade creates spillovers, comparing the change in outcomes of regions with different exposure to shocks leads to biased estimates. We model these between-region...

This paper provides a historical perspective on comparatively low levels of trade in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on studies addressing the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Our literature review identifies best practices and reviews trade potential...

In this descriptive paper, we focus on the sectoral composition of trade balances and their evolution since the 1970s, through the aggregation of millions of data points for goods and services. We use a "tree" approach, from global to regional, and from regional to sectoral and finally country...

Geoeconomic fragmentation - the phenomenon of international transactions being increasingly restricted to politically aligned partners - creates risks for individual countries but also opportunities that some hope to seize by becoming "connector" countries. We modify a standard trade model by...

How should a developing country such as South Africa respond to the USA's "Liberation Day" Tariffs of April 2025 and subsequent shocks? Combining the GTAP-Dynamic (GDyn) Computable General Equilibrium model with an expanded Decision Support Model (DSM), we simulate five policy response scenarios...

Market forces, and notably the role of trade openness, contribute to shaping inequality in South Africa and may limit the inclusiveness of its growth path. Recently, policy reforms may have helped to mitigate these effects. To better understand these developments, we analyse trends in post-tax...

This paper provides the first causal estimate of the economic impact of interlinking payment systems across countries. We exploit a new dataset of payment systems interlinking initiatives, which identifies over 2,000 connections, and employ standard gravity methods to estimate their impact on...

This paper leverages Sri Lanka's 2021 chemical fertilizer import ban to quantify the costs of restricted fertilizer access for agriculture, trade, and welfare. Leveraging trade and production data, satellite-based yield estimates, and event studies, we document sharp declines in fertilizer...

We combine the latest difference-in-differences estimators for treatments with exit and structural gravity literature to evaluate the effects of sanctions on trade, when they are in place and when they are lifted. Our analysis shows that sanctions reduce trade between senders and targets by 58%,...

Geoeconomic fragmentation - the phenomenon of international transactions being increasingly restricted to politically aligned partners - creates risks for individual countries but also opportunities that some hope to seize by becoming "connector" countries. We modify a standard trade model by...

Market forces, and notably the role of trade openness, contribute to shaping inequality in South Africa and may limit the inclusiveness of its growth path. Recently, policy reforms may have helped to mitigate these effects. To better understand these developments, we analyse trends in post-tax...

In this descriptive paper, we focus on the sectoral composition of trade balances and their evolution since the 1970s, through the aggregation of millions of data points for goods and services. We use a "tree" approach, from global to regional, and from regional to sectoral and finally country...

We combine the latest difference-in-differences estimators for treatments with exit and structural gravity literature to evaluate the effects of sanctions on trade, when they are in place and when they are lifted. Our analysis shows that sanctions reduce trade between senders and targets by 58%,...

We combine the latest difference-in-differences estimators for treatments with exit and structural gravity literature to evaluate the effects of sanctions on trade, when they are in place and when they are lifted. Our analysis shows that sanctions reduce trade between senders and targets by 58%,...

As countries in Asia and the Pacific continue to integrate into the global economy, what are the implications for women's labor market participation in these countries? The literature on international trade considers the effects of import competition and export orientation on gender gaps in...

Market forces, and notably the role of trade openness, contribute to shaping inequality in South Africa and may limit the inclusiveness of its growth path. Recently, policy reforms may have helped to mitigate these effects. To better understand these developments, we analyze trends in post-tax...

Research about trade liberalization's impact on markups has focused on manufacturing due to data availability considerations. How do these effects vary across sectors? Which industries become more and less competitive as trade barriers are eliminated? We leverage firm-level tax records from the...

This study examines crypto-asset trading, focusing on regulatory violations that lead to enforcement actions and the impact of estate planning after a digital asset holder's death. We review the literature on crypto-asset estate planning and explore lessons from Islamic finance regarding crypto...

This paper examines the impact of imports from developed countries on industry-specific employment in India between 1983 and 2010. The identification strategy relies on comparing differential changes in import exposure across regions to the differential changes in employment within industries....

We examine firm-level upgrading in Colombian manufacturing firms as a result of a high-skilled labor supply shock triggered by the Venezuelan exodus. Using a unique and confidential dataset from 2013 to 2019 and a shift-share instrumental variables approach, we find that the increased supply of...

This paper analyzes whether Chinese aid and other forms of official finance affect structural transformation in low- and-middle income countries. Specifically, we employ an instrumental variables (IV) approach to causally analyze the effect on the Economic Complexity Index of 98 recipient...

We review the literature on geoeconomics, defined as the field of study that links economics and geopolitics (power rivalry). We describe what geoeconomics is and which questions it addresses, focusing on five main subfields. First, the use of geoeconomic policy tools such as sanctions and...