We investigate how reducing information costs through forced experimentation with postal voting, while holding administrative rules fixed, affects subsequent voting behavior. Leveraging a natural experiment during Bavaria’s 2020 Mayoral Elections and drawing on municipality-level...

This paper examines the U.S. Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United decision, which lifted bans on independent expenditures by corporations and unions. Using a difference-in-differences design, the study compares states with and without pre-existing bans, focusing on gubernatorial elections. The...

This paper examines the impact of regional development on democracy building in the Czech Republic following the fall of the Iron Curtain and the autocratic communist regime in 1989. By exploiting the variation in regional development arising from the economic transition process, we identify...

This document is a follow up to the paper by Ahmed and Pesaran (2020, AP) and reports state-level forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election. It updates the 3,107 county level data used by AP and uses the same machine learning techniques as before to select the variables used in forecasting...

When does organized crime resort to assassinating politicians? In narcocracies, criminal groups co-opt political elites through bribery in exchange for protection to traffic illegal drugs. When criminal groups compete, they may also resort to political violence to influence which candidate wins...

This paper examines the impact of the large structural shocks - automation and import competition - on voter turnout during US federal elections from 2000 to 2016. Although the negative income effect of both shocks is comparable, we find that political participation decreases significantly in...

The problem of finding the factors influencing voting behavior is of crucial interest in political science and is frequently analyzed in books and articles. But there are not so many studies whose supporting information comes from official registers. This work uses official vote records in Spain...

The literature on political socialization highlights the importance of parents and friends, but it is rare to find studies analyzing these socializing agents in the same model. In contrast, friends are often limited to one or a few friends that may not account for the actual effect of friends....

Analyzing U.S. House elections (2002-2010), measures of legislators' effectiveness, and exogenous increases in Chinese import competition, we document a conditional relationship between legislative effectiveness and electoral success. In districts ex-posed to large trade shocks, incumbent...

"Pendular Voting" presents a novel two-stage voting procedure: A randomly chosen citizen group votes on a proposal replacing the status quo. Depending on the outcome, a "counterproposal" ensues, that is closer to/further away from the status quo than the original proposal. All citizens vote...

The literature on political socialization highlights the importance of parents and friends, but it is rare to find studies analyzing these socializing agents in the same model. In contrast, friends are often limited to one or a few friends that may not account for the actual effect of friends....

This paper examines the short- to long-term effects of large-scale refugee inflows on labour markets and anti-asylum attitudes. Using the exogenous arrival of Yugoslav refugees to Switzerland in the 1990s and municipal-level data with an instrumental variables strategy, we find that refugee...

Using a novel dataset in a difference-in-differences framework, I study the political implications of the change in policies protecting drought-impacted communities in Tunisia in 3088 districts. In 2016, the Tunisian government had drastically reduced support to farmers affected by droughts. I...

How does polarization - as measured by mistreatment of political rivals - spread? In an online experiment, participants choose between splitting financial resources equally or discriminating against a member of the opposing political party. We vary the information subjects receive about others'...

This is the first of four articles on the 2025 German federal elections, continuing our analysis of the 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021 elections. We begin with the 2023/24 electoral reform, which aimed to curb the uncontrolled growth of the Bundestag caused by political developments not envisaged in...

This is the second out of four papers on the 2025 German federal elections continuing our analysis of the 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021 Bundestag elections. We estimate the policy representation ability of the 29 parties that participated in the 2025 elections and of the 2025 Bundestag. For this...

This paper studies whether affirmative action policies towards the outsider group may foster a backlash by the insider one. We exploit the unique historical context provided by the legacy of apartheid in democratic South Africa. We found that the completion of the affirmative action legislation...

This is the third out four papers on the 2025 German Bundestag elections continuing our analysis of the 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021 elections. In particular, this paper contributes to the discussion of the imperfection of the German 2023/24 Electoral reform in [Tangian 2025a]. We show that policy...

This is the last out of four papers on the 2025 German federal elections continuing our analysis of the 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021 Bundestag elections. First, we apply the model from [Tangian 2022b] to construct the 2025 German political spectrum understood as a contiguous party ordering, i.e.,...

This paper investigates how concurrent national and local elections affect the local political participation and competition. Leveraging a quasi-experimental framework provided by Italy's staggered electoral timing, the paper employs a difference-in-differences design. Estimates reveal that...

Das Gebäudeenergiegesetz (GEG), umgangssprachlich auch "Heizungsgesetz" genannt, sorgte in den letzten Jahren für viele Diskussionen in Öffentlichkeit, Medien und Politik. Die meisten Zeitungen berichteten ausgiebig über den Entwurf der GEGNovellierung, wobei er überwiegend negativ bewertet...

This paper examines how natural disasters shape electoral preferences by analyzing the impact of earthquakes in Italy between 1990 and 2019. Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences design, we estimate that affected municipalities are more likely to elect female, more educated, and older city...

Aggarwal et al. (2023) analyze the effects of an 8-month-long advertising program on voter turnout in the 2020 US presidential election. Therein, 2 million voters were exposed to pro-Biden and anti-Trump advertisements on social media in five battleground states. The study finds no average...

Flamino et al. (2023) estimate the levels of ideological polarization and echo chamber behavior for Twitter (now X) users during the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections using political bias classification and network analysis methods. Using 873 million tweets, they find a decline in the...

This research examines impacts of austerity on the political instability in the European Union, defined as elevated levels of electoral volatility and ideological polarization. By analyzing macroeconomic theories that elucidate the effects of austerity on citizens' wealth and the national...

In the 2024 European Parliament elections turnout varied significantly across EU Member States, influenced by institutional factors such as compulsory voting and concurrent elections. Socioeconomic disparities persisted; older, higher-educated, and wealthier citizens were more likely to vote,...