Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Western countries have been providing military assistance to Ukraine. However, relative to GDP, the support from the small Baltic and Nordic countries has been greater than that of the larger European NATO countries. This article...

On 8 December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The collapse of the family dictatorship was made possible by shifts in regional and international power dynamics. Key factors included Turkish support for the rebels, the...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to soaring world market prices of many commodities with severe repercussions for many African countries. This study examines the implications of the 2022 world market price increases for wheat, fuels, and fertilizers for Ethiopia. Using a computable...

No Russian election since Soviet times has been manipulated to the extent we are seeing in the 2024 “presidential election”. The political context is dictatorial, the regime’s power grab comprehensive. The media are subject to wartime censorship, and there is not even a pretence of...

We analyze the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the partial military mobilization, and the Wagner Group rebellion on a broad set of sentiments in the Russian population, using the exogenous timing of surveys from Gallup World Poll and the Levada Center. Our results show strong rally...

The Standard Eurobarometer 101 (EB101) survey of spring 2024 was conducted from 2 April to 9 May in 38 countries or territories: the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU), eight candidate countries (Albania, Georgia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Türkiye and Bosnia and...

The European Union stands united in its unwavering support of Ukraine in the face of Russia's unprovoked and unjustified aggression and the illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory by the Russian Federation. The EU is committed to help Ukraine resist this aggression and to play a major role in...

The European Union stands united in its unwavering support of Ukraine in the face of Russia's unprovoked and unjustified aggression and the illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory by the Russian Federation. The EU is committed to help Ukraine resist this aggression and to play a major role in...

The founding aspiration of European integration was to provide peace. Over the decades, commitment to democracy has become a feature of the EU, enshrined in the Treaty of Lisbon among its core values. At the same time, security, particularly after the failure of the European Defence Community in...

In the period March 2022 to June 2023, nearly €730 billion of aid was approved either under the Temporary Crisis and Transition Framework or directly under the Treaty and based on TCTF principles. Around €141 billion was actually granted to companies, representing 19.3% of the aid approved...

With the aim of bringing Russia's war of aggression to an end and developing a sustainable post-war peace, Ukraine has advanced its vision of peace (as encompassed in President Zelenskyy's 'peace formula') and the paths that lead to this (as outlined in Ukraine's 10-point peace plan). Other...

With the aim of bringing Russia's war of aggression to an end and developing a sustainable post-war peace, Ukraine has advanced its vision of peace (as encompassed in President Zelenskyy's 'peace formula') and the paths that lead to this (as outlined in Ukraine's 10-point peace plan). Other...

France's reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was initially conciliatory. However, the current French President' statements, Macron, gradually changed, suggesting a potential shift in France's stance. The French president recently suggested troops could be sent to Ukraine to fight the...

The Middle East has experienced significant and wide-ranging consequences due to terrorism and the resulting War on Terror. The region saw substantial impacts as a result of the War on Terror. This study briefly overviews the security, economic and political repercussions of the prolonged...

We use the Twitter application programming interface to construct a novel indicator capturing the varying perceptions of geopolitical risk related to the war in Ukraine. We show that the Twitter variable is a statistically significant determinant of the EUR/PLN exchange rate following the...

This report offers an analysis of Russia's Africa policy since its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Three major conclusions emerge from it. First, Russia is engaged in a concerted effort to maintain and, if possible, extend its politico-military influence on the continent. To this end, it...

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, we offers insights into the far-reaching consequences of wars. Based on a new dataset on major conflicts since 1870, the findings show that wars cause a substantial decline in GDP and spike in inflation within war zones. Interestingly, countries...

Ukraine and its international partners are faced with an unprecedented task: advancing recovery efforts and the EU accession process while also providing critically important military and financial support to help Ukraine defend its sovereignty against Russian military aggression. Uncertainty...

A sharp increase in fixed investment has been a key factor supporting Russia's economy in recent years. This brief highlights the drivers of Russia's recent investment boom. During 2022, the first year of the full-blown war in Ukraine, investment growth was dominated by increased budget...

Using novel longitudinal data, this paper studies the short- and medium-term effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 on social trust of adolescents in Germany. Comparing adolescents who responded to our survey shortly before the start of the war with those who responded...

This brief assesses the state of the Ukrainian economy two years since Russia's full-scale invasion. After a devastating 2022, Ukraine's economy in 2023 proved surprisingly resilient, thanks in part to its foreign partners. Decelerating inflation and a managed exchange rate provided...

Russia's fullscale invasion of Ukraine since 24 February 2022 has not shaken France's security policy as fundamentally as it has Germany's. France sees its previous goals confirmed, particularly in terms of strengthening Europe's strategic sovereignty. Nevertheless, it has been adapting in many...

While significant attention has been dedicated to sanctions episodes among major economies which usually rely on a diverse set of trade partners, little is known about the impact of sanctions imposed by senders on economies highly dependent on them. Using Ukrainian export data for 2009-2019 at...