The article examines the evolution of the current technological paradigm, based on digital technologies, considering the interaction between civilian and military trajectories, with a focus on the US case. Building on an original political economy framework, the activities of corporations and...

This paper revisits the empirical analysis of Nakamura and Steinsson (2014). I reconstruct and extend the original dataset to cover the period 1966-2019, harmonizing two major sources of data: the Defense Contract Action Data System (DCADS) and USAspending.gov. I discuss how to aggregate these...

Die Koalitionssondierungen haben zu einer Einigung bei der Finanzierung von Infrastruktur und Rüstung geführt. Diese sieht vor, die Schuldengrenze im Grundgesetz bestehen zu lassen und sie zugleich mithilfe von kreditfinanzierten Sondervermögen bzw. Ausnahmeklauseln zu umgehen. Das wirft die...

• By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia's financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. • We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. • A one-euro...

Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that...

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, a process of securitisation of the European Union's (EU) external action can be observed. From an institutional perspective, the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) increasingly overlaps with the Common Security and Defence...

What determines the effectiveness of military buildups? We introduce the concept of the military multiplier: the percentage increase in military equipment an additional dollar buys. It varies with the costs of allocating resources to military production, depending, among other things, on the...

Europe can no longer rely on the United States for its defence but is currently lacking essential capabilities to assure security itself. European countries should not give up on NATO but seek to close capability gaps by developing the European defence industrial base. The EU can play an...

The design of an operationally and militarily prepared Bundeswehr of the future requires the consideration of multiple facets. Its operation requires reliable access to economic resources (labour, capital, land) and their efficient management. This completely addresses the contradiction between...

Various options are being discussed to increase Germany's defense capabilities. Increasing the size of the Bundeswehr is proving difficult, and compulsory military service hardly seems feasible for economic and socio-political reasons. A European army and technological alternatives such as...

Peace does not rest on the goodwill of others but on our capacity to defend ourselves and deter threats. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered whatever i l lus ions rema ined about Europe's immediate environment. Russia is intent on causing maximum harm to Ukrainians while running...

Peace does not rest on the goodwill of others but on our capacity to defend ourselves and deter threats. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered whatever i l lus ions rema ined about Europe's immediate environment. Russia is intent on causing maximum harm to Ukrainians while running...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

National defence is a quintessential public good which generates welfare but does not have a market price to be used for its valuation. This study uses non-market valuation, namely a discrete choice experiment, to enhance the understanding of how individuals' perceptions of threat influence...

Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own security. While EU Member States have made substantial new resources available for European defence, and European defence companies are thriving, more needs to be done. National defence spending will likely continue to rise but there is also...

Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own security. While EU Member States have made substantial new resources available for European defence, and European defence companies are thriving, more needs to be done. National defence spending will likely continue to rise but there is also...

This paper investigates how an increase in military expenditures affects an economy. It is written in the context of rising geopolitical tensions that have spurred increased military spending in the United States, Europe, and other economic areas. It draws on a large literature in...

Economic resources are often seen as decisive for the outcomes of military conflicts. This paper asks whether “deeper pockets” help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal...

The European Union is grappling with the challenge of increasing defence expenditure while maintaining fiscal discipline under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The European Commission has proposed activating the national escape clause available under the SGP to accommodate defence spending...

Europe must take more responsibility for its defence, if necessary without the United States, given Washington’s volatility. In March 2025, the European Union (EU) launched a series of initiatives to strengthen defence industry and defence policy cooperation. With these new instruments also...

Expanding military personnel and expenditure depends on public support and social legitimacy. Crisis events such as 9/11 and the 2014 annexation of Crimea have influenced public attitudes toward military investment, with support intensifying significantly after Russia's full-scale invasion of...

Operational autonomy should be achieved through developing integrated command systems, rather than simply procuring weapons: great powers direct operations. Direct deterrence must be achieved through investments in conventional forces, which can reduce but not replace reliance on US nuclear...

Research & development (R&D) subsidies, especially defense R&D spending, raise private R&D investment (a crowd-in effect). Public R&D funding increases employment without driving up wages. Supported industries see gains in productivity. International spillovers amplify the impact across...

This paper investigates the expansion of EU military activities, involving the European Commission, other EU-related institutions and Member States. Expenditure on EU military programmes - defence-related R&D, arms production, joint procurement, military mobility, and the supply of lethal...

This report updates and expands the data-driven work of our initial study from September 2024, which concluded that Europe would only be fit for war in several decades. We show that the situation today is even more concerning if Europe aims to be fit for war by 2030. First, Russia continues to...

Europe faces a dual crisis of growing security threats and declining economic competitiveness. Increased defence spending offers an opportunity to address both challenges. Through initiatives such as ReArm Europe and NATO's 5% pledge, EU Member States are committing substantial resources to...

Europe faces a dual crisis of growing security threats and declining economic competitiveness. Increased defence spending offers an opportunity to address both challenges. Through initiatives such as ReArm Europe and NATO's 5% pledge, EU Member States are committing substantial resources to...

This Economic Brief analyses the euro area fiscal stance, i.e. the impulse that national and the EU budgets provide to the euro area economy, with a focus on the 2024-2026 period. In the euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) is entrusted with the objective of maintaining price stability...

Purpose The paper aims to investigate the relationship between institutions and economic growth in developing countries, considering the role of financial inclusion, education spending and military spending. Design/methodology/approach The study employs dynamic panel analysis, specifically...

In its war of attrition against Ukraine, the Kremlin is counting on outnumbering the enemy over a long period in terms of both hardware and personnel. Following the unpopular partial mobilisation in autumn 2022, the recruitment of contract soldiers and volunteer fighters was stepped up...

China-Russia joint military exercises should be taken seriously, considering their frequency, complexity and global reach. Some are designed for communication and political messaging, signalling displeasure with the US military presence in various regions and defence cooperation among Western...

China-Russia joint military exercises should be taken seriously, considering their frequency, complexity and global reach. Some are designed for communication and political messaging, signalling displeasure with the US military presence in various regions and defence cooperation among Western...

The EU should expand its support to the development of Ukraine's defence industry to sustain the country's fighting power, reduce its dependencies on Western aid and boost its domestic economy. Two broad areas demand particular attention. As a matter of urgency Ukraine needs investment in local...