Long-term bond yields contain a risk-premium, an important part of which is compensation for inflation risks. The substantial increase in the Fed funds rate in the mid-2000s did not raise long-term US Treasury yields due to the reduction in the term premium (so-called Greenspan conundrum) which...

Chapter 1 Introduction -- Chapter 2 Efficient markets -- Chapter 3 Equity premium -- Chapter 4 The dividend ratio model -- Chapter 5 Bond valuation -- Chapter 6 Yield curves -- Chapter 7 Term structure models -- Chapter 8 Real estate market -- Chapter 9 Derivative securities -- Chapter 10...

We estimate a New Keynesian model on post-war US data with generalised method of moments using either constant or time- varying debt and labor income taxes. We show that accounting for government debt and distortionary taxes help the New Keynesian model match the level of the nominal term...

I estimate a dynamic term-structure model with time-varying risk premia on a panel of Treasury coupon bonds, without relying on an interpolated zero-coupon yield curve or a selection of maturities. The model allows me to incorporate prices and realized returns of coupon bonds into the estimation...

El objetivo del presente trabajo es realizar un análisis comparativo entre la metodología comúnmente utilizada por los agentes del mercado local en lo referido a la estimación de Curvas de Rendimiento Cupón Cero (también conocidas como Estructuras Temporales de Tasa de Interés o ETTI),...

How should monetary policy respond to a global liquidity trap, where the two countries may fall into a liquidity trap simultaneously? Using a two-country New Open Economy Macroeconomics model, we first characterise optimal monetary policy, and show that the optimal rate of inflation in one...

Since the 2007 financial crisis, many central banks adopted policies to lower their interest rates, whose dynamics can not be captured using classical models. Recently, Meucci and Loregian (2016) proposed an approach to estimate nonnegative interest rates using the inverse-call transformation....

I estimate a dynamic term-structure model with time-varying risk premia on a panel of Treasury coupon bonds, without relying on an interpolated zero-coupon yield curve or a selection of maturities. The model implies that level prices of zero-coupon bonds are linear functions of latent factors,...

El objetivo del presente trabajo es realizar un análisis comparativo entre la metodología comúnmente utilizada por los agentes del mercado local en lo referido a la estimación de Curvas de Rendimiento Cupón Cero (también conocidas como Estructuras Temporales de Tasa de Interés o ETTI),...

In a two-country DSGE model, the effects of foreign demand shocks on the home country are greatly amplified if the home economy is constrained by the zero lower bound on policy interest rates. This result applies even to countries that are relatively closed to trade such as the United States....

Due to bond prices pull-to-par, zero-coupon bond historical returns are not stationary, as they tend to zero as time to maturity approaches. Given that the historical simulation method for computing value at risk (VaR) requires a stationary sequence of historical returns, zero-coupon bonds'...

How should monetary policy respond to a global liquidity trap, where the two countries may fall into a liquidity trap simultaneously? Using a two-country New Open Economy Macroeconomics model, we first characterise optimal monetary policy, and show that the optimal rate of inflation in one...

We introduce costly firm-entry a la Bilbiie et al. (2012) into a New Keynesian model with Epstein-Zin preferences and show that it can jointly account for a high mean value of bond and equity premium without compromising the fit of the model to first and second moments of key macroeconomic...

In this paper, using a conception of continuous coupon bond with continuous accrual of coupons on simple fixed rate for pricing a risky zero-coupon bond is considered. It is shown that only employing this conception allows obtaining explicit equation for price of risky zero-coupon bond from...

We consider the valuation and analysis of zero-coupon contingent capital bonds (CCBs) in the structural framework. Using Doob's Optional Sampling Theorem (and making virtually no assumptions on asset value dynamics, the terms of conversion or the conversion trigger) we express the value of the...

We present an accurate and easy-to-compute approximation of zero-coupon bonds and Arrow-Debreu (AD) prices for the Black-Karasinski model of interest rates or default intensities. Through this procedure, dubbed exponent expansion, AD prices are obtained as a power series in time to maturity....

Modeling the term structure of interest rate is very important to macroeconomists and financial market practitioners in general. In this paper, we used the Diebold-Li interpretation to the Nelson Siegel model in order to fit and forecast the Brazilian yield curve. The data consisted of daily...

Distortionary income taxation in a standard New Keynesian model substantially increases the nominal term-premium on long-term bonds relative to a model with lumpsum taxes. Also the empirical level of the nominal term premium can be matched with lower risk-aversion coefficient in case of a model...

In this paper, gold is investigated as a super- sovereign zero- coupon bond. A structural relationship between the gold and the observed yields on long maturity inflation indexed bonds is derived under the assumption that the gold price reflects the long run inflation level. This relationship...

The Lie-algebraic approach has been applied to solve the bond pricing problem in single-factor interest rate models. Four of the popular single-factor models, namely the Vasicek model, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, double square-root model, and Ahn-Gao model, are investigated. By exploiting the...

A large part of the term structure literature interprets the first underlying factors as a level factor, a slope factor, and a curvature factor. In this paper we consider factor models interpretable as a level factor model, a level and a slope factor model, respectively. We prove that such...

The discounting of very long-term cash-flows is crucial for the valuation of long-term investment projects. In this paper, we analyze the market prices of US government bonds with very long-term time-to-maturity, and emphasize some statistical specificities of very long-term zero-coupon rates,...

In this paper we consider a two-country New Open Economy Macroeconomics model, and analyze the optimal monetary policy when countries cooperate in the face of a "global liquidity trap" - i.e., a situation where the two countries are simultaneously caught in liquidity traps. Compared to the...

When the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates binds, monetary policy cannot provide appropriate stimulus. We show that in the standard New Keynesian model, tax policy can deliver such stimulus at no cost and in a time-consistent manner. There is no need to use inefficient policies such as...

In this paper we consider a two-country New Open Economy Macroeconomics model, and analyze the optimal monetary policy when countries cooperate in the face of a "global liquidity trap" - i.e., a situation where the two countries are simultaneously caught in liquidity traps. Compared to the...

When the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates binds, monetary policy cannot provide appropriate stimulus. We show that in the standard New Keynesian model, tax policy can deliver such stimulus at no cost and in a time-consistent manner. There is no need to use inefficient policies such as...

In this paper, we evaluate the information content of the yield curve as regards future interest rates and inflation in France and Germany. An original data set of long-term zero-coupon interest rates for French and German government bonds was constructed for the period 1980-97. Empirical...

In this paper, we develop and apply Bayesian inference for an extended Nelson-Siegel (1987) term structure model capturing interest rate risk. The so-called Stochastic Volatility Nelson-Siegel (SVNS) model allows for stochastic volatility in the underlying yield factors. We propose a Markov...