Liberia continues to face substantial long-term development challenges. Resource constraints and substantial gaps in infrastructure and human capital have hindered Liberia's growth prospects and the authorities' efforts to improve living standards. Addressing these challenges will require...

Cabo Verde's recent strong economic growth is driven by tourism, exports, private consumption, and remittances, but hampered by slow government investment. The government has maintained macro-financial stability but faces risks from global uncertainties, supply chain issues, and commodity price...

Economic activity has slowed reflecting falling natural gas production, lower public investment execution, financial volatility, and disruptions due to socio-political tensions. Bolivia's inflation rate remains one of the lowest in the region, sustained by price controls and costly subsidies....

The Board approved Ethiopia's request for a four-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF arrangement) in July 2024 to support the authorities' Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda. The Fund-supported program addresses macroeconomic imbalances, aiming to restore external debt...

Niger remains trapped in high levels of fragility and conflict, which are exacerbated by climate shocks. This year, flooding combined with heavy rain affected more than 1.5 million people. The socio-political environment remains challenging. Political instability and sanctions following the...

The authorities have requested a three-month extension of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement set to expire on January 20, 2025. The three-year arrangement was approved by the Executive Board on January 21, 2022, with access of SDR 324.0 million (200 percent of quota). The extension...

The authorities have requested a new ECF-supported program, to deepen reforms undertaken under the previous program (completed in July 2024). They have also requested a program under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF)

This gap-filling paper provides granular advice on how to design quantitative and structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs in six expenditure policy areas: social assistance, energy subsidies, pension spending, health spending, education spending, and wage bill management. Such...

Recent developments. Haiti is facing exceptionally challenging circumstances. The deteriorating security environment, which reached crisis proportions in the first few months of 2024, has continued to worsen, disrupting supply chains (particularly energy and basic services) and feeding...

The authorities' commitment to a range of policy reforms continues to strengthen macroeconomic stability. The economy is growing, inflation is receding, donor support is increasing, the public debt is declining, and international bond spreads are at historic lows. The Final Investment Decision...

Following the shocks of recent years, fiscal expansion has helped preserve robust economic growth but has also pushed up Togo's public debt and contributed to vulnerabilities in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Further, despite the fiscal expansion, Togo's progress towards...

The Gambia hosted the 15th Summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in early May 2024-the second largest intergovernmental organization in the world. Economic recovery is strengthening, while inflation has trended down, albeit slowly. Despite strong revenue collection efforts, the...

On March 25, 2022, the IMF Executive Board approved a 30-month arrangement for Argentina supported by the Extended Fund Facility (2022 EFF). Amounting to US$44 billion (1,001 percent of quota), it was the second largest non-precautionary arrangement in the Fund's history after the 2018 Stand-by...

Tajikistan has continued to navigate the challenging external environment well. Real GDP rose 8.4 percent during January-September 2024, while inflation remained well-contained at 3.1 percent (y/y) in September. Robust remittances have boosted the external position, with FX reserves at more than...

The people of São Tomé and Príncipe (STP), a small fragile island state, have faced extraordinary challenges. STP continues to struggle with high fuel import needs, limited export potential, and depleted international reserves, and faced a massive balance of payments (BOP) shock in early...

Three years of war have taken a staggering social, humanitarian, and economic toll. Efforts to end the war, and potential changes to international support retain the exceptionally high uncertainty to the outlook. Yet, the authorities' commitment to reforms and fulfillment of all necessary Fund...

The fifth review of a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement (SDR 324 million, 200 percent of quota) was concluded on July 10, 2024. Resilient activity in the non-hydrocarbon sector supported economic growth in 2024, while oil production continued to surprise on the downside....

Economic recovery has continued, but growth remains subdued. Structural and governance weaknesses, ongoing internal conflicts and security concerns, social tensions around presidential elections in October 2025, and climate hazards continue to hinder the growth outlook, which is also unfavorably...

Political uncertainty remains high with another change of government in July 2024-the fifth since the beginning of the Fund-supported program. Substantial flooding and landslides in September 2024 further weighed on sluggish domestic demand, though conversely helping strengthen the external...

Real GDP growth stabilized at 4.2 percent in 2024. Led by food and energy prices, year-on-year inflation persisted, rising from 7.3 percent in March 2024 to 8.6 percent in December 2024 as deteriorating road and electricity infrastructure continued to weigh on transportation and production...

El Salvador has recovered well from the pandemic, supported by robust remittances and buoyant tourism flows, amid a sharp improvement in the country's security situation. Inflation has fallen and the external imbalances have narrowed more recently, consistent with a gradual improvement in public...

Sri Lanka underwent a political transition with presidential and parliamentary elections in late 2024. The new authorities expressed commitment to the program. Reform efforts are bearing fruit with growth recovering, low inflation, increased revenue collection, and reserves accumulation. By...

Being indebted represents significant risks associated with global financial instability in a world where financial stability hangs precariously between debt and economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) casts a critical eye over countries navigating the perilous seas of fiscal...

This paper evaluates the transition from X12-ARIMA to X13-ARIMA-SEATS for the seasonal adjustment of Armenia's quarterly national accounts (QNA). We analyze the methodological advancements and their impact on key economic indicators, focusing on the precision and reliability of seasonally...

Recent developments, outlook, and risks. Kosovo's economy has continued to perform well, despite a challenging external environment. Real GDP growth moderated to 3¼ percent in 2023 amid subdued external demand. Inflation has decelerated sharply, reaching 2 percent y/y in the first quarter of...

Following the completion of a 27-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement in December 2022, political uncertainty, a security crisis, and exogenous shocks to oil revenue and interest rates led to a sharp macroeconomic and fiscal deterioration. The authorities implemented swift and bold...

The Rwandan economy continues its robust growth, notwithstanding the challenging external environment, repeated shocks, and ongoing fiscal consolidation. Headline inflation decelerated sharply in recent months owing to appropriately tight monetary policy stance and favorable developments in food...

A political crisis in December 2023 resulted in another change in the government. In December 2023, the former Minister of Finance and Secretary of State of Treasury from the opposition-led government were arrested over corruption charges related to settlement of cross-arrears and NPLs of the...

On December 18, 2023, the explosion of a major fuel import and storage facility led to fuel shortages and new urgent financing needs. The blast caused 25 deaths and 457 injured as well as widespread fuel shortages, affecting transportation and economic activity. The relatively strong mining...

The signs of economic stabilization are strengthening, with gradual disinflation underway and external pressures easing further since the first review on the back of improved fiscal balances. However, the outlook remains challenging, with downside risks remaining exceptionally high

Over the last decade, Nigeria's growth has just about kept up with population dynamics. Poverty has increased, and food insecurity is rising. The government is constrained by low domestic revenue mobilization. Governance problems remain pervasive. The external environment-cost of...

Colombia's very strong policies and policy frameworks have helped to significantly reduce domestic and external imbalances and brought the economy to more sustainable levels of activity and demand. Market confidence has improved, but risk premia remain high compared to peers. The authorities...

The Moroccan economy once again showed resilience to negative shocks in 2023, as economic activity accelerated, inflation slowed, and the current account deficit narrowed despite headwinds from water scarcity (which caused a severe loss of jobs in the agricultural sector), the September 2023...

The IMF Executive Board approved a 46-month USD 3 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Egypt in December 2022. The EFF-supported program aims to safeguard economic stability, restore buffers, and pave the way for inclusive and private sector-led growth. Following policy...

The authorities' commitment to fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability is paying off. The economy is growing, inflation is on a steady downward trend, investor confidence is improving, donor support is increasing, and S&P has upgraded Suriname's credit rating. A debt restructuring...

Côte d'Ivoire is highly exposed to climate change through rising temperatures and sea levels as well as rain pattern changes. Economic vulnerabilities to climate change are mostly due to the country's heavy reliance on agriculture, and the concentration of industrial and services activity in...

Growth has been resilient to the shocks of recent years, but Togo is facing elevated food insecurity and terrorist attacks while development needs remain acute. Fiscal deficits and debt have increased, reversing the debt reduction achieved during the 2017-20 ECF-arrangement, eroding fiscal space...

Two years of Russia's war in Ukraine have taken an enormous humanitarian and economic toll. Skillful policymaking supported by external financing has helped maintain macroeconomic stability, and the authorities have advanced important structural reforms. Households and business have continued...

Economic recovery continues to gain strength following a rapid decline in inflation, favorable agriculture and robust industrial and services activity. Fiscal financing and foreign portfolio flows are facing headwinds amid tight global financial conditions and the passage of the...

Building on progress achieved under the previous SMP which ended in May 2023, on June 29, 2023, Management approved a new Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for a nine-month period spanning from June 30 through March 31, 2024

The paper aims to provide a conceptual framework and guiding principles for the coverage of Industrial Policy (IP) in IMF surveillance. It proposes a working definition of industrial policy, discusses its objectives and main instruments, and provides a brief review of academic literature on IP....

This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model...

Over the last decade, Jamaica has successfully reduced public debt, anchored inflation, and strengthened its external position. It has built a strong track record of investing in institutions and prioritizing macroeconomic stability. This allowed Jamaica's response to recent global shocks to be...

Climate change presents substantial risks for Cameroon. In addition to being the largest CEMAC economy with ample economic potential and abundant natural resources, Cameroon covers large areas of the Congo Basin rainforest, the second largest in the world. At the same time, the country is a...

Cameroon's economic recovery has continued against a backdrop of domestic security pressures, increased regional spillover risks, and continuing global economic uncertainties. Inflation remains high although decelerating, and while Cameroon is the largest CEMAC economy with ample economic...