Aufbauend auf der Vorjahresstudie (Matthes, 2024a) führt das Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) mit diesem Report das IW-Monitoring von potenziell kritischen Importabhängigkeiten der deutschen Wirtschaft von China fort. Unter mehr als 14.300 8-Steller-Warengruppen finden sich aktuell nur...

Ziel dieser Studie ist es zum einen, auf dem Konzept der Pfadabhängigkeit und der ökonomischen Komplexität aufbauend, die langfristigen und gegenwärtigen Entwicklungen der österreichischen Exportwirtschaft zu beleuchten. Welche Ökonomien konnten in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten erfolgreich...

Ziel dieser Studie ist es zum einen, auf dem Konzept der Pfadabhängigkeit und der ökonomischen Komplexität aufbauend, die langfristigen und gegenwärtigen Entwicklungen der österreichischen Exportwirtschaft zu beleuchten. Welche Ökonomien konnten in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten erfolgreich...

Foreign trade is a major factor in a country's economic development since it facilitates the integration of the national economy into the global system by granting access to foreign resources, technologies, and markets. In the context of globalisation, economic processes are constantly changing,...

Die deutschen Importabhängigkeiten von China sind in der Gesamtschau im Jahr 2023 trotz gewisser Veränderungen auf ähnlichem Niveau geblieben wie im Vorjahr. Damit lässt sich nur in Ansätzen ein importseitiges De-Risking erkennen. Das zeigt das IW-Monitoring von industrienahen...

The study investigates the implementation of trade routes and their impact on the regional economic integration of Central and South Asia. It uses three indices, the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI), Similarity Index (SI), and Trade Diversification Index (TDI), to evaluate the level of regional...

Kyrgyzstan economy have undergone transition from a different economic system in the 1990s until now. For stimulating a diversified long-run growth in Kyrgyzstan, the region needs to overcome spatial fragmentation by integrating the regions for economic development translating into national...

Existing literature found both positive and negative relationship between geographical diversification and economic performance. Our research helps reconcile such contradictory results, and stresses that such conflict is associated with relatedness between export markets. Using China’s custom...

Processing trade contributed greatly to China’s economic growth. The total value of China’s processing trade was US $1.7 billion during the initial period of reform and opening up, and reached US $1.2 trillion in 2015. However, the proportion of processing trade in China’s trade volume has...

In this paper, we examine the question of how trade drives educational attainment in a cross-country panel setting. If a country experience a positive demand shock for exports or a negative supply shock for imports that is intensive in educated labor, the demand for education is expected to...

In diesem Report wird untersucht, ob China mit seinen Exporten immer mehr in diejenigen Branchen vordringt, in denen die deutsche Wirtschaft ihre Stärken hat. Um dieser Frage nachzugehen, werden die Veränderungen der Anteile Chinas und Deutschlands an den EU-Importen im Zeitraum 2000 bis 2022...

Technologien, die für die CO2-neutrale Wirtschaft benötigt werden, sind bereits heute für den Klimaschutz wie für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung von zentraler Bedeutung. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich die Frage, ob Deutschland Gefahr läuft, durch eine zu langsame Energiewende...

We develop a dynamic multi-country Ricardian trade model with aggregate uncertainty, where countries trade goods and assets, leading to trade imbalances. We introduce a method for computing counterfactuals in this setting without specifying the stochastic process of shocks or solving for asset...

On the eve of its 60th anniversary, the gravity model of trade is a "celebrity", due to its intuitive appeal, solid theoretical foundations, and remarkable empirical success. Yet, many economists still view gravity simply as an intuitive but naive reduced-form estimating equation and apply it...

This study examines the relationship between Japan's manufactured exports to individual markets and the economic activities of foreign manufacturing affiliates of Japanese multinational corporations (MNCs) and U.S. MNCs in those markets. First, the relationships between Japanese export levels...

This study investigates how easing international transactions through improved legal institutions can result in divergent trade patterns for different economies. We provide evidence that the level of development governs the relevance of intellectual property rights (IPR) institutions in...

Artificial Intelligence is a powerful new technology that will likely have large impacts on the size, direction and composition of international trade flows. Yet almost nothing is known empirically about this. One AI-enabled set of services that can be tracked resides in the palm of our hands:...

This paper shows that manufacturing exporters export goods that they have not produced and thus also act as trade intermediaries. This exporting of “sourced” products is ubiquitous across firms, products, and destinations. Using the geographic dimension of the data, we uncover that almost...

This paper investigates how changes in skilled and unskilled labor supply affect different margins ofexports. Using bilateral trade data in manufacturing sectors of 34 countries from 1995 to 2010, we find thatmost of the impact of skilled labor on exports goes through the intensive margin,...

I develop a model of firm-to-firm search and matching to show that the impact of falling trade costs on firm sourcing decisions and consumer welfare depends on the relative size of search externalities in domestic and international markets. These externalities can be positive if firms share...

This paper links the US fiscal condition to the common variations in risk premia driving global risky asset prices. I find that deteriorations in the US fiscal condition i) coincide with elevated levels of global risk premia and ii) predict higher future global equity returns at short, medium...

"The Belt and Road Initiative promotes connectivity among countries and regions along the route and is a powerful tool for the Chinese government to respond to the rise of trade protectionism and the restructuring and shift of global industrial chains in the post-epidemic era. This study...

Customs data reveal heterogeneity and granularity of relationships among buyers and sellers. A key insight is how more exports to a destination break down into more firms selling there and more buyers per exporter. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of firm-to-firm matching...

Purpose: This study constructs a quantitative tool that can interpret the effects of trade protectionism on trading partners. Design/methodology/approach: Trade protectionist policies are a crucial phenomenon of international political economy. The existing literature has analyzed the...

We introduce a new dataset on British exports at the bilateral, commodity-level from 1700 to 1899. We then pit two primary determinants of bilateral trade against one another: the trade-diminishing effects of distance versus the trade-enhancing effects of the British Empire. We find that gravity...

In this paper, I review evidence on changing global specialization in labor-intensive exporting. Production of apparel, footwear, furniture, and related products are how many low-income countries first enter export manufacturing. Just as China's rise as a powerhouse in these goods supplanted a...

COVID-19 is expected to have contributed towards changing the geographical structure of world trade, including trade between individual EU countries and China. This article presents the results of an analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Sino‑EU trade flows. The research aims to...

Korea, a small open economy, is characterized by its high dependency on the international environment and this also applies at the municipal level. In the past, Korea’s economy grew by exporting goods of its main industries and in this process, certain strategically selected provinces paved...

How do countries specialize along global value chains (GVCs)? Models of Costinot et al. (2013) and Antràs and de Gortari (2020) predict more productive and centrally located countries specialize in more downstream stages where the costs of production errors and shipping are higher. I...

In recent decades, China has risen to become Germany’s most important trading partner for international trade in goods. Has Germany become too dependent from trade with China? An analysis using direct and indirect value-added linkages along the supply chain shows that China plays an important,...