Timely updates of business cycle fluctuations-commonly represented by movements in the output gap-help policymakers make informed decisions on the appropriate course of action. Unfortunately, business cycle assessments often suffer from lags in actual gross domestic product data releases. This...

We investigate cyclical changes in workers' task portfolios, highlighting their direction, magnitude, and distribution. Task changes are not only very common but provide information about the skills required across jobs. During recessions, a larger share of employer switches do not involve task...

By applying a simple dynamic general equilibrium model without exogenous shocks inhabited by infinitely lived capitalists and workers, we show that a higher degree of relative risk aversion can destabilize an economy. In traditional real business cycle (RBC) theory, a higher degree of relative...

Over the past few decades, fiscal policy has been about 30 percent more procyclical and about 40 percent more volatile in commodity-exporting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) than in other EMDEs. Both procyclicality and volatility of fiscal policy-which share some underlying...

Libya's economic outlook relies heavily on the oil and gas sector, which constitutes a significant portion of its GDP, government revenue, and exports. With oil production expected to average 1.1 mbpd in 2024, GDP is anticipated to shrink by 2.7 percent this year. As oil output recovers in 2025...

The special topic analyses the results of the questions on investment included in the October-November surveys for the manufacturing and services sectors, enquiring about business investment in 2024, as well as plans for 2025. On aggregate in the EU, managers' assessment of the change in...

I develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian...

Recent rises in macroeconomic volatility have prompted the introduction of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) models to forecast macroeconomic risk. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the predictive performance of QVAR models in a pseudo-out-of-sample experiment spanning 112...

Forward-looking metrics of uncertainty based on options-implied information should be highly predictive of equity market returns in accordance with asset pricing theory. Empirically, however, the ability of the VIX, for example, to predict returns is statistically weak. In contrast to other...

Malawi's economic recovery remains fragile due to the slow implementation of macroeconomic adjustment reforms and a series of recent shocks. Food insecurity remains a major concern due to weak harvests from 2022 to 2024 and the likelihood of a challenging 2024-25 season. Inflation is gradually...

The economy is estimated to have grown by 2.6 percent in 2024, surpassing expectations due to an unexpected surge in activity but the recovery continued to lag behind peers. The latest gross domestic product (GDP) release showed that growth picked up at 3.0 percent year-on-year in 2024 Q3. In Q3...

November economic activity data suggests gradual growth, driven by strong external demand, particularly for goods exports and tourism, as well as a slight recovery in private consumption supported by fiscal stimulus. While tourism remained a key growth driver, with a notable increase in...

Thailand's economy grew by 3.2 percent year-on-year in Q4 2024, driven by a rebound in public investment and strong electronics exports, while private consumption saw a modest boost from fiscal stimulus. High-frequency indicators in January suggest continued expansion, supported by strong goods...

South Sudan's socio-economic outcomes have worsened over the past decade due to recurrent conflicts, fragility, and macroeconomic mismanagement compounded by global economic and climate shocks. Even before the oil shock of early 2024, per capita gross domestic product had dropped by 18 percent...

The employment structure in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) differs markedly from that in advanced economies, which has implications for adjustment to cyclical conditions. This paper examines the cyclicality of employment in advanced economies and EMDEs. Although EMDEs exhibit...

Objective To estimate the effect of economic recessions on health inequality, with a focus on identifying recessions that have a health component. Methods This retrospective observational study uses the interannual rate of change in gross domestic product (GDP) as an indicator of economic...