Der Produktionsindex für die Gesamtwirtschaft ist ein neuer zusammengesetzter Konjunkturindikator. Er kombiniert vier Konjunkturindizes, die den größten Teil der Gewerblichen Wirtschaft abdecken: die Produktionsindizes für die Industrie, das Baugewerbe, den Dienstleistungssektor sowie den...

Die Weltwirtschaft ist derzeit von handelspolitischen Schocks und hoher Unsicherheit geprägt. Im Prognosezeitraum wird der Welthandel in Folge der schwächeren Weltkonjunktur und der bestehenden Handelskonflikte nur sehr verhalten expandieren. Er wird in diesem Jahr um 1,9 % und im kommenden...

This note provides extensive evidence on the persistence properties of real GDP in 17 European countries and in the US over the period 1960-2023 using a fractional integration framework. The analysis suggests that in all cases shocks have permanent effects on the level of real GDP. This is...

This study examines the characteristics of Indonesia's scholarly output and its alignment with national development goals. This research focuses on three key questions: how Indonesia's research output can be categorized into driver, basic, specialized, and declining clusters; the extent to which...

First-class universities play an extremely important role in cultivating high-quality talents and technological innovation, serving as a significant indicator of a country's level of higher education development, developmental strength, and potential. However, there is little literature studying...

This paper investigates the cyclicality of international reserves and their role in macroeconomic stabilization. We challenge two widely held assumptions: (1) central banks typically manage IR counter-cyclically—accumulating reserves during booms and drawing them down during downturns; and (2)...

This study has a twofold objective. The first one is an assessment of the efficiency of monetary and capital-based macroprudential policy, defined as imposing less interest costs to loan borrowers (nonfinancial corporations and households). The second objective of this paper is the assessment of...

In this paper, we first test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using a large sample of approximately 190 advanced and developing countries, over a period of 34 years (1989- 2022). We find that (CO2) emissions respond positively to increasing income per capita, up...

We construct estimates of quarterly GDP for Ireland from 1950, linking to official data from 1995 onward, using a novel factor-augmented Chow-Lin interpolation. Compared to the only alternative series (OECD, 2025), our procedure exploits the variation in a large number of official quarterly...

This study involves tasking ChatGPT with classifying an "activity sentiment score" based on PMI news releases. It explores the predictive power of this score for euro area GDP nowcasting. We find that the PMI text scores enhance GDP nowcasts beyond what is embedded in ECB/Eurosystem Staff...

We study the interconnection between the productivity and pricing effects of financial shocks. Combining administrative records on firm-level output prices and quantities with quasi-experimental variation in credit supply, we show that a tightening of credit conditions has a persistent, yet...

This paper explores the effects of monetary policy on economic growth, focusing on key economic indicators-namely, the exchange rate, interest rates, and the broad money supply (M3). To capture a comprehensive view of each country's economic landscape, additional variables such as inflation and...

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries prioritised economic growth and development, but continued to face persistent challenges like poverty, inequality, and sluggish progress in attaining sustainability. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to examine the impact of...

Many countries worldwide share borders that offer several benefits, such as easier access, faster knowledge transfer, and more efficient trade diplomacy. However, reliance on land-border trade alone has not been consistently shown to increase GDP per capita or vice versa. This study investigates...

The exchange rate is among the main variables determining foreign trade, as it affects the prices of both exports and imports. Meanwhile, Okun's misery index (MI) attempts to synthesize the main issues affecting a society by combining two major macroeconomic variables - unemployment and...

South Africa has been struggling with high levels of gross debt. The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened as the government has had to adjust its budget continuously, resulting in fiscal stance and debt sustainability becoming a matter of concern. This research aims to assess the possible asymmetric...

The evolving macroeconomic landscape, shaped by the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, poses significant challenges for economies worldwide. However, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries have demonstrated resilience and rapid recovery during crises,...

This paper presents a theory and model of long-run cycles in income inequality. The model explains the historical pattern of income distribution identified by Kuznets (1955) and Piketty (2014). It breaks with conventional marginal product theory which claims functional income distribution is...

The objective of the paper is to assess and compare the resilience of the post-Covid US and Eurozone economies. Quarterly growth rates (annualized) of the Real GDP of US and the Eurozone are forecasted between Q4 2023 and Q4 2050. Two sets of forecasts are generated: forecasts using historical...

We find that, while different models used to estimate the output gap in five major emerging economies show similar trends over time, they lead to different conclusions about how well the output gap can predict inflation. This suggests that the choice of model can significantly impact the...

This study examines the dynamic relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), renewable energy consumption, trade openness, and open innovation in the United States using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology. The analysis covers annual data...

The empirical findings of this study suggest a significant long-term relationship between the probability of mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among individuals aged 30-70 in Azerbaijan and key economic and social indicators, including Gross Domestic Product per Capita, Waged...

This study constructs a theoretical framework for technological progress (TP) on firm output (FOP) and examines the nonlinear influence between them. First, the empirical findings indicate that TP has a "positive U-shaped" correlation with FOP. This impact is particularly pronounced among firms...

Considering that most countries exhibit substantial disparities between the rich and the poor, there is a demand for a fresh perspective on the dynamics of a country's development and its potential for convergence. The article represents an attempt to use a comprehensive econometric framework to...

Germany is undergoing a major shift in fiscal policy. In response to recent crises and long-term structural challenges, the federal government has introduced a debt-financed spending package that marks a significant departure from past fiscal orthodoxy. This paper investigates the macroeconomic...

This paper describes the recent work to strengthen the nowcasting capacity at the Central Bank of Samoa (CBS). It compiles available high-frequency datasets such as tourism receipts, agriculture market survey, remittances, among others, to nowcast real GDP in Samoa. Nowcasting enables the...

In response to a request from Saint Lucia's Central Statistics Office (CSO), a technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from September 2-13, 2024, to support the development of experimental expenditure-based GDP (GDP-E) estimates as a complementary product to the existing production-based...