The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals emphasize the need to assist developing countries in achieving long-term debt sustainability. Global corporate debt has repeatedly reached record levels, and the associated financial costs pose a significant threat to sustainable development. This...

This paper assesses the exchange rate risk exposure of Tunisia's external public debt portfolio using the delta-normal Value at Risk (VaR) approach. Based on daily data from 2004 to 2019, focusing on the main borrowing currencies (the euro, US dollar, and Japanese yen), the study identifies the...

How does convenience yield interact with sovereign risk and the supply of government bonds? We propose a model of sovereign debt and default in which convenience yield arises because investors are able to pledge government bonds as collateral on financial markets. Convenience yield is dependent...

This paper investigates the goals, costs, and benefits of official-sector purchases of government securities for the purpose of restoring market functionality. We explore the design of market-function purchase programs, including their communication, triggers, operational protocols, exit, and...

ypical debt sustainability metrics characterize Kenya's sovereign debt as "unsustainable" since around 2019. Further, the data show that, over time, commercial banks' private sector lending has declined while lending to the government has grown. Given these observations, this study examines...

Political risk is a significant determinant of sovereign debt dynamics. We estimate the sensitivity of bond yields and economic growth to a country-level broad proxy of political risk and develop a stochastic debt sustainability analysis optimization model with both yields and growth channels to...

This paper studies the rapid increase since 2019 of Government of Canada (GoC) debt issuance alongside greater hedge fund participation at GoC bond auctions. We find a systematic relationship between GoC debt stock and hedge fund bidding shares at auction. We attribute this to hedge funds'...

Political risk is a significant determinant of bond yields and economic growth in both developed and emerging markets and we develop a debt sustainability analysis model with both channels using a country ratings proxy of political risk. Political risk also affects a sovereign's willingness to...

Large-scale debt forbearance is a key policy tool during crises, yet targeting is challenging due to information asymmetries. Using transaction-level data from a Portuguese bank during COVID-19, we find that financially fragile households are more likely to enter forbearance, irrespective of...

This study explores perceptions of public debt management among Debt Management Offices (DMOs) in low- and middle-income countries. Based on a survey conducted in October 2023 covering 27 countries, it examines DMOs' views on the relationship between public debt and economic growth, the...

ypical debt sustainability metrics characterize Kenya's sovereign debt as "unsustainable" since around 2019. Further, the data show that, over time, commercial banks' private sector lending has declined while lending to the government has grown. Given these observations, this study examines...

We examine the effects of debt distribution characteristics, specifically skewness and maturity concentration, on sovereign yields across OECD countries over the period 1995Q1 to 2020Q4. After computing specific Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients, we find that positive skewness generally exerts...

Using a monthly panel dataset of individuals' debt, we show that house price changes can explain a significant fraction of personal debt composition dynamics. We exploit the variation in local house price growth as shocks to homeowners' housing wealth to study the consequential adjustment of...

Following modest growth of 0.4% in 2023, the Commission's 2024 autumn forecast projects real GDP to rise by 0.9% in 2024. Economic activity is expected to accelerate to 1.5% in 2025 driven by stronger consumption and a rebound in investment from its contraction in 2024. In 2026, the economy is...

South Africa has been struggling with high levels of gross debt. The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened as the government has had to adjust its budget continuously, resulting in fiscal stance and debt sustainability becoming a matter of concern. This research aims to assess the possible asymmetric...

This research uses linear correlation and time-series analysis to examine the evolution of the external debt accumulated in periods of current account deficits and reserve purchases. Statistical data of GIPS countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain), Ireland, and the United States show that...

Political risk is a significant determinant of bond yields and economic growth in both developed and emerging markets and we develop a debt sustainability analysis model with both channels using a country ratings proxy of political risk. Political risk also affects a sovereign's willingness to...

This paper rethinks development finance in Tajikistan through the lens of fiscal sociology, arguing that sustained reliance on foreign aid and external borrowing may weaken state-society trust and erode institutional legitimacy. Anchored in the political economy of development finance, the paper...

There is a growing consensus that sovereign debt challenges in Africa are no longer only an issue of poor debt contraction and management practices, but that the sovereign debt architecture itself needs reform. Drawing on existing data, the literature and interviews with experts this study...

Three years of war have taken a staggering social, humanitarian, and economic toll. Efforts to end the war, and potential changes to international support retain the exceptionally high uncertainty to the outlook. Yet, the authorities' commitment to reforms and fulfillment of all necessary Fund...

Liechtenstein's fiscal framework has ensured surpluses, virtually no public debt, and accumulation of large fiscal buffers. Specialized, export-oriented industries and financial services based on private banking and wealth management underpin economic activity and high living standards,...

Membership of the European Union (EU), adoption of the euro, and integration in global value chains, have contributed to a convergence towards living standards of more advanced EU countries. However, progress has slowed in recent years, and like many other EU countries, Slovakia is facing...

Economic recovery has continued, but growth remains subdued. Structural and governance weaknesses, ongoing internal conflicts and security concerns, social tensions around presidential elections in October 2025, and climate hazards continue to hinder the growth outlook, which is also unfavorably...

The economy has been resilient to a series of shocks, but growth is slowing, and disinflation is facing headwinds. The labor market has been strong but shows early signs of cooling. Labor-cost competitiveness has declined with wage growth outpacing sluggish productivity. Successive shocks have...

Following a strong rebound in economic activity in 2021, real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 2.8 percent last year. Meanwhile, inflation jumped to 7¼ percent, and the current account deficit rose sharply partly reflecting higher commodity prices and despite a narrowing of the fiscal...

At the request of the authorities, a joint World Bank-IMF technical assistance (TA) mission visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan during October 9-20, 2023 to help the authorities in developing a mediumterm debt management strategy (MTDS), designing an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP), and to train the...

Political uncertainty remains high with another change of government in July 2024-the fifth since the beginning of the Fund-supported program. Substantial flooding and landslides in September 2024 further weighed on sluggish domestic demand, though conversely helping strengthen the external...

Healthy tourist arrivals and an expansionary fiscal stance have supported the economy and helped reduce unemployment, while inflation is declining rapidly on the back of lower commodity prices. The financial sector is broadly healthy, but credit growth has been sluggish, except in the rapidly...