In this paper, we propose a component-based dynamic factor model for nowcasting GDP growth. We combine ideas from "bottom-up" approaches, which utilize the national income accounting identity through modelling and predicting sub-components of GDP, with a dynamic factor (DF) model, which is...

We study a dynamic principal-agent setting in which both sides learn about the importance of effort. The quality of the agent's output is not observed directly. Instead, the principal jointly designs an evaluation technology and a wage schedule. More precise performance evaluation reduces...

We develop a new method for deriving high-frequency synthetic distributions of consumption, income, and wealth. Modern theories of macroeconomic dynamics identify the joint distribution of consumption, income, and wealth as a key determinant of aggregate dynamics. Our novel method allows us to...

In the past two decades, the design and implementation of living donor kidney exchange clearinghouses have been a major success story in market design. Instead of batching and optimizing exchanges over a fixed pool of incompatible patient-donor pairs, the busiest programs now operate...

This paper studies a dynamic ordered logit model for panel data with fixed effects. The main contribution of the paper is to construct a set of valid moment conditions that are free of the fixed effects. The moment functions can be computed using four or more periods of data, and the paper...

We study a discrete-time optimal growth model with endogenous discounting. The discount factor may depend on both consumption and the capital stock, and intertemporal utility is modeled as a discounted sum of instantaneous utilities, with the sum of discount factors equal to one. We show that...

This paper introduces the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index, a novel indicator measuring evolving global trade policy dynamics since the Global Financial Crisis. Using a Dynamic Factor Model on comprehensive trade policy data covering 197 countries and territories, we document a structural shift...

The existing literature on large dynamic factor models invariably assumes that the cross sectional covariance matrix is diagonal. This is due to the curse of dimensionality which means that many parameters need to be estimated for large data sets. This paper introduces a novel maximum likelihood...

Until recently literature on dynamic factor models invariably assumed that the cross sectional error covariance matrix is diagonal. This is due to the many parameters which need to be estimated for large data sets, which is known as the curse of dimensionality. Spencer (2024) introduced a novel...

It is common to transform data to stationarity, such as by differencing and demeaning, before estimating factor models in macroeconomics. Imposing these transformations, however, limit opportunities to learn about trending behaviour. Trends and deterministic processes can play a central role in...

We study the interaction between an agent of uncertain type, whose project gives rise to both good and bad news, and an evaluator who must decide if and when to fire the agent. The agent can hide bad news from the evaluator at some cost, and will do so if this secures her a significant increase...

Besley and Persson (2023) pioneer a political economy model of a green transition with changing preferences. Here we solve for the optimal policy intervention and find that the optimal tax on the polluting good starts high and is subsequently declining, to support the transition in preferences....

This paper introduces a novel dynamic factor model designed to capture common locally explosive episodes, also known as common bubbles, within large-dimensional, potentially non-stationary time series. The model leverages a lower-dimensional set of factors exhibiting locally explosive behavior...

China and India, two Asian countries that experienced a rapid decline in fertility since the middle of the twentieth century, are the focus of this paper. Although there is no doubt that lower fertility levels have many positive effects on the economy, development and sustainability, little is...

This paper employs a dynamic multi-sector growth model with changing technology to study the relevance of the price and quantity dimensions involved in the technical substitution of carbon-intensive technology, that is, the low-carbon transition. For the framing of the transition, the stylized...

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between firm leverage and risktaking. We embed the traditional agency problem of asset substitution within a multi-period model, revealing a U-shaped relationship between leverage and risktaking, evident in data from both the U.S. and Europe. Firms...

This paper addresses the poor performance of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in the estimation of low-noise dynamic factor models, commonly used in macroeconomic forecasting and nowcasting. We show analytically and in Monte Carlo simulations how the EM algorithm stagnates in a...