Using a customized survey and an information-provision experiment, we establish that loan officers' individual subjective expectations about inflation, GDP growth, and policy rates vary substantially within and across bank types and have a sizable causal effect on credit supply decisions....

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts at short, medium, and very-long horizons, we provide new stylized facts about survey forecasts. We present direct evidence that forecasters use multivariate models in an environment with imperfect information about...

We demonstrate the asset pricing implications of investors' belief heterogeneity in the frequency of news arrival and its joint impact with heterogeneous beliefs about news content. Investors trade volatility derivatives against each other to speculate on the rate of news arrival: greater...

Models of female labor supply routinely assume that women have accurate expectations about post-birth employment, but little is known about whether this assumption holds. We use a 2019 state-contingent survey of 11,000 Danish women linked to administrative data to compare pre-birth beliefs to...

I study the impact of domestic and foreign geopolitical risk (GPR) on economic expectations, and how trade linkages affect the transmission of foreign risks. Using monthly professional forecasts since 1995, I start by estimating the effect of GPR events on the distribution of expectations across...

Using a randomized control trial of approximately 1,000 firm pairs in New Zealand that have a customer-supplier relationship, we provide an information treatment to analyze both the direct effects on expectations and actions of firms receiving this information and the spillover effects on...

We examine how speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, including regional Fed presidents, shape private sector expectations. Speeches that signal rising inflationary pressures prompt both households and professional forecasters to raise their inflation expectations, consistent...

In social dilemmas, cooperation failures often arise due to the absence of mechanisms that prevent free-riding and enhance cooperation. Given the critical role these mechanisms play in sustaining cooperation, why are they so frequently missing? To explore this, we conducted an online experiment...

The ifo Business Climate Index is one of the most important leading indicators for the German economy. It is based on a monthly survey of approximately 9,000 firms and reflects responses to two core questions: the assessment of the firms' current business situation and their expectations for the...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

Different methods of eliciting long-run expectations yield data that predict economic choices differently well. We ask members of a wide population sample to make a 10-year investment decision and to forecast stock market returns in one of two formats: they either predict the average of annual...

Different methods of eliciting long-run expectations yield data that predict economic choices differently well. We ask members of a wide population sample to make a 10-year investment decision and to forecast stock market returns in one of two formats: they ei- ther predict the average of annual...

Mental models help people navigate complex environments. This paper studies how people deal with model uncertainty. In an experiment, participants estimate a company's value, facing uncertainty about which one of two models correctly deter- mines its true value. Using a between-subjects design,...

Mental models help people navigate complex environments. This paper studies how people deal with model uncertainty. In an experiment, participants estimate a company's value, facing uncertainty about which one of two models correctly determines its true value. Using a between-subjects design, we...

This paper investigates how shifts in local labor markets influence maternal expectations about future support from their children, and how those expectations affect adolescents' socio-emotional development. Using panel data from the Young Lives study in Peru (Rounds 4 and 5), the analysis...

We analyse how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions influence income expectations, their uncertainty, and expectation errors. We use a uniquely rich longitudinal Dutch survey collecting detailed information on the distribution of household income expectations. Our results show that...

We study how monetary policy affects inflation uncertainty. Using a survey of Mexican firms and exploiting quasi-random variation in the response date, we estimate the effect of a monetary policy decision and surprise on firms perceived inflation uncertainty. We find that a one percentage point...

This study examines how overconfidence shapes individuals' preference for redistribution. We contend that overconfidence inflates individuals' income expectations, which reduces the perceived benefits of redistribution for these individuals and thereby weakens their preference for such policies....

We study beliefs about fiscal dominance using a survey of German households. We first design and conduct a randomized controlled trial to identify how fiscal news impacts individuals' debt-to-GDP and inflation expectations. We document that the link between debt and inflation crucially depends...

This paper estimates a New Keynesian model with a nonlinearity in the monetary policy rule to capture the practice of inflation targeting with target zones or tolerance bands. Private-sector agents form subjective expectations, update their beliefs over time using a perceived model of the...

We study anchoring effects in the elicitation of multidimensional beliefs within a single survey task using a representative sample of the German voting-age population. Respondents estimated governmentspending levels across several domains (e.g., education, defense, social security), with...

We study anchoring effects in the elicitation of multidimensional beliefs within a single survey task using a representative sample of the German voting-age population. Respondents estimated government-spending levels across several domains (e.g., education, defense, social security), with...

This paper uses data on 5-year gasoline price expectations from the US Michigan Survey of Consumers to investigate their role as a transmission channel for gasoline price shocks. Specifically, a Structural VAR model is estimated to carry out counterfactual analysis which shows that gasoline...