We document that compared to all other investor groups investment funds exhibit a distinctly procyclical behavior when financial-market beliefs about the probability of a euro-related, institutional rare disaster spike. In response to such euro disaster risk shocks, investment funds shed...

We examine whether loan portfolio sectoral specialization provides informational advantages to banks, enabling better credit risk assessment. Using euro area credit register data, we compare probabilities of default assigned by specialized and non-specialized banks to the same borrowing firm...

The objective of this article is to present the results of an analysis of how the form of activities of EU banking groups affected their decisions to purchase non-euro area EU government bonds during the COVID-19 pandemic. The dataset consists of the portfolios of government bonds (including...

In this paper, we analyse the effects on the economies of the European Union and the rest of the world, of several austerity policies implemented by the Southern European countries, i.e., Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain. In particular, we simulate the reduction in one point in the government...

In the Hellenistic era, there was widespread convergence to the Attic standard and a similar narrowing of coin types in terms of aesthetics. The competition between issuers resulted in an equilibrium in which improvements to the consistency and quality of money were sought after. This...

We combine modern methods from Speech Emotion Recognition and Natural Language Processing with high-frequency financial data to precisely analyze how the vocal emo- tions and language of ECB President Mario Draghi affect the yields and yield spreads of major euro area economies. This novel...

One of the main goals of launching the EU's second Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II) and the respective Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation (MiFIR) was to increase the transparency of transactions in financial markets. Prior to MiFID II, transparency requirements in...

We provide new evidence on the effects of adopting a common European currency on banks' profitability in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. We construct a panel of 1033 bank-year observations across 11 countries between 2006 and 2020. Our results suggest that the effect of the eurozone...

This paper examines the rise of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) and its implications for financial stability and monetary policy transmission in the Euro Area and the United States. While the U.S. financial system has long been market-based, the Euro Area has experienced a striking...

This paper examines how the ECB's 2022-2023 interest-rate hikes affected euro-area banks' economic net worth and vulnerability to deposit runs. Drawing on granular, confidential data for 139 banks, we estimate each bank's economic net worth and find that unrealised losses on loans and bonds...

We document that compared to all other investor groups investment funds exhibit a distinctly procyclical behavior when financial-market beliefs about the probability of a euro-related, institutional rare disaster spike. In response to such euro disaster risk shocks, investment funds shed...

We compute a common factor summarising asymmetries in the expected distributions of a large set of survey-based economic data series for the euro area. This expected skewness factor is distinct from lower-moment factors and can help improve forecasts of risks to economic activity. In addition,...

The management report is an integral part of the ECB's Annual Accounts and is designed to provide readers with contextual information related to the financial statements. Given that the ECB's activities and operations are undertaken in support of its policy objectives, the ECB's financial...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised upwards for 2025 from the previous survey (conducted in the fourth quarter of 2024) and were largely unchanged thereafter. At the same time, core inflation...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised upwards for 2025 from the previous survey (conducted in the fourth quarter of 2024) and were largely unchanged thereafter. At the same time, core inflation...

The euro area experienced an unprecedented surge of inflation in 2021 and 2022 followed by a decline in 2023 and 2024. The ECB raised policy rates too late. Simple rules would have prescribed an earlier response. The policy easing since summer 2024, however, is quite in line with such rules....

This paper examines the impact of US protectionist trade policies on the euro area economy, focusing on macroeconomic and financial repercussions. While direct tariff effects are mitigated by exchange rate adjustments and ECB policies, broader risks arise from global trade disruptions and...

This paper examines the impact of US protectionist trade policies on the euro area economy, focusing on macroeconomic and financial repercussions. While direct tariff effects are mitigated by exchange rate adjustments and ECB policies, broader risks arise from global trade disruptions and...

Were the US to impose large and lasting tariffs on its imports from the EU, the effect on the euro area (EA) would be substantial and far-reaching. We expect the direct impact to be inflationary in the US and contractionary on EA aggregate demand and output. The indirect impact through an...

Persistently high geopolitical and policy uncertainty is expected to weigh on euro area economic growth, slowing down the anticipated recovery. This follows slightly weaker than expected growth at the end of 2024. Both domestic and trade policy uncertainty are high. Although the baseline...

The euro area experienced an unprecedented surge of inflation in 2021 and 2022 followed by a decline in 2023 and 2024. The ECB raised policy rates too late. Simple rules would have prescribed an earlier response. The policy easing since summer 2024, however, is quite in line with such rules....

Were the US to impose large and lasting tariffs on its imports from the EU, the effect on the euro area (EA) would be substantial and far-reaching. We expect the direct impact to be inflationary in the US and contractionary on EA aggregate demand and output. The indirect impact through an...

This study seeks to provide a concise and succinct overview of the structure, key facts and figures, and rules and procedures of the EU budget, and informs about the latest developments in EU finances and budgeting. It aims to serve both as a reference guide for experienced EU budget actors and...

Persistently high geopolitical and policy uncertainty is expected to weigh on euro area economic growth, slowing down the anticipated recovery. This follows slightly weaker than expected growth at the end of 2024. Both domestic and trade policy uncertainty are high. Although the baseline...

Based on original archival research, interviews, media sources and wide ranging academic literature, this study focuses on the European Parliament's leading and agenda-setting role in the process of European monetary integration. Important initiatives included the 1962 Van Campen Report on the...

The special topic examines the impact of selected factors on consumers' views of their country's economic situation, based on a supplementary ad hoc question added to the February/March 2025 waves of the consumer survey. The analysis assesses the responses at the EU level, as well as by country...

The Eurosystem's Advisory Group on Market Infrastructures for Securities and Collateral (AMI-SeCo) has set the goal of harmonising the processing of corporate actions (CA), based on the ISO 20022 standard. In December 2017 the AMI-SeCo identified a series of harmonisation needs, which served as...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2025,1expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 and 2026 but remained unchanged for 2027 and the longer-term. At the same time, core inflation expectations, as measured by the...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 and 2026 but remained unchanged for 2027 and the longer-term. At the same time, core inflation expectations, as measured by the...

We examine the differential impact of monetary policy and macroprudential policy on bank lending rates in the euro area, using granular corporate loan-level data for the period 2019- 2023. We find three results: First, consistent with the predictions of a stylized theoretical model of bank...