We provide initial estimates of the additional weapons and troops Europe will need to defend itself, assuming an effective US withdrawal from Europe. Russia's military production has ramped up: In 2024, Russia produced and refurbished an estimated 1,550 tanks, 5,700 armoured vehicles and 450...

Wir liefern erste Schätzungen über die zusätzlichen Waffen und Truppen, die Europa zur Selbstverteidigung benötigen würde, falls sich die USA aus Europa zurückziehen. Die russische Militärproduktion wurde hochgefahren: Es wurden schätzungsweise 1.550 Panzer, 5.700 gepanzerte Fahrzeuge...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that...

Die Unzulänglichkeiten der Bahn in Deutschland sind bekannt: Zugausfälle, Verspätungen, Streckensperrungen, Stellwerk- und Signalprobleme. Doch was muss getan werden, um ihre Leistungen zu verbessern? Die Studie vergleicht die Situation in Deutschland mit der in Österreich, der Schweiz,...

Seit dem Beginn des russischen Angriffskriegs im Februar 2022 hat sich die ukrainische Wirtschaftsleistung stark verringert. Gemäß Schätzungen internationaler Organisationen belief sich das ukrainische BIP Ende 2024 auf real rund 77 Prozent des Vorkriegsniveaus. Hinzu kommen massive...

Globale Krisen zeigen die Anfälligkeit von Lieferketten, besonders in Deutschland und Europa. Strukturelle Veränderungen wie Digitalisierung, Dekarbonisierung und regionale Sicherheit erhöhen den Bedarf an importierten Rohstoffen. Bestehende Abhängigkeiten werden dadurch vertieft,...

This article analyses aspects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in its international context from a game theory perspective, with particular attention to the possible use of the brinkmanship strategy by US President Donald Trump.

Europe can no longer rely on the United States for its defence but is currently lacking essential capabilities to assure security itself. European countries should not give up on NATO but seek to close capability gaps by developing the European defence industrial base. The EU can play an...

Vladimir Putin underestimated the war against Ukraine on several levels, both in terms of the response within Ukraine and, above all, in terms of the response from the US and Europe. What can we learn from this? What policies should Europe pursue? What signals should it send to Putin to prevent...

The security situation in Europe and Germany has fundamentally changed, particularly due to Russia's war of aggression and the declining reliability of transatlantic security guarantees. At the same time, the global race for technological supremacy is intensifying. Germany must now initiate a...

The process of transition and growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides interesting insights, considering the countries' historical relationship with the Soviet Union. The 20 years after the Eastern enlargement of the European Union show an integrative power within the Single Market....

Mithilfe einer Expertenkommission möchte die Bundesregierung noch dieses Jahr die Schuldenbremse modernisieren. Wir schlagen ihr eine Agenda von fünf Punkten vor: Sie sollte (1) die komplexe Fiskalbürokratie vereinfachen, (2) die deutschen Regeln wieder kompatibel mit den europäischen...

• Die Unsicherheit im Markt für US-Staatsanleihen nimmt zu und Investoren suchen nach Alternativen. Für Europa entsteht daraus eine historische Chance, einen großen und liquiden europäischen Anleihenmarkt zu schaffen und dadurch die Finanzierungskosten europäischer Staatsschulden zu...

Ressourcenverbrauchs zu verhindern, und sie kann eine Lösung für die massive Abhängigkeit von Rohstoffen aus anderen Ländern sein. Die EU hat seit dem Start ihres Aktionsplans für eine Kreislaufwirtschaft im Jahr 2015 mehrere Maßnahmen dafür vorgeschlagen, darunter eine Initiative, die...

In den vergangenen Monaten haben sich die Debatten darüber verschärft, ob Europa noch auf die erweiterte nukleare Abschreckung der USA vertrauen kann - oder ob es eigene Alternativen dazu erwägen muss. Ein bloßer Entweder-oder-Ansatz erhellt hier aber wenig. Es bedarf einer differenzierten...

Climate change can cause large economic disruptions by introducing new risks to supply chains and changing demand patterns. This economic memo explores how climate change, via its impact on global temperatures, transmits to inflation in Europe, with a countryspecific focus on Denmark, Norway and...

This paper identifies existing labour market challenges associated with ageing in Europe and Central Asia. It presents a general overview and provides ideas to stimulate social dialogue. In 2024, there were 28 persons aged 65 years and above per 100 persons aged 15 to 64 years and this ratio is...

The level of government support significantly influences the performance of European railways. However, prior analyses have largely focused on the sector as a whole, neglecting the distribution of public budget contributions between the upstream infrastructure manager and downstream service...

Die Mitgliedstaaten der Europäischen Union streiten wieder einmal über Geld. Genauer gesagt darüber, wie viel Geld sie für Verteidigung zahlen wollen, woher dieses Geld kommen soll und ob sie es gemeinsam ausgeben möchten. Unstrittig ist in Brüssel und den Hauptstädten, dass Europa sich...

This note provides extensive evidence on the persistence properties of real GDP in 17 European countries and in the US over the period 1960-2023 using a fractional integration framework. The analysis suggests that in all cases shocks have permanent effects on the level of real GDP. This is...

The immigrant population increased by 32 million in 37 European countries from 1990-2019. Much of this movement was internal, from east to west Europe. Although both the destination and origin countries could be affected, we find no effects on aggregate subjective well-being in either group,...

The main purpose of the article is to analyze the inter-organizational cooperation of enterprises for innovation in the Polish economy compared to the rest of Europe. The micro perspective assesses in detail the scope and scale of cooperation of Polish enterprises with selected stakeholders of...

This paper contributes to the literature on migrants' labour-market disadvantages by considering one dimension that has received limited attention in Europe: their occupations' (relative) physical arduousness. To quantify their arduousness gap, the paper combines i) data from the European Labour...

Globale Krisen zeigen die Anfälligkeit von Lieferketten, besonders in Deutschland und Europa. Strukturelle Veränderungen wie Digitalisierung, Dekarbonisierung und regionale Sicherheit erhöhen den Bedarf an importierten Rohstoffen. Bestehende Abhängigkeiten werden dadurch vertieft,...

Human capital is now widely acknowledged as one of the key determinants of economic growth. Research on how human skills accumulate and evolve through time has grown rapidly in recent years. This paper surveys it with a specific focus on Europe in the period 1830s–1930s. Our contribution is...

Drawing on two data sources from across Europe, we show that both bequest motives of parents and children’s gender composition shape unequal divisions of bequests. First, the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe reveals that observed bequests are divided unequally when children...

The process of transition and growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides interesting insights, considering the countries' historical relationship with the Soviet Union. The 20 years after the Eastern enlargement of the European Union show an integrative power within the Single Market....

This study provides new panel evidence on the effects on climate risk on financial stability in the European banking sector using yearly data over the period 2000-2021. More specifically, the impact of a number of climate risk indices on the Z-score (capturing the probability of default of a...

In this paper, we use the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), complemented with register data on the share of the foreign population in the European regions, to examine the effects of migration on the level of informal care provided by children to their senior parents....

Comprehensive information on energy-related topics, such as take-up of heat pumps, industrial natural gas consumption and prices, and battery connections to the electricity grid, is either not available in Europe in a timely manner, or not available at the level of granularity, reliability and...

European NATO members must raise defence spending by enough to deter through strength an irredentist Russia. This must be done possibly without the United States and when ageing populations demand higher social spending. Raising defence spending to sufficient levels could result in a doubling of...

The primary policy response to population ageing in advanced economies has been to raise the mandatory retirement age. However, these policies have reignited calls for differentiated retirement ages that take into account variations in work intensity. This paper utilises microdata to examine the...

In den vergangenen Monaten haben sich die Debatten darüber verschärft, ob Europa noch auf die erweiterte nukleare Abschreckung der USA vertrauen kann - oder ob es eigene Alternativen dazu erwägen muss. Ein bloßer Entweder-oder-Ansatz erhellt hier aber wenig. Es bedarf einer differenzierten...

In recent months, there has been an intensifying debate over whether Europe can still rely on US extended nuclear deterrence or should begin to consider alternatives that are independent of Washington. A binary approach - trust or no trust - is of limited analytical value here; the subject matter...

Extreme heat is becoming one of the most lethal and underestimated threats to cities in Europe and Central Asia, exacerbating health risks, undermining productivity, and pushing infrastructure to its limits. This report presents new analysis showing that without urgent adaptation, heat-related...

Using deal-level micro data from the Dealroom database, we construct a dynamic co-investment syndication network to examine the influence of cultural proximity and geospatial proximity between investors and start-ups, as well as the network position of global VC firms on investment decisions in...