Analyzing U.S. House elections (2002-2010), measures of legislators' effectiveness, and exogenous increases in Chinese import competition, we document a conditional relationship between legislative effectiveness and electoral success. In districts ex-posed to large trade shocks, incumbent...

Using a novel dataset in a difference-in-differences framework, I study the political implications of the change in policies protecting drought-impacted communities in Tunisia in 3088 districts. In 2016, the Tunisian government had drastically reduced support to farmers affected by droughts. I...

This is the first of four articles on the 2025 German federal elections, continuing our analysis of the 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021 elections. We begin with the 2023/24 electoral reform, which aimed to curb the uncontrolled growth of the Bundestag caused by political developments not envisaged in...

Elections in fragile democracies are not merely contests over policy but battles for control over state resources, including foreign aid. Aid provides local governments with substantial discretionary funds, creating strong incentives for rent-seeking political actors to capture political office....

This is the second out of four papers on the 2025 German federal elections continuing our analysis of the 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021 Bundestag elections. We estimate the policy representation ability of the 29 parties that participated in the 2025 elections and of the 2025 Bundestag. For this...

This is the third out four papers on the 2025 German Bundestag elections continuing our analysis of the 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021 elections. In particular, this paper contributes to the discussion of the imperfection of the German 2023/24 Electoral reform in [Tangian 2025a]. We show that policy...

This paper investigates how concurrent national and local elections affect the local political participation and competition. Leveraging a quasi-experimental framework provided by Italy's staggered electoral timing, the paper employs a difference-in-differences design. Estimates reveal that...

This paper examines how natural disasters shape electoral preferences by analyzing the impact of earthquakes in Italy between 1990 and 2019. Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences design, we estimate that affected municipalities are more likely to elect female, more educated, and older city...

In the 2024 European Parliament elections turnout varied significantly across EU Member States, influenced by institutional factors such as compulsory voting and concurrent elections. Socioeconomic disparities persisted; older, higher-educated, and wealthier citizens were more likely to vote,...

In the 2024 European Parliament elections turnout varied significantly across EU Member States, influenced by institutional factors such as compulsory voting and concurrent elections. Socioeconomic disparities persisted; older, higher-educated, and wealthier citizens were more likely to vote,...

The European Electoral Act decrees that the Members of the European Parliament shall be elected on the basis of proportional representation, using the list system or the single transferable vote. There is much leeway for a Member State to turn terms like "proportional representation" or "the...

The European Electoral Act decrees that the Members of the European Parliament shall be elected on the basis of proportional representation, using the list system or the single transferable vote. There is much leeway for a Member State to turn terms like "proportional representation" or "the...

We examine whether anti-establishment outsider movements can leverage education and youth mobilization to build long-run political power. We study the expansion of state-run religious secondary schools in 1970s Türkiye and show that access to these schools catalyzed the emergence of Islamist...

This paper examines the electoral cycle and the conduct of the central government’s fiscal policy. It uses a panel database with disaggregated spending and revenue series for 34 middle-income countries over 2000-2022. A dynamic panel approach was used to look at overall government spending and...

On 3 December 2024, the then-President of the Republic of Korea (ROK) Yoon Suk-yeol triggered the gravest political crisis in the country since its democratisation by declaring martial law in a televised address. Yoon justified martial law as a response to what he dubbed the "legislative...

This paper examines Political Budget Cycles in federal systems, focusing on how a central incumbent allocates discretionary transfers across states in response to electoral incentives. We develop a theoretical model predicting that average discretionary transfers increase during federal election...

This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. Using a Regression Discontinuity design, we find that, compared to male mayors, female mayors significantly reduce greenhouse gas...

In this paper, we unveil targeted repression against journalists as an elaborate strategy used by modern autocrats to mitigate the risk of mass protests during autocratic elections-a common threat to their rule. Repression is deployed to discipline the media before elections to secure favorable...

In this paper, we unveil targeted repression against journalists as an elaborate strategy used by modern autocrats to mitigate the risk of mass protests during autocratic elections—a common threat to their rule. Repression is deployed to discipline the media before elections to secure...

This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. We rely on a Regression Discontinuity design that compares municipalities where women narrowly won the election with those where...

This report compiles our recent comment on Ahmed, Hodler, and Islam (2024, AHI-2024) and our response to the authors' reply to our comment. Our report is one element in a concerted forensic reproduction of studies based on data collected by GDRI, a Bangladesh-based survey company. We appreciate...

We document an overrepresentation of politicians on corporate boards using data for Swiss federal legislators in 1931-2015. However, a close-election regression discontinuity design shows that electoral success explains at most a small part of this overrepresentation. We find small and mostly...

Racist attacks and incidents frequently spark anti-racist protest campaigns. This research examines the effect of such mobilization on voting behavior in subsequent national and European elections. We focus on two periods of anti-racist demonstra-tions in Germany that followed 1) the killing of...

In the face of the 2024 European Parliament elections, the study at hand investigates the role of work, working conditions, and workers' voice for (anti-)democratic attitudes and far-right voting intentions. For this purpose, primary survey data was collected among the labour force in ten EU...

We study the electoral repercussions of the L'Aquila earthquake in 2009, one of Italy's most catastrophic post-WWII seismic events. We construct a unique municipality-level dataset, combining high-resolution data on the ground acceleration recorded during the earthquake with European election...

We study the interaction of climate policies and investments into fossil and renewable energy generation capacity under political uncertainty caused by democratic elections. We develop an overlapping generations model, where elected governments determine carbon taxation and green investment...

We investigate how reducing information costs through forced experimentation with postal voting, while holding administrative rules fixed, affects subsequent voting behavior. Leveraging a natural experiment during Bavaria’s 2020 Mayoral Elections and drawing on municipality-level...