The European Union's goal of carbon neutrality by 2050 requires a major reduction in natural gas use for residential heating. However, gas grid equipment, amortized over 45 years in most countries, risks becoming stranded assets. The literature suggests that regulatory shocks could justify...

Gasspeicher sind ein zentraler Baustein für eine sichere Energieversorgung und damit für eine funktionierende Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Derzeit bietet der Markt jedoch kaum Anreize, die Gasspeicher zu nutzen oder in deren Erhalt zu investieren. Im Gegenteil: Seit November letzten Jahres...

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to model it accurately. This paper introduces a novel suite of Bayesian VAR models for euro area HICP energy inflation, which adopts a granular, bottom-up approach - disaggregating...

Geopolitics is an overarching characteristic of much of this outlook for the key themes in the global energy economy in 2025. The start of Donald Trump's second term in the White House will herald new pressures to multiple layers of the global economy, from trade to labour, monetary policy to...

The European Union's goal of carbon neutrality by 2050 requires a major reduction in natural gas use for residential heating. However, gas grid equipment, amortized over 45 years in most countries, risks becoming stranded assets. The literature suggests that regulatory shocks could justify...

Geopolitics is an overarching characteristic of much of this outlook for the key themes in the global energy economy in 2025. The start of Donald Trump’s second term in the White House will herald new pressures to multiple layers of the global economy, from trade to labour, monetary policy to...

Gasspeicher sind ein zentraler Baustein für eine sichere Energieversorgung und damit für eine funktionierende Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Derzeit bietet der Markt jedoch kaum Anreize, die Gasspeicher zu nutzen oder in deren Erhalt zu investieren. Im Gegenteil: Seit November letzten Jahres...

Natural gas is a crucial element of energy supply in Great Britain (GB). The vast majority of GB gas consumption occurs in three main sectors: industry, Local Distribution Zone (residential, commercial, and services), and power generation. While there are strong seasonal patterns of demand...

The financial losses recorded by Gazprom in 2023 driven by collapsing gas export revenue point to a wider transition in the role of the company, which has been at the heart of Russia's energy economy since the Soviet period. In the pre-crisis period, Gazprom was able to subsidize gas supply to...

In 2020, the Chinese coal chemical industry processed nearly one quarter of national coal throughput, and accounted for about 5.4 per cent of national CO2 emissions. Yet the coal chemicals' industry ability to limit oil and gas imports is appealing to the Chinese leadership in the context of...

Oil and gas revenues have underpinned the Russian economy for decades. As a result, they are an obvious target for sanctions from countries wishing to punish Russia for the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, the impact of hydrocarbons from Russia on the...

This report explores the EU's bold efforts to diversify energy sources, ramp up renewable energy use, and enforce stringent energy efficiency measures amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis. Discover to what extent the EU has overcome infrastructural and...

This article examines the challenges Azerbaijan faced on the Eve of COP29. Assessing the situation in Azerbaijan regarding energy, ecology, and climate finance issues, the author systematizes the critical problems to be solved in this field and draws attention to Azerbaijan's policy on the Eve...

This gas-focused edition of the Oxford Energy Forum updates the scorecard on the key issues driving medium to long-term gas demand prospects in key consuming countries. Whether it is European climate policy and the regulation of decarbonized gases, the demand outlook for Asian industrial...

In 2020, the Chinese coal chemical industry processed nearly one quarter of national coal throughput, and accounted for about 5.4 per cent of national CO2 emissions. Yet the coal chemicals’ industry ability to limit oil and gas imports is appealing to the Chinese leadership in the context of...

We present tail risk analysis of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin), non-fungible tokens, stocks (FTSE 100 and S&P 500) and Gold from November 12, 2017 to March 31, 2022 using conditional model-based Value-at-Risk (VaR). We explored which model specification and distributional...

This paper examines how the economic relations between China and the Central Asian countries affect the economic development of the Central Asian countries in the context of the Belt and Road economy. China has come up with the global economic strategy initiative known as '"'One Belt, One Road"...

The financial losses recorded by Gazprom in 2023 driven by collapsing gas export revenue point to a wider transition in the role of the company, which has been at the heart of Russia’s energy economy since the Soviet period. In the pre-crisis period, Gazprom was able to subsidize gas supply to...

This paper develops a new class of multivariate models for large-dimensional time-varying covariance matrices, called Cholesky generalized autoregressive score (GAS) models, which are based on the Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix and assume that the parameters are score-driven....

This report explores the EU's bold efforts to diversify energy sources, ramp up renewable energy use, and enforce stringent energy efficiency measures amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis. Discover to what extent the EU has overcome infrastructural and...

Oil and gas revenues have underpinned the Russian economy for decades. As a result, they are an obvious target for sanctions from countries wishing to punish Russia for the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, the impact of hydrocarbons from Russia on the...

The oil and gas trade is one of the main ways to promote regional economic development by improving the effectiveness of resource allocation. While regional energy cooperation could lead to growth in the energy trade, blind investment will reduce effective yields. Kazakhstan and China maintain a...

The oil and gas trade is one of the main ways to promote regional economic development by improving the effectiveness of resource allocation. While regional energy cooperation could lead to growth in the energy trade, blind investment will reduce effective yields. Kazakhstan and China maintain a...

We present tail risk analysis of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin), non-fungible tokens, stocks (FTSE 100 and S&P 500) and Gold from November 12, 2017 to March 31, 2022 using conditional model-based Value-at-Risk (VaR). We explored which model specification and distributional...

In order to achieve the commonly agreed emission reduction target, the European Commission called upon the member states to submit National Energy and Climate Plans to ensure increased transparency for the respective national targets and strategies. An analysis of these plans shows that some...

In 2022, the global LNG market faced exceptional levels of turbulence, as European gas buyers sought to offset the loss of Russian pipeline supply with an unprecedented increase in LNG imports. The ability of European buyers to access those LNG supplies was facilitated by the flexibility...

The Indian gas sector is expected to be one of the world's fastest-growing markets over the next two decades. Yet there is a wide divergence of views around India's future gas demand and the potential for gas to reach this share. The affordability of gas remains central to this ambition. The...

In this latest edition of our Key Themes series we examine a number of topics which we believe will be highly relevant to the global energy economy in 2023. The past twelve months have seen a huge re-prioritisation of energy policy away from environmental issues and towards energy security and...

Qatar's domestic and foreign policy since the 1990s has developed along three main lines: The emirate has expanded its gas production and supplies liquefied gas to as many countries as possible; it assures itself of US military protection by providing bases; and it conducts a "soft power"...

This study explores the benefits of incorporating fat-tailed innovations, asymmetric volatility response, and an extended information set into crude oil return modeling and forecasting. To this end, we utilize standard volatility models such as Generalized Autoregressive Conditional...

Based on firm level data in the French manufacturing sector, we find that firms adapt quickly, strongly and through multiple channels to energy shocks, even though electricity and gas bills represent a very small share of their total costs. Over the period 1996-2019, faced with an idiosyncratic...

In the wake of the gas crisis, in March 2022 the European Council called on the Council and the Commission to examine how 'an aggregator model / single buyer' could help reduce gas prices. The Council also said that Member States and the Commission would 'work together on voluntary common...

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the natural gas trade, inter alia, continues to be felt well beyond Europe's borders. As the accelerated decarbonisation of the world's economies is being pushed forward, Europe's unexpected interest in alternative sources of gas imports to replace Russian...

China is currently the world's largest oil importer and is on track to becoming the biggest consumer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This dependency is viewed as a strategic vulnerability, especially as China's ties with the USA are worsening and Beijing has growing concerns about Washington's...

Das Land Berlin hat sich verpflichtet, bis 2045 Klimaneutralität zu erreichen. Die Wärmeerzeugung ist der größte Treiber der Energienachfrage und verursacht fast die Hälfte der CO2-Emissionen in Berlin. Derzeit beruht die Wärmeversorgung überwiegend auf Erdgas, sowohl in der dezentralen...

This study explores the benefits of incorporating fat-tailed innovations, asymmetric volatility response, and an extended information set into crude oil return modeling and forecasting. To this end, we utilize standard volatility models such as Generalized Autoregressive Conditional...

Mit der Revision des Klimaschutzgesetzes im Jahr 2021 hat sich Deutschland u. a. verbindlich das langfristige Ziel gesetzt, bis zum Jahr 2045 treibhausgasneutral zu werden. Dies bedeutet, dass die Nutzung von fossilen Energieträgern vollständig zu vermeiden ist, insbesondere durch ein...

In the wake of the gas crisis, in March 2022 the European Council called on the Council and the Commission to examine how ‘an aggregator model / single buyer’ could help reduce gas prices. The Council also said that Member States and the Commission would ‘work together on voluntary common...