The document brings together contributions from 40 experts, researchers, and specialists from Austria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Georgia, Greece, Iran, India, Kazakhstan, Republic of Korea, Republic of Moldova, Poland, Romania, Pakistan, Türkiye, Ukraine, Hungary, and...

Nach der Erholung vom Pandemie-Schock, der das Wirtschaftsleben in den Jahren 2020 und 2021 stark beeinträchtigte, kommen die wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten in Deutschland nunmehr seit drei Jahren nicht mehr über das Niveau des Jahres 2019 hinaus. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wird eine...

Die Weltwirtschaft steht im Frühjahr 2025 im Zeichen sich tiefgreifend ändernder geopolitischer und wirtschafts- politischer Rahmenbedingungen. Vor dem Hintergrund des Politikwechsels in den USA sind insbesondere in Europa, aber nicht nur dort, neue sicherheitspolitische Herausforderungen...

The security situation in Europe and Germany has fundamentally changed, particularly due to Russia's war of aggression and the declining reliability of transatlantic security guarantees. At the same time, the global race for technological supremacy is intensifying. Germany must now initiate a...

In just a few short months, the new government administration in the United States has thrown the world order into disarray. A potential global trade war, new global value chain configurations and shifting security alliances are reshaping geopolitics. Given the current uncertainty, access to...

In this study, we investigate the impact of geopolitical risks on financial fragility of firms across 40 countries in the period from 1990 to 2022. The Altman Z-Score is used as an indicator of financial fragility, while the Geopolitical Risk Index is employed as a measure of geopolitical risk....

This study analyses the impact of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) on the volatility of commodity futures returns from 4 January 2010 to 30 June 2023, using Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models. It expands the research scope to include precious...

In summer 2023, the EU entered a strategic raw materials partnership with Chile. While the EU is seeking to gain better access to critical raw materials such as lithium and copper, Chile is aiming to diversify its raw materials sector and boost local value creation. Despite progress having been...

Industrial policy has become a core item in the policy agenda of many governments as well as of the EU which has come up with many policy initiatives over the past two decades. This paper emphasises the important shifts taking place in the global economy with the rise of China but also of other...

This article investigates the relationship between Inter-Korean geopolitical risk (IKGPR) and South Korean firms' risk-taking in the context of highly political tensions in the Korean peninsula. Using a recently developed news-based index of geopolitical risk, our empirical analysis shows an...

• By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia's financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. • We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. • A one-euro...

European climate policy was traditionally pursued in the expectation of global policy convergence, ensuring equal opportunities for domestic and foreign firms in achieving climate neutrality. However, increasing geopolitical fragmentation has disrupted this expectation. Across the globe,...

In just a few short months, the new government administration in the United States has thrown the world order into disarray. A potential global trade war, new global value chain configurations and shifting security alliances are reshaping geopolitics. Given the current uncertainty, access to...

The capital markets are sensitive to geopolitical events. It is important to provide evidence of reactions to specific geopolitical events in order to identify general patterns and effective risk management strategies. This study follows the event study approach to assess the reactions of...

The paper aims to analyze the effect of geopolitical uncertainties on growth in the countries of selected Turkic republics and neighboring states which are experiencing geopolitical uncertainty, especially regarding their position in the global economy. This study investigates how uncertainties...

We extend a quantitative general equilibrium model of global trade networks to evaluate the economic impacts of various trade disruptions. Our analysis considers scenarios such as US-China trade wars, a broader Cold War 2.0 decoupling, Trump-era tariffs, and disruptions in the trade of critical...

This paper investigates a key objective of BRICS: the establishment of an alternative international currency as part of a broader de-dollarization strategy. This effort has gained urgency, primarily due to Russia's need to bypass Western sanctions and China's advancement of the Belt and Road...

This study examines the integrated impacts of cyberattacks, geopolitical, and financial market volatility on rare earth markets during the 2014-2024 period, using Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression and wavelet analysis. By bridging critical gaps in the literature, this research...

This paper formalizes the geopolitical externality of climate policy and estimates its plausible magnitudes. Specifically, domestic reductions in fossil fuel demand depress global prices, thereby lowering export revenues for resource-rich autocracies - many of which allocate substantial...

Nach der Erholung vom Pandemie-Schock, der das Wirtschaftsleben in den Jahren 2020 und 2021 stark beeinträchtigte, kommen die wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten in Deutschland nunmehr seit drei Jahren nicht mehr über das Niveau des Jahres 2019 hinaus. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wird eine...

A study conducted by the European Parliamentary Research Service (2023) notes that the European Union's (EU) relations with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries are being affected by changes in global power, economic uncertainty, and security threats. The current working paper...

Greater Asia is emerging as a major factor in the global energy transition. This shift is associated with growing independence from external actors such as the European Union and the United States, with unfolding developments increasingly concentrated within the region itself. Key trends include...

Central Asian economies, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are pursuing increasingly ambitious goals for renewable energy. Apart from China - an established player in the market - it has increasingly been Gulf countries that have been implementing respective projects, particularly Saudi...

Apart from several infrastructure projects which ultimately failed, and a surprise visit by the icebreaker Xuelong off the Greenlandic capital, Nuuk, the People's Repub­lic of China has long maintained a cautious and reserved presence in the Arctic in the shadow of Russia and its fleet of...

The space sector has remained central to geopolitics since the end of the Cold War, leading to an increase in national space spending worldwide. This study investigates how public support for space funding is influenced by information about (i) national space spending, (ii) the spending of...

In recent years, major exporting economies experienced rising geopolitical risk. From the perspective of the US and the euro area, we employ detailed product data panels to study the consequences of trading-partner geopolitical risk shocks on bilateral imports. We find that these shocks lower...

This report investigates the fragmentation of foreign direct investment (FDI) in India and ASEAN in the context of evolving geopolitical dynamics and global economic shifts. By delineating four distinct phases of globalization, the analysis reveals how systemic shocks and geopolitical tensions...