Nach der Erholung vom Pandemie-Schock, der das Wirtschaftsleben in den Jahren 2020 und 2021 stark beeinträchtigte, kommen die wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten in Deutschland nunmehr seit drei Jahren nicht mehr über das Niveau des Jahres 2019 hinaus. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wird eine...

The security situation in Europe and Germany has fundamentally changed, particularly due to Russia's war of aggression and the declining reliability of transatlantic security guarantees. At the same time, the global race for technological supremacy is intensifying. Germany must now initiate a...

In just a few short months, the new government administration in the United States has thrown the world order into disarray. A potential global trade war, new global value chain configurations and shifting security alliances are reshaping geopolitics. Given the current uncertainty, access to...

We extend a quantitative general equilibrium model of global trade networks to evaluate the economic impacts of various trade disruptions. Our analysis considers scenarios such as US-China trade wars, a broader Cold War 2.0 decoupling, Trump-era tariffs, and disruptions in the trade of critical...

This paper investigates a key objective of BRICS: the establishment of an alternative international currency as part of a broader de-dollarization strategy. This effort has gained urgency, primarily due to Russia's need to bypass Western sanctions and China's advancement of the Belt and Road...

This study examines the integrated impacts of cyberattacks, geopolitical, and financial market volatility on rare earth markets during the 2014-2024 period, using Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression and wavelet analysis. By bridging critical gaps in the literature, this research...

This paper formalizes the geopolitical externality of climate policy and estimates its plausible magnitudes. Specifically, domestic reductions in fossil fuel demand depress global prices, thereby lowering export revenues for resource-rich autocracies - many of which allocate substantial...

• By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia's financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. • We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. • A one-euro...

European climate policy was traditionally pursued in the expectation of global policy convergence, ensuring equal opportunities for domestic and foreign firms in achieving climate neutrality. However, increasing geopolitical fragmentation has disrupted this expectation. Across the globe,...

In just a few short months, the new government administration in the United States has thrown the world order into disarray. A potential global trade war, new global value chain configurations and shifting security alliances are reshaping geopolitics. Given the current uncertainty, access to...

How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization,” built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any...

As seldom before, the current war in Ukraine has seen the use of World War II analogies by belligerents and also some Western non-belligerents. They thereby follow in the footsteps of such political leaders as Anthony Eden, Margaret Thatcher, Joseph Stalin, or John F. Kennedy. Indeed, statesmen...

I study the impact of domestic and foreign geopolitical risk (GPR) on economic expectations, and how trade linkages affect the transmission of foreign risks. Using monthly professional forecasts since 1995, I start by estimating the effect of GPR events on the distribution of expectations across...

This paper examines the relationship between geopolitical fragmentation and friendshoring of foreign investments over time, countries, and sectors. The analysis uses comprehensive data on foreign direct investments covering greenfield projects, mergers and acquisitions, and stocks of affiliates,...

We use nearly a decade's worth of panel data from European Union Chamber of Commerce in China business confidence surveys to analyse the deteriorating outlooks of EU firms in China from 2017 to 2025. All firms in China currently face challenges including slow profit growth and deflation. These...

Southeast Asia is becoming more multipolar, with countries reevaluating their alliances and embracing non-alignment. Europe, however, risks being sidelined due to fragmented engagement and an erratic regional presence. Europe's influence is undermined by a lack of strategic cohesion and...

Southeast Asia is becoming more multipolar, with countries reevaluating their alliances and embracing non-alignment. Europe, however, risks being sidelined due to fragmented engagement and an erratic regional presence. Europe's influence is undermined by a lack of strategic cohesion and...

This paper compares the inter-war 1930s with the post-2014 international system to identify structural continuities that threaten contemporary stability. A tri-layer literature review integrates archival records, modern governmental datasets and global opinion surveys, normalising disparate...

The Belt and Road initiative (BRI), introduced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, is an economic and geopolitical mega-project that has become a centrepiece of China's foreign and economic policy. The original goal was to better connect the Asian economies with Europe. However, over time...

This Policy Brief explores the potential impact of forming a customs union between the European Union (EU) and key global partners (e.g. Canada, the UK, Mexico and Japan) as a strategic response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs. Using the GSIM partial equilibrium model, the...

"The global economy's interconnectedness and the potential for supply chain disruptions were highlighted recently during Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, a possible future conflict between China and Taiwan could lead to substantial disruptions in...

This paper analyses the geopolitical implications of the Agreement between the European Union and the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), focusing on its potential for enhanced interregional cooperation. It explores how this agreement aligns with each region's strategic interests, expanding on...

This paper analyses the geopolitical implications of the Agreement between the European Union and the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), focusing on its potential for enhanced interregional cooperation. It explores how this agreement aligns with each region's strategic interests, expanding on...

Using time-varying Granger causality, Neural Networks Nonlinear VAR, and Wavelet Coherence analysis, we evidence the unstable effect of the money market rate on industrial production and consumer price index in Tunisia. The effect is asymmetric and depends on geopolitical risk (low versus high)....

This paper explores how global economic and financial imbalances have evolved amid rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions. While globalisation and technological change have had a positive impact on global growth and poverty reduction, they have also led to increased inequality,...

For the first time, this study investigates the impact of uncertainty (Monetary Policy), risks (Climate and Geopolitical), research and development, and Innovation on economic growth. Using a dataset covering a global perspective from 1985 to 2022, this study employs dynamic time series data...

We introduce a method that exploits some non-Gaussian features of structural shocks to identify structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. More specifically, we propose combining inequality restrictions on the higher-order moments of the structural shocks of interest with other...

This paper examines the intersection between entrepreneurship government policy and managerial theory. The context chosen for this study is India. India has experienced a significant global geopolitical shift that is coinciding with India's domestic policy reforms and notable domestic...

This study analyses the impact of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) on the volatility of commodity futures returns from 4 January 2010 to 30 June 2023, using Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models. It expands the research scope to include precious...

In summer 2023, the EU entered a strategic raw materials partnership with Chile. While the EU is seeking to gain better access to critical raw materials such as lithium and copper, Chile is aiming to diversify its raw materials sector and boost local value creation. Despite progress having been...

Industrial policy has become a core item in the policy agenda of many governments as well as of the EU which has come up with many policy initiatives over the past two decades. This paper emphasises the important shifts taking place in the global economy with the rise of China but also of other...