In this paper, we conduct a large-scale field experiment to investigate the manipulability of prediction markets. The main experiment involves randomly shocking prices across 817 separate markets; we then collect hourly price data to examine whether the effects of these shocks persist over time....

I study how access to foreign-born workers impacts firms and local economics in times of acute crisis. The 2020 H-2B visa lottery randomly gave some U.S. firms the chance to hire low-wage, migrant workers during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using administrative data across three...

Information is incorporated into stock prices when investors trade; consequently, prices respond only to the information investors pay attention to. Because market efficiency requires rapid information dissemination and fully informative prices, attention necessarily affects the level of market...

While sports betting markets share similarities with traditional financial markets, they are more accessible for empirical research thanks to availability of high-quality data, straightforward betting procedures, and the finite duration of events. As a result, they are often analyzed for market...

Markets are information aggregators. But how do they incorporate new data into their pricing? We examine the response of prediction markets to a novel information shock in a quasi-natural experiment: How did the absence announcements of elite soccer players influence the betting odds of affected...

In this paper, we investigate whether better schools can compensate for the effects of children’s genetic differences. To this end, we combine data from the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) with Norwegian register data to estimate the interaction between genetic...

We investigate whether better schools can compensate for the effects of children's genetic differences. To this end, we combine data from the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) with Norwegian register data to estimate the interaction between genetic endowments and school...

This study investigates the interplay between parental circumstances, talent, and luck in shaping long-term socioeconomic success through an agent-based simulation model. Building on prior research on the influence of socioeconomic status (SES) and parental circumstances on educational outcomes,...

We conduct a laboratory experiment to compare the fairness and intensity of round-robin tournaments with three symmetric players, a single prize, and two alternative match formats. Matches are either organized as lottery contests or all-pay auctions. Whereas we confirm the theoretical prediction...

We conduct a laboratory experiment to compare the fairness and intensity of round-robin tournaments with three symmetric players, a single prize, and two alternative match formats. Matches are either organized as lottery contests or all-pay auctions. Whereas we confirm the theoretical prediction...

The gambler's ruin is usually presented as a repeated game where the gambler can either win or lose one unit. We examine cases where the profits from winning gambles are multiple times the stake at risk, with the expected profit per gamble being either zero, positive or negative. For positive...

Since 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only licensed prediction market in the United States. We show that Kalshi's contract prices are relatively accurate predictors of outcomes and their accuracy increases as markets come closer to closing. However, the prices also display a systematic...

We analyze a market-wide panel dataset on retail options trading from India, a market with an 80% share in option contracts traded worldwide. Retail traders both concentrated in and dominate index options trading. They exhibit short-term speculative behavior with significant day trading, short-...

We study how inheritance affects labor supply over the life cycle, and we quantify its aggregate impact. Tracking earnings histories around some 135,000 inheritances and 5,000 lottery wins, we exploit the quasi-random timing and size of these events to identify labor supply responses with high...

There are many evidences which prove that cartels’ price leads to an economic inefficiency, due to the reduced consumers welfare. Antitrust authorities have set up different ways to defeat and prevent collusive agreements, but as widely showed by the literature, deterring collusion may have...

Betting exchanges match people to take opposite sides of a bet. We present a model of a betting exchange in which participants disagree about outcome probabilities but are, on average, correct. Traders maximize subjective expected profits and equilibrium emerges from a simple matching process....

Motivated by current events, this paper assesses the impact of tariff increases on bilateral greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) over the period 2016-2023. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of announced greenfield investment projects, official FDI statistics, and bilateral product-level...