The decline in international trade following the financial crisis suggests a shift in globalisation and a transformation of the international economic order. Protectionist trade policies have gained prominence as certain major economies increasingly implement tariffs to safeguard domestic...

We employ Synthetic Control Method techniques to estimate the causal effect of Brexit on the consumer price index (CPI) in the United Kingdom. We construct a counterfactual CPI index from a weighted pool of comparable economies and find that the price level of the United Kingdom rose...

This paper examines the impact of safeguard import tariffs on market diversity in Ecuador from 2015 to 2017. Using firm-level data, we estimate the effects of tariffs on revenue and market shares in the Manufacturing and Wholesale & Retail (W&R) sectors with a Quantile Treatment Effect on the...

This study examines two key challenges in services trade research: the reliability of trade data and the measurement of non-tariff barriers, particularly the Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI). Using firm-level panel data from Türkiye with fixed effects, we show that international data...

Geoeconomic pressure - the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic ends - has become a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically extract signals of...

The decline in international trade following the financial crisis suggests a shift in globalisation and a transformation of the international economic order. Protectionist trade policies have gained prominence as certain major economies increasingly implement tariffs to safeguard domestic...

Global events and geopolitical upheavals, from the COVID-19 pandemic to the US-China trade conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, have propelled the world towards geoeconomic fragmentation. This trend is exemplified by shifts away from free trade and globally integrated supply chains in favour of...

I conduct a comprehensive analysis of China's international and domestic border effects. My results confirm the negative impact of administrative borders on exports. In my analysis, I account for multilateral resistance terms, which were omitted in previous relevant studies. My findings show...

This paper empirically examines how standards and technical regulations affect export margins in three African countries at the firm level. The approach involves combining detailed customs transaction data at the firm-product level with bilateral information on non-tariff measures within a...

This article examines the underlying motives behind the United States' trade and technological conflict with China since 2018. While the measures undertaken-ranging from tariffs and export controls to investment screening and industrial policy-are often interpreted through the lens of economic...

The Brussels Effect, once emblematic of the EU's alleged influence in shaping global regulations, has now become a factor contributing to global regulatory fragmentation. The EU must recalibrate its trajectory towards a liberal and rules-based trading order, prioritizing widespread regulatory...

We study the situation when a commodity-exporting economy is under sanctions and cannot use its accumulated fx-reserves or attract new fx-debt to smooth import restrictions amid slower decline of income flow from a commodity-export. Our study attempts to determine the adequate response of the...

Under the European Union's pre-arrival safety and security programme, all Economic Operators have to submit detailed safety and security information about the transported goods in the Import Control System 2 (ICS2) through a complete Entry Summary Declaration (ENS). The ENS can be submitted in...

As WTO regulations limited tariffs, non-tariff barriers, such as import licenses (NAILs), became essential trade policy tools. This paper examines how NAILs impact downstream firms in Argentina. Using a novel dataset and the staggered introduction of NAILs between 2005-2011 for identification,...

Under the pressure of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries responded with various trade measures to prevent shortages of essential goods and ensure product quality and safety. COVID-19 trade measures were used to facilitate or restrict trade performance across countries, then increase or...

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) are increasingly dealing with challenges shaped by the new geopolitical and trade environments. Besides traditional tariffs, exporting firms need to comply with regulatory non-tariff measures (NTMs) in the form of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) and sanitary...

Amid the current U.S.-China technological race, the U.S. has imposed export controls to deny China access to strategic technologies. We document that these measures prompted a broad-based decoupling of U.S. and Chinese supply chains. Once their Chinese customers are subject to export controls,...

South Africa-Africa trade was examined for 2001-2021 and results show that Africa is an important market for South Africa's manufactured products and there is ease of market access for these products; its trade with Africa is highly complementary; and it has strong trade linkages with Africa's...

The escalation of broad export controls by the US, under the guise of national security and the aim to curb technological transfers to potential adversaries,1 marks a new epoch of bureaucratic oversight. The US push for broad export controls also underscores a critical juncture in US-EU...

This report focuses on Russia's adaptation in its commodity exports during 2023, amidst ongoing international sanctions. It examines the shifts in export and maritime shipping patterns, emphasizing coal, crude oil, and liquefied natural gas, and their redirection towards alternative,...

Firms increasingly must contend with trade regulations to access foreign markets. This paper quantifies the relative importance of trade regulations and their heterogeneous effects for Colombian firms exporting to Latin America between 2007 and 2017, focusing on specific types and channels....

This study empirically investigates the impact of recent US export controls on China on South Korea's semiconductor exports. We analyze South Korean export data to shed light on the repercussions of US export restrictions on a third country. Our findings reveal a significant decline in Korean...

Digital technology has penetrated various fields, including international trade. This study aims to analyze how barriers/openness to trade in digital services affected exports before the COVID-19 pandemic (2015-2016) and during the pandemic (2019-2020). Based on the Gravity model, exports seem...