We argue that measurement error in historical price data has led researchers to erroneously believe that there was little persistence of inflation during the 19th century. Using a statistical technique that accounts for these errors, we estimate the persistence of (a) US inflation and (b)...

Textbook theory predicts that t-ratios decline towards zero in regressions when there is increasing collinearity between two independent variables. This article shows that this rarely happens if the two variables are endogenous, and coefficients increase greatly with more collinearity. The...

A unified theory of estimation and inference is developed for an autoregressive process with root in (-∞, ∞) that includes the stationary, local-to-unity, explosive and all intermediate regions. The discontinuity of the limit distribution of the t-statistic outside the stationary region and...

Accurate macroeconomic forecasts are essential for effective policy decisions, yet their precision depends on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. This paper examines the extent to which assumption errors affect forecast accuracy, introducing the average squared assumption error (ASAE) as...

Recent technological advances and policy initiatives present Africa with enormous growth potential from participating in global value chains (GVCs). However, the widening income inequality is raising questions as to whether participation in GVCs plays any role in this observed phenomenon....

This study examines the relationship between the number of children and dementia risk among parents, addressing longstanding questions about how parenthood shapes cognitive health in later life. Using comprehensive administrative data on all parents born in Sweden between 1920 and 1950, along...

Multidimensional heterogeneity and endogeneity are important features of a wide class of econometric models. With control variables to correct for endogeneity, nonparametric identification of treatment effects requires strong support conditions. To alleviate this requirement, we consider varying...

Many nations have experienced both rising education levels and declining marriage rates. However, cross-sectional comparisons within countries often indicate that more highly educated individuals are more likely to be married. Economic theory suggests ambiguous causal effects of education on...

We develop a practical way of addressing the Errors-In-Variables (EIV) problem in the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework. We focus on the settings in which the variability of the EIV is a fraction of that of the mismeasured variables, which is typical for empirical applications. For...

When evaluating partial effects, it is important to distinguish between structural endogeneity and measurement errors. In contrast to linear models, these two sources of endogeneity affect partial effects differently in nonlinear models. We study this issue focusing on the Instrumental Variable...

This paper examines the effect of macroprudential policies on private domestic investment using a panel of 87 developing countries from 2000 to 2017. Our instrumental variables strategy exploits the geographic diffusion of macroprudential policies across countries, with the idea that reforms in...

This paper studies the limiting behavior of the test for instrument exogeneity in linear models when there is uncertainty about the strength of the identification signal. We consider the test for conditional moment restrictions with an expanding set of constructed instruments. We establish the...

We estimate the causal effect of schooling on log earnings using instrumental variables (IV), addressing the endogeneity of schooling by using father's education as an instrument. The IV estimate implies a return of approximately 7.7 percent per additional year of schooling. First-stage and...

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in Mexico between 2005 and 2020 using city level data. We overcome the endogeneity of unemployment and core inflation through a panel instrumental variable strategy. Time-period fixed effects account for aggregate supply, demand, and expectation...

We study the estimation of causal treatment effects on demand when treatment is randomly assigned but prices adjust in response to treatment. We show that regressions of demand on treatment or on treatment and price lead to biased estimates of the direct treatment effect. The bias in both cases...

How should researchers adjust for covariates? We show that if the propensity score is estimated using a specific covariate balancing approach, inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW), and inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA)...

How should researchers adjust for covariates? We show that if the propensity score is estimated using a specific covariate balancing approach, inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW), and inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA)...

A recent econometric literature shows two distinct paths for identification with shift-share instruments, leveraging either many exogenous shifts or exogenous shares. We present the core logic of both paths and practical takeaways via simple checklists. A variety of empirical settings illustrate...

Background Earlier studies have estimated the impact of increased body mass index (BMI) on healthcare costs. Various methods have been used to avoid potential biases and inconsistencies. Each of these methods measure different local effects and have different strengths and weaknesses. Methods In...