The pace of globalization has slowed since the global financial crisis, raising concerns about widespread deglobalization and market fragmentation. We examine the effects of a deglobalization shock on bank lending, firm internal capital markets, and the real economy. Leveraging a unique dataset...

This paper provides novel microlevel evidence that cross-border bank flows are an important means for households to access credit, not only in emerging markets but also in advanced economies. Using supervisory bank-level data alongside household credit and consumption data from Germany, we study...

The World Bank Group considers itself a "Knowledge Bank." The Bank's knowledge work contributes to development outcomes both by informing clients in various policy and reform areas, and by informing staff and clients on the selection, design, and implementation of lending operations. This...

The pace of globalization has slowed since the global financial crisis, raising concerns about widespread deglobalization and market fragmentation. We examine the effects of a deglobalization shock on bank lending, firm internal capital markets, and the real economy. Leveraging a unique dataset...

Twenty years after the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief initiative, debt levels in low-income countries are rising again, renewing sustainability concerns. The prevailing view suggests that China and other emerging lenders exploited the HIPC initiative to expand lending. Using...

This paper provides novel micro-level evidence that cross-border bank flows are important for households' access to credit not only in emerging markets but also in advanced economies. These foreign bank flows can drive local credit credit booms that increase bank risk. We study how the influx of...

This paper challenges the prevailing view in the sovereign debt literature by arguing that sovereign debt markets, in many respects, behave similarly to other credit markets. These markets are hierarchical rather than flat, inherently hybrid in nature, blending elements of public order and...

Using a database of emerging market fundamentals and bond index spreads across 56 frontier and emerging market countries rated below investment grade during the period 2002-22, we assess whether IMF arrangements can restore access to international capital markets (ICM) for countries in distress...

In 2021, the G20 committed to reallocate USD 100 billion of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) recent allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to low-income and vulnerable middle-income countries. However, most of these donations have been made to the IMF's Poverty Reduction and Growth...

The International Debt Report (IDR) is a longstanding annual publication of the World Bank featuring external debt statistics and analysis for the 122 countries that report to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System. IDR 2023 is the 50th annual edition and includes (1) analyses of external debt...

This paper studies whether IMF programs and their size affect borrowing costs by comparing the coupon of bonds issued around an IMF arrangement. By comparing bonds issued immediately before the inset of the program with bonds issued immediately after the program, we show that, on average, the...

Many developing countries are still grappling with the consequences of the pandemic and the associated high debt burdens while facing huge financing needs, inter alia related to climate change. In response, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued $650 billion in Special Drawing Rights...

We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the...

This paper explores the catalytic impact of IMF lending to Low-Income Countries on Official Development Assistance (ODA) during 1990-2019. It disentangles the effect on the amounts of ODA on countries’ participation in IMF programs (“extensive margin”) and the size of the IMF-supported...

According to the IMF, the current public debt makes up nearly 40 percent of the global debt, marking the highest share since the mid-1960s. Despite the vast research on alarming levels of sovereign default, the literature remains inconclusive. This paper investigates macroeconomic, financial,...

Purpose: Existing research on uncertainty and bank lending has focused entirely on aggregate uncertainty (i.e., economic policy uncertainty) and its subcomponents, but not considering other uncertainty measures from the specif-ic perspective of financial markets, especially the banking sector....

The Common Framework for Sovereign Debt Restructuring provides a process for easing debt burdens on low-income countries but has operated too slowly for the four countries that have so far sought relief under it. Official bilateral creditors that are not members of the Paris Club are often...

The book explores the Fund's engagement in Europe in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, and especially after 2010. It explains how, why, and with what consequences the International Monetary Fund-along with the European Central Bank and the European Commission (together known as...

We study the effects of negative interest rate policies (NIRP) on the transmission of monetary policy through cross-border lending. Using bank-level data from international financial centres - the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and Ireland - we examine how NIRP in the economies where banks have their...

Global liquidity refers to the volumes of financial flows—largely intermediated through global banks and non-bank financial institutions—that can move at relatively high frequencies across borders. The amplitude of responses to global conditions like risk sentiment, discussed in the context...

This paper investigates the dynamic aggregate response of firm investments to the approval of an IMF arrangement. Using a local projection methodology, we find that distinguishing between General Resource Account (GRA) and Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) financing matters for the path...

Our paper attempts to propose a novel transmission mechanism of international financial cycles through cross-border capital flows. We first document that a systemic banking crisis in one country is generally associated with a surge in financial capital inflows. Then, we develop a tractable model...

This paper provides an overview of the ongoing debate on the international Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism (SDRM) architecture by highlighting two key aspects, the contractual and the statutory approach, while also alluding to alternatives that have been set forth, such as arbitration,...

Over the past 20 years, China has granted a conspicuous amount of loans to African countries. New loan data show that compared to Western multilateral loans, Chinese loans have relatively high interest rates and shorter maturities, tend to be highly collateralized, and are volatile over time....

This study presents an empirical analysis of individual expressions of confidence in the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) using the World Values Survey-Wave 7 data. The main hypothesis tested is that confidence in each institution is positively associated with alignment...

The loans of the IMF, World Bank, and other multilateral development banks (MDBs) are excluded from debt restructuring. This is the result of their preferred creditor status. There are two justifications for the preferred creditor status of MDBs: (a) they give concessional loans, and (b) they...

The 1944 "Bretton Woods Agreement" gave birth to the new international financial system marked by the centrality of the US dollar which is a crucial pillar of the global power of the United States. Over the past eight decades, the asymmetry of the shrinking US economic weight in the world...

This paper studies how the presence of foreign investors in local currency sovereign debt markets contributes to the transmission of global financial conditions to emerging market economies. My estimations indicate that the higher the share of local currency government bonds held by foreign...

This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China’s overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into China’s growing role in the global financial...

This study investigates the causal effects of the banking sector cleanup on lending conditions. To overcome the banking crisis consequences of 2014-2016, the National Bank of Ukraine changed its regulation approach to strict intolerance towards financially weak and opaque banks and launched the...