Die WIFO-Studie "Inflation und Außenwirtschaft" untersucht den komplexen Zusammenhang zwischen Inflation und Außenwirtschaft, insbesondere im Kontext der jüngsten Inflationswelle. Die zentralen Erkenntnisse zeigen, dass der theoretische Zusammenhang zwischen Inflation und Außenwirtschaft...

During his reign from 1979 to 2005, Pope John Paul II visited 129 countries, more than the 263 Popes before him combined. I document a significant increase in exports to trading partners with a relatively high share of Catholics following a Pastoral visit, leading to a non-negligible increase in...

Foreword -- Preface -- Executive Summary -- Session 1: Energy, Climate, Growth -- Chair: Jayant Sinha -- Speakers: Jessica Seddon, Robert Stavins, Arunabha Ghosh -- Session 2: Technology, Policy, Jobs -- Chair: Sachin Chaturvedi -- Speakers: Paul Samson, Albert van Jaarsveld, Debjani Ghosh --...

How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization,” built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any...

Despite a strong start to 2025, the German economy will experience middling growth for the time being before beginning a long-awaited upturn at the end of the year. DIW Berlin's forecast indicates growth of 0.3 percent for 2025 and of 1.7 percent for 2026; thus, DIW Berlin is increasing its forecast...

Using a new database on global multinational production (MP), I document that world multinational enterprise (MNE) sales declined as sharply as trade during the Great Recession. This collapse was driven by MNEs from a few key headquarters countries, associated with steeper GDP declines in...

On average, wages of female workers are lower than wages of male workers. In this paper, we explore to what extent a gender bias in trade costs explains this gender wage gap and how different policy reforms could lower it. First, we analyse the relation between various types of trade costs and...

The outlook for the global economy continues to be weighed down by high uncertainty surrounding economic policy in the United States in general and aggressive tariff measures in particular. Although the threat of tariffs actually boosted economic activity at the beginning of the year, as...

I study the impact of domestic and foreign geopolitical risk (GPR) on economic expectations, and how trade linkages affect the transmission of foreign risks. Using monthly professional forecasts since 1995, I start by estimating the effect of GPR events on the distribution of expectations across...

We propose new ways to measure populism, using the Manifesto Project Database (1960- 2019) as main source of data. We characterize the evolution of populism over 60 years and show empirically that it is significantly impacted by the skill-content of globalization. Specifically, imports of goods...

Many countries worldwide share borders that offer several benefits, such as easier access, faster knowledge transfer, and more efficient trade diplomacy. However, reliance on land-border trade alone has not been consistently shown to increase GDP per capita or vice versa. This study investigates...

The escalating threat of climate change has placed carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at the forefront of global environmental policy. The relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and information technology (IT) is crucial in shaping international climate change strategies. This study...

Trade's impact on emissions is not straightforward. Existing literature on trade and emissions primarily focuses on countries' net export emissions, often neglecting the emissions saved by importing products instead of producing them domestically. The environmental impact from trade is...

This paper explores how global economic and financial imbalances have evolved amid rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions. While globalisation and technological change have had a positive impact on global growth and poverty reduction, they have also led to increased inequality,...

Integration into global markets serves as a powerful catalyst for economic growth in developing economies, offering the potential to create high paying jobs and foster development. This paper uses the structural gravity model to quantify potential merchandise exports for Asian economies,...

This paper aims to estimate the value added and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embodied in trade between Brazil and the original BRICS countries - China, India, Russia, and South Africa - for the year 2022. Based on data from Exiobase, the emissions indicator reveals that China is the main...

The global economy is already experiencing a period of moderate economic momentum. Now, it is also exposed to additional challenges, in particular a substantial increase in economic policy uncertainty. This is mainly due to the actions and announcements of the new U.S. administration. On the one...

The global trade landscape is being reshaped by geoeconomic fragmentation and the rise of industrial policies. This paper studies the impact of these trends on the export-oriented Korean economy. It documents both positive and negative effects of U.S.-China trade tensions, technology and supply...

Technological advancements in the financial sector are widely recognized as transformative for global trade and supply chains, significantly improving access to financial services while enhancing the security, efficiency, transparency, and flexibility of transactions between exporters and...

The failure of newly independent Central Asian countries to diversify exports after the Soviet Union's collapse is attributed to high trade costs, either because these countries are landlocked or due to border delays and regulatory obstacles. This paper estimates the impact of the high costs of...

We develop and test a theory of efficient international trade. Efficiency gains arise through lower trade costs faced by 'trade specialists', whose superiority over 'common traders' manifests itself through lower trade costs. To test our theory, we construct and deploy a novel dataset based on...

So-called "connector" countries have been argued to benefit from the US-China trade tensions, given their rising share in US imports. This paper draws an important distinction between trade reallocation-countries increase domestic production to substitute for declining Chinese exports to the...

The global production of fishmeal and fish oil remains relatively stable with an average of 5,1 million tonnes of fishmeal and around 1,2 million tonnes of fish oil the past 10 years. Out of this, the EU produces from 370.000 tonnes to above 520.000 tonnes of fishmeal and from 90.000 tonnes to...

We explore the impact of export quality on the levels of exports and domestic trade. First, we developed a theoretical framework, using the two-country oligopolistic model with quality differentials in product. We find that a consumer-preference driven increase in export quality improves export...

This paper examines carbon leakage through supply chain recalibration in response to European carbon policies. Using input-output data and a high-frequency identification approach for carbon policy shocks, this paper investigates whether stringent carbon regulations in Europe affect the imports...