This study endeavors to explore the shock-transmission mechanism between Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) and the volatility inherent in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Islamic stock markets by employing the novel Quantile Vector Auto Regression (QVAR) with "Extended Joint" and "Frequency"...

US President Donald Trump proposed implementing "reciprocal tariffs", under which the US would raise import tariffs to match those imposed by its trading partners, further undermining the multilateral rules-based system. This policy brief examines the status quo of tariff differentials between...

Foreword -- Preface -- Executive Summary -- Session 1: Energy, Climate, Growth -- Chair: Jayant Sinha -- Speakers: Jessica Seddon, Robert Stavins, Arunabha Ghosh -- Session 2: Technology, Policy, Jobs -- Chair: Sachin Chaturvedi -- Speakers: Paul Samson, Albert van Jaarsveld, Debjani Ghosh --...

How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization,” built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any...

On average, wages of female workers are lower than wages of male workers. In this paper, we explore to what extent a gender bias in trade costs explains this gender wage gap and how different policy reforms could lower it. First, we analyse the relation between various types of trade costs and...

The outlook for the global economy continues to be weighed down by high uncertainty surrounding economic policy in the United States in general and aggressive tariff measures in particular. Although the threat of tariffs actually boosted economic activity at the beginning of the year, as...

Can the flow of goods, services, and ideas build bridges where conflict once prevailed? If so, under whatcircumstances? The World Trade Organization (WTO) stands for a predictable, rules-based system based on the principle of non-discrimination. When the predecessor to the WTO – the General...

In the context of the push by the European Union for regional integration in the Western Balkans, this paper explores the barriers to, and prospects for, deeper intra-Western Balkan economic relationships. First, it addresses the pronounced bilateral economic relationships between Western Balkan...

We use nearly a decade's worth of panel data from European Union Chamber of Commerce in China business confidence surveys to analyse the deteriorating outlooks of EU firms in China from 2017 to 2025. All firms in China currently face challenges including slow profit growth and deflation. These...

The pledge to develop a new foreign economic policy sits at the heart of the European Commission's Political Guidelines published in July 2024. This ambition has become even more pressing in light of US President Donald Trump's 'America First' trade policy, signalling a disruptive shift in...

In 2011, the American Economic Association (AEA) changed its peer review policy for all their journals, shifting from a double-blind process to a single-blind peer-review process. Under this new system, referees became aware of the authors' identities. In this paper, I explore whether this...

The Belt and Road initiative (BRI), introduced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, is an economic and geopolitical mega-project that has become a centrepiece of China's foreign and economic policy. The original goal was to better connect the Asian economies with Europe. However, over time...

China-India relations, which have long been fraught, were further complicated by the 2020 military standoff on the Himalayan border. The political disruption had a significant impact on Chinese companies' presence in India. And yet, India's dependence on Chinese imports has increased since. The...

Starting from the Tinbergen principle and four areas of economic policy, we argue that in practice economic policies each have multiple effects, rendering a clear and simple allocation of objectives and instruments to different policies and their responsible institutions complex. First, the case...

Die Studie analysiert die potenziellen wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen verschiedener handelspolitischer Szenarien zwischen der Schweiz und den USA. Die USA sind nach der Europäischen Union der wichtigste Handelspartner der Schweiz, der auch mittelfristig hohe Wachstumsaussichten bietet. Mithilfe...

IMF-ENV is a global dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed by the IMF's Research Department. The model features a database of 160 countries and regions, along with 76 sectors, and can be calibrated to a wide range of country-sector combinations. The model's general...

Industrial policies (IPs) are on the rise. The most common motive for pursuing IPs is to boost strategic competitiveness of the targeted products. Leveraging a novel database of industrial policies and using the local projection difference-in-differences approach, this paper examines the dynamic...

This paper examines the effects of trade policy shocks on the US economy using a novel identification strategy that combines narrative information with stock market data. We construct a new dataset of daily trade policy statements from 2007 to 2019, enabling us to capture a broad range of policy...