This study offers new insights into how different regions in Spain respond to changes in the economic cycle, providing a fresh perspective using quarterly data desegregated by provincial level and gender. We aim to identify which regions are affected the most by the economic fluctuations,...

In employment relationships, a wage is an installment payment on an implicit long-term agreement between a worker and a firm. The price of labor that impacts firm's hiring decisions, instead, reflects the hiring wage as well as the impact of economic conditions at the time of hiring on future...

The literature on fiscal federalism has long debated whether fiscally decentralized countries are inherently more economically and fiscally unstable. This paper contributes to this literature by analyzing the impact of fiscal decentralization on one of the most important dimensions of...

On-the-job search is increasingly recognized as an important potential driver of labor market dynamics over the business cycle. Using the UK Labor Force Survey, we find robust empirical evidence that on-the-job search is countercyclical, and that the cyclical fluctuations have important...

Firms hire workers from different pools. Some firms hire more unemployed workers than others, making their demand for labor more important for unemployment. I differentiate jobs based on their hiring pool and estimate their wage cyclicality. The key finding is that wages in jobs hiring from...

Although the quantitative relationship between employment cyclicality and wage cyclicality is central for the dynamics of macroeconomic models, there is little empirical evidence on this topic. We use the German AWFP dataset to document that wage cyclicalities are very heterogeneous across...

Figueiredo (2022) examines wage cyclicality across the skill mismatch distribution finding large differences. Some key results include finding that wages are acyclical in good labor market matches but procyclical in poor matches. Using the public replication material provided by the authors, we...

This paper examines the importance of sectoral reallocation and cyclical unemployment; in the postwar US economy. It develops a new measure of reallocation shocks based on the variance of industry stock market excess returns over time, termed cross section volatility. Data on unemployment and...

This paper uses several large cross-sectional data sources and a new approach to estimate midlife effects of entering the labor market in a recession on mortality by cause and various measures of socioeconomic status. We find that cohorts coming of age during the deep recession of the early...

We revisit the role of temporary layoffs in the business cycle, motivated by their unprecedented surge during the pandemic recession. We first measure the contribution of temporary layoffs to unemployment dynamics over the period 1979 to the present. While many have emphasized a stabilizing...

Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups—those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group expanded tremendously in April 2020, at the trough of the...

The US economy has endured an exceptionally severe recession caused by the measures put in place to contain the spread of COVID-19. This occasional paper assesses the impact of this crisis on key labour market variables, such as (un-) employment, wages and productivity, and highlights the...

We revisit the role of temporary layoffs in the business cycle, motivated by their unprecedented surge during the pandemic recession. We first measure the contribution of temporary layoffs to unemployment dynamics over the period 1979 to the present. While many have emphasized a stabilizing...

Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was fairly tightly distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment....

Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups - those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group expanded tremendously in April 2020, at the trough of the...

We document substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity of German establishments' real wage cyclicality over the business cycle. While wages of the median establishment are moderately procyclical, 36 percent of establishments have countercyclical wages. We estimate a negative connection between...

In recessions, unemployment increases despite the--perhaps counterintuitive--fact that the number of unemployed workers finding jobs expands. We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations resting on this countercyclicality of gross flows from unemployment into employment. In recessions, the...

Regionalspezifische Wirtschaftsstrukturen haben einen Einfluss auf die Resilienz von Regionen in konjunkturellen Krisenzeiten. Noch unklar ist in diesem Zusammenhang die relative Bedeutung kleinerer Unternehmen. Haben sie hinsichtlich der Arbeitslosigkeitsentwicklung in der Corona-Pandemie als...

We document substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity of German establishments' real wage cyclicality over the business cycle. While wages of the median establishment are moderately procyclical, 36 percent of establishments have countercyclical wages. We estimate a negative connection between...

We modify the standard real business cycle model by assuming that wages are set by a monopoly union at the firm level. In the context of such a model, we introduce a measure of unemployment and analyze its equilibrium behavior. We show that a calibrated version of the model is capable of...

This paper argues that a broad class of search models cannot generate the observed business-cycle-frequency fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies in response to shocks of a plausible magnitude. In the U.S., the vacancy-unemployment ratio is 20 times as volatile as average labor...

Recent work by David Lilien has argued that the existence of a strong positive correlation between the dispersion of employment growth rates across sectors (G) and the unemployment rate implies that shifts in demand from some sectors to others are responsible for a substantial fraction of...

This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study the labor market dynamics of the COVID-19 recession in the US. We calibrate the model using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2001-2019, and we find that the...