Die deutsche Wirtschaft steckt fest. Strukturwandel und Unsicherheit lähmen die Industrie- und Konsumkonjunktur. Das preisbereinigte Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in diesem Jahr voraussichtlich nur leicht um 0,2 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr zulegen. Damit wurde die Wachstumsprognose gegenüber der ifo...

Die Wachstumsaussichten für die Weltwirtschaft bleiben moderat. Das Welt-BIP dürfte in diesem Jahr um 3,0 % und im Jahr 2026 um 2,9 % zunehmen. Belastend wirkt dabei die Wirtschaftspolitik in den USA. Diese dürfte die Wachstumsdynamik sowohl in den USA als auch in anderen großen...

Die Weltwirtschaft ist derzeit von handelspolitischen Schocks und hoher Unsicherheit geprägt. Im Prognosezeitraum wird der Welthandel in Folge der schwächeren Weltkonjunktur und der bestehenden Handelskonflikte nur sehr verhalten expandieren. Er wird in diesem Jahr um 1,9 % und im kommenden...

We experimentally study how economic prospects and power shifts affect the risk of conflict through a dynamic power rivalry game. Players decide whether to maintain the status quo or challenge a rival under declining, constant, or growing economic prospects. We find that conflict rates are...

Despite a strong start to 2025, the German economy will experience middling growth for the time being before beginning a long-awaited upturn at the end of the year. DIW Berlin's forecast indicates growth of 0.3 percent for 2025 and of 1.7 percent for 2026; thus, DIW Berlin is increasing its forecast...

Indonesia's economy remains resilient amid worsening global conditions. GDP grew at 4.9 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q1-2025, slightly lower than previous post-pandemic quarters. Domestic demand was impacted by reduced government consumption and lower investment. Budget efficiency measures led...

The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised upwards for 2025 from the previous survey (conducted in the fourth quarter of 2024) and were largely unchanged thereafter. At the same time, core inflation...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised upwards for 2025 from the previous survey (conducted in the fourth quarter of 2024) and were largely unchanged thereafter. At the same time, core inflation...

Persistently high geopolitical and policy uncertainty is expected to weigh on euro area economic growth, slowing down the anticipated recovery. This follows slightly weaker than expected growth at the end of 2024. Both domestic and trade policy uncertainty are high. Although the baseline...

This study seeks to provide a concise and succinct overview of the structure, key facts and figures, and rules and procedures of the EU budget, and informs about the latest developments in EU finances and budgeting. It aims to serve both as a reference guide for experienced EU budget actors and...

Persistently high geopolitical and policy uncertainty is expected to weigh on euro area economic growth, slowing down the anticipated recovery. This follows slightly weaker than expected growth at the end of 2024. Both domestic and trade policy uncertainty are high. Although the baseline...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2025,1expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 and 2026 but remained unchanged for 2027 and the longer-term. At the same time, core inflation expectations, as measured by the...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 and 2026 but remained unchanged for 2027 and the longer-term. At the same time, core inflation expectations, as measured by the...

This technical report gives an overview of the data sources and methodologies used by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) to compile the dataset on structural indicators of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are used in the annual SME Performance Review. The SME Performance Review is one...

After two years of recession, Austria's economic output is likely to stagnate in 2025. WIFO expects GDP growth of 1.2 percent in 2026. The upturn in the global economy should then give the Austrian economy some momentum again, driven by both exports and domestic demand.

The unpredictable onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant downward revisions of economic forecasts for 2020 worldwide. During the pandemic, the health policy measures announced at short notice hampered the forecast ability. The following recovery was interrupted by Russia's invasion of...

The objective of the paper is to assess and compare the resilience of the post-Covid US and Eurozone economies. Quarterly growth rates (annualized) of the Real GDP of US and the Eurozone are forecasted between Q4 2023 and Q4 2050. Two sets of forecasts are generated: forecasts using historical...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist im ersten Quartal dieses Jahres überraschend deutlich gewachsen, um 0,4 %. Da einige Sondereffekte diese Entwicklung begünstigten, dürfte das zweite Quartal eher schwächer ausfallen. Inzwischen ist eine neue Regierung im Amt. Die Union hatte umfassende...

Developing countries face uncertainties driven by global macroeconomic variables over which they have little to no control. Key exogenous factors faced by most developing countries include interest rates in high-income countries, commodity prices, global demand for exports, and remit- tance...

This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and...

Growth is projected to rise in the Middle East and North Africa in 2025 and 2026, but at a slower pace than anticipated in the October 2024 REO. Across the region, rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty are adding to the impact of conflicts and extended oil production cuts to weaken growth...

A hard-won recovery in sub-Saharan Africa has been overtaken by recent events. The sudden shift in the global outlook has clouded the region's short-term prospects and significantly compli¬cated policy making. After four years of crisis, sub-Saharan Africa's authorities had already faced a...

This paper customizes to the Tongan economy a macroeconomic model for medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables (QPM): output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. The model is calibrated to embody the specific attributes of the Tongan economy such as the persistence of...

Economic expectations play a central role in financial markets, yet investors often disagree about the economy's future. This disagreement has long been viewed as a potential driver of asset prices, but it remains unclear whether it reflects mispricing or a priced source of risk. We address this...