We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

This article analyses aspects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in its international context from a game theory perspective, with particular attention to the possible use of the brinkmanship strategy by US President Donald Trump.

Vladimir Putin underestimated the war against Ukraine on several levels, both in terms of the response within Ukraine and, above all, in terms of the response from the US and Europe. What can we learn from this? What policies should Europe pursue? What signals should it send to Putin to prevent...

The essay examines the commercial and financial activities of Palla Strozzi, a Florentine merchant active in Lyon in the first half of the 16th century. A cousin of the leaders of the Florentine republican movement - the brothers Piero, Roberto and Leone Strozzi, allies of France against duke...

The war in Ukraine triggered a big energy crisis, which particularly escalated in the winter of 2023 throughout all Europe. The crisis was a good opportunity for policymakers to encourage people to save electricity in the household. The aim of this paper is to analyse the changes in electricity...

We provide a selective overview of the literature on the linkages between interstate conflict and international trade, paying special attention to how trade openness (i) affects arming incentives, (ii) the channels through which its effects travel, and (iii) its consequences for the emergence of...

We consider a dynamic setting where two countries with competing claims to a resource/asset first arm and then choose whether to resolve their dispute through war or peacefully through settlement. War precludes international trade and can be destructive, but also locks gains and eliminates...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

We experimentally study how economic prospects and power shifts affect the risk of conflict through a dynamic power rivalry game. Players decide whether to maintain the status quo or challenge a rival under declining, constant, or growing economic prospects. We find that conflict rates are...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

This paper examines the growth of military production in Russia since the onset of the war against Ukraine in February 2022. Utilizing official data from Rosstat, the study explores how military production is classified within Russian industrial output statistics. The analysis reveals...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

The Russia-Ukraine war has challenged our understanding of corporate social responsibility (CSR). Whereas CSR is traditionally associated with business self-regulation that benefits business and society, the conflict has revealed new forms of what we call "partisan CSR." Based on comprehensive...

This study is based on exploratory research to test the ability of artificial intelligence (AI) to shape human behaviour, testing on a recent geopolitical event, the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine. Thus, text, image and video were generated using artificial intelligence, tracking users'...

This article analyses aspects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in its international context from a game theory perspective, with particular attention to the possible use of the brinkmanship strategy by US President Donald Trump.

Vladimir Putin underestimated the war against Ukraine on several levels, both in terms of the response within Ukraine and, above all, in terms of the response from the US and Europe. What can we learn from this? What policies should Europe pursue? What signals should it send to Putin to prevent...

In post-war elections a large number of citizens vote for political parties with deep roots in the violent organizations of the past. However, despite the prevalence of rebel, militia, and military successor parties, their success varies dramatically. This study explores the correlates of civil...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

As seldom before, the current war in Ukraine has seen the use of World War II analogies by belligerents and also some Western non-belligerents. They thereby follow in the footsteps of such political leaders as Anthony Eden, Margaret Thatcher, Joseph Stalin, or John F. Kennedy. Indeed, statesmen...

The essay examines the commercial and financial activities of Palla Strozzi, a Florentine merchant active in Lyon in the first half of the 16th century. A cousin of the leaders of the Florentine republican movement - the brothers Piero, Roberto and Leone Strozzi, allies of France against duke...

This study examines the economic legacy of civilian killings during the Korean War, which disproportionately targeted local elites, educated individuals, and their families. For identification, we exploit plausibly exogenous variation in the spatial distribution of killings driven by...

Economic resources are often seen as decisive for the outcomes of military conflicts. This paper asks whether “deeper pockets” help win wars. We construct a fine-grained dataset covering more than 700 interstate disputes and rely on exogenous resource price shocks to estimate the causal...

Based on empirical evidence, this research: highlights the timeline of changes in Ukrainian agricultural sector since the onset of the full-scale war in 2022 and the maritime blockade affecting exports; examines the relevant transformation of the illegal grain market amid these extraordinary...

This study aims to develop an analytical framework for understanding the social and economic outcomes of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine by studying its impact on the labor market and migration, the economy and trade, social capital, and volunteering in Ukraine. The main economic and...

Russia is going to great lengths to ensure that the war in Ukraine is perceived by its citizens as a distant military operation that does not affect them directly. But the consequences of both the war and the forced integration of the occupied Ukrainian territories are large-scale, diverse and...

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, we offers insights into the far-reaching consequences of wars. Based on a new dataset on major conflicts since 1870, the findings show that wars cause a substantial decline in GDP and spike in inflation within war zones. Interestingly, countries...

Die explorative Studie beschäftigt sich mit der Integration ukrainischer Kriegsflüchtlinge in Arbeitsmarkt und Arbeitswelt in Deutschland. Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine sind oft ungewöhnlich hochqualifiziert und überwiegend weiblich, sie unterliegen auch weniger restriktiven Bedingungen als...

In view of increasing geopolitical tensions, the economic consequences and costs of wars on the global economy are increasingly coming into focus. In their Kiel Policy Brief, the authors examine the costs of more than 150 wars since 1870. In the immediate theaters of war alone, real GDP falls by...

The German state has already paid compensation for damages caused by the Ovaherero war – to the German settlers and companies that were able to claim such war damages from 1904 onwards, as well as to some Africans. Attentive readers of Helmut Bley’s seminal monograph on German colonial rule...

World War 1 exacerbated the cost of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19 in two ways. First, it facilitated the spread the flu virus through the movement of clusters of infected soldiers and sailors. Second, it constrained public health measures that would have reduced mortality (as during the...

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 also called the sovereignty of Belarus into question. The country served as a launching pad for the attack, thus becoming a co-aggressor. However, relations between Minsk and Moscow changed the longer the war has lasted. Belarusian...

In its war of attrition against Ukraine, the Kremlin is counting on outnumbering the enemy over a long period in terms of both hardware and personnel. Following the unpopular partial mobilisation in autumn 2022, the recruitment of contract soldiers and volunteer fighters was stepped up...