Star variables, such as potential output and the neutral real interest rate, are fundamental to economic policymaking but challenging to identify due to their latent nature. Buncic, Pagan, and Robinson (2023) highlight the difficulty of identifying star variables within short macroeconomic...

We offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy. The standard approach to determine what policy rule a central bank should follow is to take a single structural model and minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In this paper, we propose monetary...

This paper describes the structure and estimation of a structural macro-econometric model of the Northern Ireland economy. We show how it can be used to assess the potential impact of economic shocks and policy changes. Specifically, we have done so by examining the effects of shocks to UK...

We construct a narrative instrument for government investment from official records in Germany. Using structural vector autoregressions, we document a significant crowding-in of private investment and an output multiplier of roughly 2. Then, we match a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general...

Im Rahmen eines Forschungsvorhabens für das BMWK hat die GWS zusammen mit Prognos die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen berechnet. Die direkten Wirkungen der Maßnahmen im Energiebereich sind in bottom-up Modellen der Prognos AG ermittelt worden. Die...

Identification based on higher moments has drawn increasing theoretical attention and been widely adopted in empirical practice in macroeconometrics in the last two decades. This article reviews two parallel strands of the literature: identification strategies based on heteroskedasticity and...

This paper presents updated and newly derived estimates using various impact models, including biophysical and econometric models, to evaluate the direct economic costs of climate change in Ireland. The estimates are completed for five climate impacts: sea level rise, heat effects on labour...

Identifiability of the parameters is an important precondition for consistent estimation of models designed to describe empirical phenomena. Nevertheless, many estimation exercises proceed without a preliminary investigation into the identifiability of its models. As a consequence, the estimates...

Over the last decades, macro-economists have renewed their efforts to reduce the gap between monetary macroeconomics and real-world central banking. This paper reviews how macroeconomics has since 2016 approached the possible introduction of retail central bank digital currencies (CBDC). A...

The benefits provided by ecosystem services, such as crop pollination and water purification, are of great importance to any economy, both directly and indirectly. Therefore, nature-inclusive decision-making requires that such benefits are taken into account in the economic decision-making...

This article presents a comprehensive study on developing a predictive product pricing model using LightGBM, a machine learning method optimized for regression challenges in situations with limited historical data. It begins by detailing the core principles of LightGBM, including decision trees,...

This paper presents updated and newly derived estimates using various impact models, including biophysical and econometric models, to evaluate the direct economic costs of climate change in Ireland. The estimates are completed for five climate impacts: sea level rise, heat effects on labour...

This paper shifts studies on macroeconomic models from a national to a regional scope. Regions, indeed, often follow growth trajectories that dif- fer greatly from others within the same country. In this study we propose a macroeconometric model for 20 economies corresponding to the Italian...

This paper develops G3MOD, a semi-structural gap-trend model designed for frequent external sector forecasts crucial in macroeconomic forecasting. Focused on the G3 economies (US, Euro Area, and China) and the rest of the world, G3MOD leverages insights from central banks' policy models, to...

The paper documents the latest extensions of the Bank of Ghana's Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), used regularly to produce policy analysis and forecasts in support of the Bank's policy processes. The decomposition of GDP allows to separate the agriculture and oil sectors, driven by exogenous...

The calibration of monetary policy is particularly challenging at a time of large shocks. Interest rates in Hungary rose sharply in response a significant increase in inflation and depreciation in the forint in 2022. As inflationary pressures have eased, the base rate has been reduced but...

This research study explores how decarbonisation strategies, combined with different ambitious approaches for reducing and slowing resource use, can meet the goals of Austria's circular economy strategy and contribute to carbon neutrality. The study examines the biophysical and economic impacts...

Is the harmonization of different food standards between countries in the context of free trade agreements exclusively positive, or is there a risk of high social costs for consumers? The harmonization of different national regulations plays an important role in contemporary trade policy. In...

This paper applies the semi-structural model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to analyse wage growth, price inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. It is part of a broader project coordinated by Bernanke and Blanchard to provide a unified framework for analysing and...

Identification based on higher moments has drawn increasing theoretical attention and been widely adopted in empirical practice in macroeconometrics in the last two decades. This article reviews two parallel strands of the literature: identification strategies based on heteroskedasticity and...