In this paper, we conduct a large-scale field experiment to investigate the manipulability of prediction markets. The main experiment involves randomly shocking prices across 817 separate markets; we then collect hourly price data to examine whether the effects of these shocks persist over time....

This document provides recommendations for the statistical recording of capacity allocation and balancing markets, which are crucial for addressing deviations between supply and demand in electricity markets. It also includes guidance on transactions related to the electricity congestion income...

This document provides recommendations for the statistical recording of capacity allocation and balancing markets, which are crucial for addressing deviations between supply and demand in electricity markets. It also includes guidance on transactions related to the electricity congestion income...

Since 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only federally licensed prediction market in the United States. Using transaction-level data on over 300,000 contracts, we provide the first systematic evidence on its pricing. Kalshi's contract prices are informative and improve in accuracy as markets...

As digital platforms continue to evolve, they facilitate the exchange of information and create opportunities for innovation-driven growth and introduce new challenges for enterprises navigating research and development-driven transformation. In the study, we used the Probit model, IV-Probit...

We study a large market model of dynamic matching with no monetary transfers and a continuum of agents who have to be assigned items at each date. When the social planner can only elicit ordinal agents' preferences, we prove that under a mild regularity assumption, incentive compatible and...

This article explores the impact of procedural information on the behavior of students under two school admission procedures commonly used in the US, the EU, and other jurisdictions: the Gale-Shapley mechanism and the Boston mechanism. In a lab experiment, I compare the impact of information...

Heterogeneous interconnections, which link regulated electricity markets to liberalised ones, are becoming increasingly important. Several such interconnections are set to be established in the near future especially between European and North African countries (e.g., Tunisia-Italy,...

Governments in low-income countries are increasingly integrating off-grid electricity provision into national electrification strategies, creating novel, decentralized markets for electricity. This paper studies a highly decentralized product that plays an important role in energy access: pay as...

Since 2021, Kalshi has operated as the only licensed prediction market in the United States. We show that Kalshi's contract prices are relatively accurate predictors of outcomes and their accuracy increases as markets come closer to closing. However, the prices also display a systematic...

This paper examines the welfare implications of priority service in a frictional search environment with heterogeneous outside options. Priority search facilitates expedited matching with public options in the market by charging a service premium. Our main analysis demonstrates that a...

I study tâtonnement processes in a matching market without transfers. In each period, schools set cutoffs, i.e. the preference ranks of the least preferred students they are willing to admit, and students accept their most preferred offers. Cutoffs are adjusted on the basis of demand-supply...

Priority-based allocation often requires eliminating justified envy, making serial dictatorship (SD) the only non-wasteful direct mechanism with that property. However, SD's outcomes can conflict with the policymaker's objectives. We introduce visible fairness, a framework where fairness is...

For the scientific understanding and correct adjustment of domestic and foreign economic operations, both academic research and policy-making require the analysis of the relationship between the proportion principle of labor distribution, market mechanism and state economic adjustment. The...