The Levy Institute Microsimulation Model (LIMM) is a tool used for policy simulations to estimate ex-ante the employment and income effects of sectoral investments. In Istenes (2023), a simple implementation of the LIMM for New York State initially had difficulty producing realistic conditional...

As the baby boomer generation enters retirement, the payas-you-go pension system in Germany is under an increasing amount of pressure. Relevant changes, in particular higher contribution rates or lower pension levels, are causing tension between generations: Either the financial burden on the...

Europe's demographic shift is putting increasing pressure on long-term care (LTC) systems and raising concerns about the sustainability of LTC financing. This paper analyses Austria's LTC system, particularly its universal long-term care allowance (LTCA), and uses a dynamic microsimulation model...

Population ageing will reshape economies around the world, with particular implications for longterm care (LTC) systems. As a result of past fertility decline, reflected in high levels of childlessness and smaller family networks, the growing demand for care is confronted by a declining supply...

This paper describes a novel method for the comparative estimation of long-term care needs, care arrangements and care gaps. Our approach generalizes an Austrian administrative procedure for the assessment of care needs and uses data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe...

This study assesses the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on catastrophic health expenditures and income inequality in Benin. A microsimulation was calibrated to estimate the impact of the pandemic under three different shock scenarios: low, moderate, and severe. The analysis relies on secondary...

This report documents the application of the SimPaths dynamic microsimulation framework – originally developed with reference to the UK – to the Italian context. The report describes model structure and adaptation with respect to the UK template, the input data used, and discusses...

While the body of literature on the non-take-up of public aid has grown substantially in recent years, a notable gap remains in the literature of non-take-up rates for student aid programs, where research is still extremely limited. This paper examines the non-take-up rate of Germany's federal...

Social assistance for education is one of several instruments in Indonesia to support poor and vulnerable people. There are two main programs which is Family Hope Program (PKH) and Smart Indonesia Program (PIP). Analyzing the distributional impact to both programs is very important to improve...

This paper aims to assess the extent to which cash transfers, direct taxes, and social contributions help to reduce gender income inequalities in seven Latin American countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. We apply microsimulation techniques to household...

As middle income countries grow they see an increase in demand for energy. To avoid extreme climate change as these countries develop, there will be a need to decarbonise the increased energy consumption as they grow. We use the PRICES microsimulation model to examine the impact of carbon...

As populations age, the sustainability of long-term care systems increasingly depends on the availability of informal care, particularly from partners. This paper addresses the question of how much care we may expect partners to provide in the future by projecting demand for long-term care...

The Spanish Minimum Income scheme, introduced in 2020, offers beneficiaries a unique national guaranteed income as a last-resort benefit. However, the scheme's design featured a lack of work incentives for low earners, potentially leading to inactivity traps. To address this flaw the Spanish...

Die Armutsgefährdungsquote, ein zentraler Indikator zur Analyse der Einkommensverteilung, gewinnt im Kontext wirtschaftlicher Prognosen zunehmend an Bedeutung. Die jüngsten Krisen, darunter die COVID-19-Pandemie und der Ukraine-Krieg, sowie staatliche Hilfsmaßnahmen haben die...

Development of microsimulation models often requires reweighting some input dataset to reflect the characteristics of a different population of interest. In this paper we explore a machine learning approach whereas a variant of decision trees (Gradient Boosted Machine) is used to replicate the...

Trade mis-invoicing represents a significant economic challenge in Ghana, with losses estimated at 3.03 per cent of gross domestic product in 2018. We examine the potential of a universal child benefit in Ghana through a counterfactual taxation of illicit financial flows. Using microsimulation,...

Der Koalitionsvertrag der Bundesregierung sieht bei der Lohnsteuer die Überführung der Steuerklassenkombination III/V für verheiratete Paare in das Faktorverfahren der Steuerklasse IV vor, mit dem Ziel, die wirtschaftliche Unabhängigkeit und Fairness zu stärken. Das Faktorverfahren könnte...

The Ingreso Mínimo Vital (Minimum Vital Income), Spain's nationwide minimum income scheme introduced in 2020, offers beneficiaries a unique national guaranteed income as a last-resort benefit. However, the scheme's design featured a lack of work incentives for low earners, potentially leading...

Spatial dynamic microsimulations have distinct potential to operate and project populations on finely detailed geographic level. For this, a detailed building and dwellings data set is typically needed, such that inner-region migration flows and local population developments may be modelled...

Spatial dynamic microsimulations have distinct potential to operate and project populations on finely detailed geographic level. For this, a detailed building and dwellings data set is typically needed, such that inner-region migration flows and local population developments may be modelled...

Demographers use microsimulation for studying individual life courses and their attributes; events are specified to be the result of stochastic processes based on predetermined probabilistic rules. In this study, we developed and validated a microsimulation model to reconstruct individual's life...

Die Studie analysiert die Verteilungswirkung des automatischen und diskretionären Ausgleichs der kalten Progression im Jahr 2025. Der Zwei-Drittel-Ausgleich der Inflation führt zu einem Entlastungsvolumen von 1.371 Mio. €, wobei das oberste Einkommensdezil 20,7% und das unterste 1,5%...

Vor dem Hintergrund der anhaltend hohen geschlechtsspezifischen Unterschiede bei den Alterspensionen werden in der vorliegenden Studie die Auswirkungen erstens einer Höherbewertung von Teilversicherungszeiten für Kindererziehung und Arbeitslosigkeit, zweitens der Einführung eines...

Zambia's reliance on rain-fed agriculture makes its economy and population highly vulnerable to frequent droughts and irregular rainfall. This paper assesses the role of social protection, specifically the Social Cash Transfer (SCT) program, in mitigating drought-induced poverty and consumption...