Purpose - The primary purpose of this study is to unveil the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, with a specific focus on five major oil-importing countries. By examining this relationship, the research aims to provide valuable insights for policymakers, investors and...

Purpose - Developing price forecasts for various agricultural commodities has long been a significant undertaking for a variety of agricultural market players. The weekly wholesale price of edible oil in the Chinese market over a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010 to January 3, 2020, is the...

Oil prices have been increasingly volatile since 2004. However, the impact of this volatility on domestic end-user prices differs significantly by fuel and country. Some countries fully pass through global price movements to domestic end-user prices, and some countries freeze domestic fuel...

The rapid growth of US ethanol production, driven by the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, has raised questions about intensifying price linkages between energy and food markets. This is based on the premise that higher crude oil prices incentivize...

Understanding the determinants of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is crucial for ensuring financial stability, fostering innovation, and framing effective policies associated with the digitalization of currency. Therefore, we study how financial markets and safe haven assets can affect...

This study explores how energy price inflation affects supply chain pressures under different levels of political uncertainty. Using local projection impulse-response functions, we examine the effects of oil price shocks under two regimes: one with above-average levels of political uncertainty...

We aim to show how any variants of a unified currency among BRICS Plus countries are challengeable, by probing the disparate influence of the positive and negative alterations in the crude oil's international price on the real effective exchange rates. The paper applies the nonlinear...

We identify supply and demand shocks to the real price of natural gas in the Euro Area and the United States. Demand shocks are identified using exogenous temperature variations, while supply shocks are identified through a high-frequency strategy based on an extensive collection of...

This study compared standard VAR, SVAR with short-run restrictions, and SVAR with long-run restrictions to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) on consumer prices in South Africa after the 2008 financial crisis. The standard VAR model revealed that...

This study employs asymmetric quantile regression to investigate the asymmetric impact of WTI crude oil prices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on stock market returns from May 2014 to December 2024 in oil-importing (China, India, Germany, Italy, Japan, USA, and South Korea) and...

This paper uses data on 5-year gasoline price expectations from the US Michigan Survey of Consumers to investigate their role as a transmission channel for gasoline price shocks. Specifically, a Structural VAR model is estimated to carry out counterfactual analysis which shows that gasoline...

This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty shocks on selected U.S. financial asset prices by decomposing a traditional uncertainty shock into its supply-side and demand-side components. Following the approach by Piffer and Podstawski (2018), we identify uncertainty shocks using the price...

Negative oil supply shocks since the 1980s have increased German inflation and reduced aggregate economic activity. Using 45 years of high-frequency German administrative data, we find that these shocks disproportionally harm low-income individuals: their earnings growth falls by two percentage...

This article assesses the systemic economic impacts of oil price fluctuations on the Colombian economy though a calibrated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the year 2015. A simulation exercise was conducted, introducing a 1% positive variation in commodity prices to examine the...

This study investigates how credit to firms responds to an energy price shock by comparing the credit growth of similar firms with different energy intensities before and after the shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Credit growth of energy-intensive firms declined by 8.75...

This study examines the interactions among the oil price, Government expenditure, money supply, real effective exchange rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) across Malaysia's finance, retail and wholesale, manufacturing, agriculture and overall sectors by using a Structural Vector...

We estimate distributional implications of global food and oil price shocks by utilizing monthly panel data on consumption and income from India, and an IV strategy that removes variation coming from global demand shocks. While both shocks lead to stagflationary aggregate dynamics, they differ...

This study investigates the impact of global price fluctuations on economic welfare in Burkina Faso, with a particular focus on the role of trade intermediaries. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) calibrated with a 2019 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), the analysis incorporates a trade...

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to model it accurately. This paper introduces a novel suite of Bayesian VAR models for euro area HICP energy inflation, which adopts a granular, bottom-up approach - disaggregating...