We consider a dynamic setting where two countries with competing claims to a resource/asset first arm and then choose whether to resolve their dispute through war or peacefully through settlement. War precludes international trade and can be destructive, but also locks gains and eliminates...

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, a process of securitisation of the European Union's (EU) external action can be observed. From an institutional perspective, the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) increasingly overlaps with the Common Security and Defence...

Various options are being discussed to increase Germany's defense capabilities. Increasing the size of the Bundeswehr is proving difficult, and compulsory military service hardly seems feasible for economic and socio-political reasons. A European army and technological alternatives such as...

Peace does not rest on the goodwill of others but on our capacity to defend ourselves and deter threats. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered whatever i l lus ions rema ined about Europe's immediate environment. Russia is intent on causing maximum harm to Ukrainians while running...

Peace does not rest on the goodwill of others but on our capacity to defend ourselves and deter threats. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered whatever i l lus ions rema ined about Europe's immediate environment. Russia is intent on causing maximum harm to Ukrainians while running...

Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own security. While EU Member States have made substantial new resources available for European defence, and European defence companies are thriving, more needs to be done. National defence spending will likely continue to rise but there is also...

Europe needs to take more responsibility for its own security. While EU Member States have made substantial new resources available for European defence, and European defence companies are thriving, more needs to be done. National defence spending will likely continue to rise but there is also...

Europe must take more responsibility for its defence, if necessary without the United States, given Washington’s volatility. In March 2025, the European Union (EU) launched a series of initiatives to strengthen defence industry and defence policy cooperation. With these new instruments also...

The combination of Russia's war against Ukraine and the declining US engagement in Europe have resulted in increased strategic convergence between Europeanist and Atlanticist states. For the time being, the primary goal is to strengthen NATO's "European pillar." To do so, member states will also...

Research & development (R&D) subsidies, especially defense R&D spending, raise private R&D investment (a crowd-in effect). Public R&D funding increases employment without driving up wages. Supported industries see gains in productivity. International spillovers amplify the impact across...

This paper investigates the expansion of EU military activities, involving the European Commission, other EU-related institutions and Member States. Expenditure on EU military programmes - defence-related R&D, arms production, joint procurement, military mobility, and the supply of lethal...

This report updates and expands the data-driven work of our initial study from September 2024, which concluded that Europe would only be fit for war in several decades. We show that the situation today is even more concerning if Europe aims to be fit for war by 2030. First, Russia continues to...

There are still a number of UN arms embargoes in place to prevent the flow of arms and military material into conflict zones. Although the UN Security Council is not generally deadlocked on this issue, it has only taken relevant decisions to re-design the embargoes in a few cases over the last...

War is back in Europe and as it becomes long-lasting, the question of armament gains central importance. This report finds that Russian military industrial capacities have been rising strongly in the last two years, well beyond the levels of Russian material losses in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the...

Mattingly (2024) investigates how authoritarian leaders select military generals, focusing on the People's Liberation Army of China. Three main findings emerge. First, in general, Chinese leaders consider both personal ties (as a proxy for loyalty to the leader) and combat experience (as a proxy...

At least since Russia deployed North Korean artillery and ballistic missiles against Ukraine, it is obvious that Pyongyang fuels conflicts far beyond North-East Asia. Yet, the indirect threats that North Korea poses to Europe's security and stability have developed a new quality: Pyongyang is...

2023 witnessed a sharp increase in total defence expenditure, with a total amount of €279 billion being spent by European Union Member States (MS), which corresponds to 1.6% of MS Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The development and procurement of new weapons systems was the primary factor...

2023 witnessed a sharp increase in total defence expenditure, with a total amount of €279 billion being spent by European Union Member States (MS), which corresponds to 1.6% of MS Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The development and procurement of new weapons systems was the primary factor...

As the war in Ukraine grinds into its third winter, Kyiv and its partners face a test of their resolve, preparedness, and commitment to European security. Russia's deployment of the Oreshnik, a ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads, appears calculated to stoke fear.

Over the past decade, Turkey’s defence industry has undergone rapid development and its products have repeatedly proved their military capability. The Bayraktar-TB2 drone - a product of the Turkish manufacturer Baykar - is exported to numerous countries. In Ukraine, it is being used...

Die Dauer militärischer Beschaffungen zeigt die wirtschaftliche Notwendigkeit, Bedarfsträger und Bedarfsdeckung institutionell zusammenzuführen, um die Ausrüstung der Bundeswehr schneller und wirtschaftlicher zu beschaffen. Es erscheint sinnvoll, die Rüstungsplanung und -beschaffung unter...

Russia's fullscale invasion of Ukraine since 24 February 2022 has not shaken France's security policy as fundamentally as it has Germany's. France sees its previous goals confirmed, particularly in terms of strengthening Europe's strategic sovereignty. Nevertheless, it has been adapting in many...

The EU is not yet a defense public goods buyer, but it is generally a public goods provider in the form of the single market, which includes security goods. Public defense goods provision includes a functioning defense market, but the European market for defense equipment remains insufficiently...

"New Defense," akin to "NewSpace," challenges the traditional defense industry with innovative, agile, software-first companies. Lack of European equivalent to US tech giants raises concerns about strategic credibility. European technology sector's military assistance to Ukraine remains limited...

Using a perspective external to the Swedish Armed Forces this study examine the Swedish management of capability and technology development focusing on defence equipment. The study analyses a value chain that identifies activities from strategy definition to delivered capability in the case of...

After decades of relative peace and security, Europe is faced with a conflict on its doorstep that threatens to upend the recent stability and shift geopolitical order. Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine has forced Europe to confront its shortcomings with regard to providing its own security...

The complexities of multipolarity, heightened global tensions, and increasing militarisation are reshaping the disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation landscape within the United Nations. This report examines these evolving dynamics, contextualising their historical importance and...

Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine has brought war back to Europe. Failing to stop Russia's aggression would leave Europe at a critical disadvantage for decades, with a long-term threat to peace in the European Union. The EU can no longer rely on United States leadership in NATO and European...