The introduction of a firm or product life cycle into New Keynesian frameworks fundamentally alters the design of optimal monetary policy. Economic welfare and the Phillips curve then depend on the gap between inflation and a time-varying inflation target that arises endogenously from turnover....

The central contention of this report is that the UK fiscal framework has some desirable features but is not delivering good outcomes. We are in a bad equilibrium. The UK's fiscal framework is based around a set of pass-fail, numerical fiscal rules. The fiscal debate is overly fixated on the...

A reform in the German state of Hesse selectively shifted the responsibility for overseeing and enforcing a balanced budget rule at the municipal level. Oversight was transferred from politically affiliated county administrators to non-political and potentially more impartial fiscal supervisors...

Fiscal rules have been shown to support fiscal discipline by improving government budget balances and restraining the growth of debt. However, questions remain about what enhances their effectiveness and how certain conditions help to build the credibility needed for their survival and success....

During the neoliberal era, fiscal policy was side-lined: from a political economy perspective, it was seen as biased toward deficit and debt accumulation, while from a macroeconomic perspective, its potential role as a business cycle stabiliser was shifted to monetary policy, in line with the...

The aim of this paper is to investigate how the central bank of Mexico - a prototypical emerging market economy (EME) - adjusted its reaction coefficients according to an estimated Taylor-type rule in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the posterior surge in inflation. To do so, we estimate a...

Are restrictions on fiscal policy necessary for monetary policy to be able to deliver price stability? When households are Ricardian, the net present value of future fiscal surpluses needs to equate the real value of government debt absent inflation. We show that when households are not...

This study empirically explores the dynamic effect of MP and FP on the economic growth of Thailand from Q1:2003 to Q2:2024. In this study, data analysis was conducted using an advanced sequence of the econometric modeling approach to guarantee that the estimated results were more consistent and...

We offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy. The standard approach to determine what policy rule a central bank should follow is to take a single structural model and minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In this paper, we propose monetary...

I show that in linear rational expectation models, the effect of a monetary tightening can be simulated using contemporaneous and anticipated monetary policy shocks that replicate the forward curves observed during the period of interest, normalized with the forward curve observed in the quarter...

We develop a simple two-period principal-agent model in which a present-biased government, the agent, chooses public investment levels given a deficit rule imposed by the principal. The principal sets a deficit cap to curb current debt-financed consumption. In doing so, it also reduces long-term...

Public debt has increased steadily over the years, leaving many countries at risk of debt distress and even pushing some to default. This paper analyses the impact of sovereign default on post-default debtto-GDP ratios in 144 countries from 1980 to 2019. Applying the entropy balancing method, we...

To study the economic and welfare consequences of alternative time paths towards net zero CO2e emissions, we develop a multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model of an open economy with heterogeneity in abatement costs across sectors and firms and with adjustment costs in the...

This paper investigates whether the new expenditure rule of the European Union (EU) can restore dynamic stability and determinacy with bounded public debt in an otherwise unstable economic environment. We build upon the standard New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model so as to compare...

The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which was adopted to support economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, represents the first large-scale EU-wide investment initiative, including decarbonisation goals. Yet temporary RRF spending will not be sufficient to meet the climate targets in...

The reform of the European fiscal rules came into force on 30 April 2024. The new rules, like the former ones, impose a depressive bias on domestic fiscal policies, leaving Member States' no fiscal room for manoeuvre. At the same time, the European Pillar of Social Rights sets ambitious targets...

Subdued economic activity and low tax revenues, especially during crises, drive borrowing and increase public debt. During these periods, to ease the debt burden, central banks may face pressure to deviate from policy targets. Under fiscal dominance, debt sustainability relies on low interest...

The post-pandemic inflation surge underscores that monetary policy continues to be hampered by two long-standing challenges: the pretence of knowledge and the proclivity for discretion. Focusing on the Federal Reserve, this paper demonstrates how simple policy rules, designed to be robust under...

I show that in a canonical HANK model, under a balanced budget fiscal rule, the effect of a nominal interest rate peg is much larger than in a representative agent (RA) model. By contrast, under a standard fiscal rule where tax revenue responds gradually to deviations of the debt-to-GDP ratio...