We explore the impact of fear on demand for government intervention. Our empirical strategy takes advantage of a unique quasi-experiment: During our survey in Russia, a very popular television program misreported the riskiness of the Covid-19 virus, thereby providing short-term exogenous...

Gerschenkron (1962) argued that public institutions such as the State Bank of the Russian Empire spurred the country's industrialization. We test this assertion by exploiting plant-level variation in access to State Bank branches using a unique geocoded factory data set. Employing an...

This paper formalizes the geopolitical externality of climate policy and estimates its plausible magnitudes. Specifically, domestic reductions in fossil fuel demand depress global prices, thereby lowering export revenues for resource-rich autocracies - many of which allocate substantial...

Purpose This study examines whether CEO power influences the book-based and market-based performance of Russian companies when it is restricted by the presence of essential shareholders, namely, state and influential businessmen. Design/methodology/approach Managerial power is divided into...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

• By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia's financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. • We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. • A one-euro...

Authoritarian states are increasingly leveraging non-state cyber capabilities to expand their operational reach, thereby challenging conventional distinctions between state and non-state activity. This practice complicates attribution and presents obstacles for coordinated international...

In May 2025, the European Commission published a Roadmap outlining various measures aimed at phasing out all Russian pipeline gas and LNG imports into the EU. It was followed by a legislative Proposal in June, which stipulates firm prohibitions on importing Russian gas and providing long-term...

In the period March 2022 to June 2024, nearly €796 billion of aid was approved either under the Temporary Crisis and Transition Framework or directly under the Treaty and based on TCTF principles. Around €219 billion was actually granted to companies, representing 27% of the aid approved and...

This Brief seeks to address the lack of systematic, comparable data on Russia's engagement in West Africa. Such data is crucial for assessing the threat posed by Russian-sponsored FIMI, which often serves as a tool to advance broader strategic objectives in regions where Russia seeks to expand...

This Brief seeks to address the lack of systematic, comparable data on Russia's engagement in West Africa. Such data is crucial for assessing the threat posed by Russian-sponsored FIMI, which often serves as a tool to advance broader strategic objectives in regions where Russia seeks to expand...

Globalization and the spread of technological innovations have made world markets and economies increasingly unified and conditioned by international trade, not only for sales markets but above all for the supply of raw materials necessary for the functioning of the production complex of each...

This study aims to develop an analytical framework for understanding the social and economic outcomes of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine by studying its impact on the labor market and migration, the economy and trade, social capital, and volunteering in Ukraine. The main economic and...

This report updates and expands the data-driven work of our initial study from September 2024, which concluded that Europe would only be fit for war in several decades. We show that the situation today is even more concerning if Europe aims to be fit for war by 2030. First, Russia continues to...

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, reshaped the EU's security landscape, prompting sanctions aimed at weakening Russia's war capabilities. These sanctions also redefined the roles of public authorities and the private sector, introducing new challenges in a shifting geopolitical...

Russia apparently aims to be capable of attacking targets in the Baltic Sea region from Lake Ladoga, which is located north of Saint Petersburg and only 40 kilometres from the Finnish border. Since 2023, Russia has been evaluating the deployment of corvettes equipped with cruise missiles there....

The objective of the current work is to estimate to what extent support measures of the Bank of Russia and the Government of the Russian Federation promoted financial stability of banks and the financial market overall so to sustain lending economy-wide during the crisis periods of 2014, 2020,...

The paper is devoted to econometric analysis of the impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict, which started in February 2022, on TV advertising strategies of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. With the help of quantitative methods, the study analyzes changes in TV advertising expenditures of...

A new mathematical structural model of the exchange rate and a new nonlinear multifactorial dependence of the exchange rate dynamics on a wide system of fundamental economic factors are the main results of the work. The model includes a wide system of economic factors based on the balance of...

Russia is going to great lengths to ensure that the war in Ukraine is perceived by its citizens as a distant military operation that does not affect them directly. But the consequences of both the war and the forced integration of the occupied Ukrainian territories are large-scale, diverse and...

Drawing on contrasting theoretical perspectives of self-interest and utilitarian/ethical motivations, we examine the degree to which a company's pace of departure from Russia after the Ukraine invasion is driven by its exposure to the Russian market. Moreover, we investigate whether firm-level...

In sheer quantity, the five original BRICS countries appear impressive. They account for a substantial share of the world's population, economy, trade and muster large militaries. In January 2024, BRICS gained even more steam, by admitting four new member states that participated in the most...

Russia's war of aggression, which has brought wide destruction and loss to Ukraine, has also transformed the Russian economy in significant ways. The Russian government's role in the economy has grown, with an ever-increasing amount of economic resources allocated to the war effort. The...

Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor...

This paper provides an overview of the major changes in Russia's macroeconomic policies since the early 1990s. For decades, the quest for economic stability and security have been leading principles of Russian macroeconomic policies. To understand the genesis of these macroeconomic policy...

This study examines the economic implications of Russia-Ukraine conflict has had on business operations in Ukraine and Lithuania. It seeks to examine how businesses have responded to the turmoil emanating from the conflict by breaking down disruptions in supply chains, regulatory adjustments as...

Recent global crises, such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine War, have accelerated efforts to reduce dependency to fossil fuels due to soaring prices. This research aims to identify the key factors such as climate, electricity and gas price, GDP, renewable energy use, population and COVID-19...

The agricultural industry in Russia demonstrated a notable growth since 2010. Russian policymakers strive to further increase agricultural production and set new targets for the industry for the years ahead. While agroholdings are regarded as one of the main driving forces behind the recent...

Geoeconomic pressure - the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic ends - has become a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically extract signals of...

We consider the applicability of simple statistical models to Russia's short-term economic trends in a wartime context. We develop several composite indicators combining economic variables to predict Russian GDP trends both before and after the invasion if Ukraine in 2022. In addition, our SVAR...