This study empirically investigates the impact of Inflation Targeting (IT) on nominal interest rates over the past 40 years, focusing on 10 advanced and emerging economies. By using a Binary Regime Model embedded within a Backward-Looking Taylor, our findings confirm that IT adoption has...

How do the President and the Congress affect the policy choices of the Federal Open Market Committee, the primary policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve System (the Fed)? I draw on a commonly used tool for estimating the sensitivity of Fed responses to output and inflation - the Taylor rule -...

Subdued economic activity and low tax revenues, especially during crises, drive borrowing and increase public debt. During these periods, to ease the debt burden, central banks may face pressure to deviate from policy targets. Under fiscal dominance, debt sustainability relies on low interest...

In this paper, we review the recent economic outlook, policy decisions and communication of the ECB against the backdrop of growing uncertainty. First, inflation heterogeneity has receded with inflation, thus contributing to facilitating the design of monetary policy. Second, monetary easing is...

In this paper, we review the recent economic outlook, policy decisions and communication of the ECB against the backdrop of growing uncertainty. First, inflation heterogeneity has receded with inflation, thus contributing to facilitating the design of monetary policy. Second, monetary easing is...

This paper estimates various Taylor rules for Norway based on the observed money market rate (Nibor). We begin by examining standard Taylor rules from the literature, applying them to Norwegian data to assess their fit. Next, we estimate a benchmark Taylor rule that is included in Norges Bank's...

In this paper, we propose a new set of indicators of Central Bank's communication to estimate speech intensity in five different macroeconomic fields: monetary conditions, financial stability, external competitiveness, labour and social conditions and economic activity. In addition, we also...

In this paper, different assessments of the ECB's monetary policy stance are reviewed, beyond the mere observation of the sharp rise and subsequent decline of the policy rate. Overall, the monetary policy stance has been more moderate during the tightening cycle than what has been indicated by...

In this paper, different assessments of the ECB's monetary policy stance are reviewed, beyond the mere observation of the sharp rise and subsequent decline of the policy rate. Overall, the monetary policy stance has been more moderate during the tightening cycle than what has been indicated by...

The paper seeks to assess the current monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). To do so, it analyses factors driving the inflation dynamics in the euro area (EA) and their potential persistence, drawing comparisons with the inflation drivers and policy response in the United...

The paper seeks to assess the current monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). To do so, it analyses factors driving the inflation dynamics in the euro area (EA) and their potential persistence, drawing comparisons with the inflation drivers and policy response in the United...

Persistent exchange rate depreciation and its debilitating effects on rising inflation have remained a concern in Nigeria. This article explores the effects of exchange rate pass-through on producer prices, consumer prices, export prices, import prices and the Taylor rule from 2000 to 2023,...

The Fed's policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to 2021. Instead of exogenously partitioning the data based on tenures of the...

This article presents the results of a comprehensive cross-country analysis of central banks' reaction functions in eighteen emerging economies from 2000Q1 to 2017Q4. Utilizing quarterly panel data, the study employs the generalized method of moments (GMM) alongside pooled OLS and fixed-effects...

In this paper, the ECB monetary policy stance is assessed by comparing the recent tightening cycle (2022-today) with the two preceding ones, which took place in 2000-2001 and in 2006-2008. Interest rates, quantitative indicators and monetary conditions indices (MCIs) are used for this purpose....

We study the market-perceived monetary policy rule of the Bank of England (BoE) using financial market data and macroeconomic surprises. Leveraging exogenous variations in inflation and industrial production (IP) surprises around Office for National Statistics releases, we estimate gilt yield...

Despite a number of helpful changes, including the adoption of an inflation target, the Fed's monetary policy strategy proved insufficiently resilient in recent years. While the Fed eased policy appropriately during the pandemic, it fell behind the curve during the post-pandemic recovery. During...

We study the optimal monetary policy problem in a New Keynesian economy with a zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate, when the steady state natural rate (r*) becomes permanently negative. We show that the optimal policy aims to approach gradually a new steady state with positive...

Taylor et al. (2023) explored the impact of identity cues on online behavior, employing a large-scale field experiment on a social news aggregation website. Findings reveal that identity cues significantly influence how individuals form opinions and engage with online content, accounting for 28%...

We consider a two-agent New Keynesian model with savers and hand-to-mouth households with quasi-separable utility functions as introduced by Bilbiie (2020a). This framework allows for separate parameterization of consumption-hours complementarity and income effects on labor supply. We examine...

Central bank communication plays a crucial role in the conduct of monetary policy, yet the research on central bank communication, while growing, is still scarce. In this paper, we analyze the communication reaction function of the European Central Bank (ECB) through topic-based indices derived...

This paper investigates the implications of monetary policy rules during the surge and subsequent decline of inflation in the euro area and compares them to the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB). It focuses on versions of the Taylor (1993) and Orphanides and Wieland (OW)...

The Fed's policy rule shifts during different phases of the business cycle, particularly in relation to monetary easing and tightening phases. This finding is established through a dynamic mixture model, which estimates regime-dependent Taylor-type rules using US quarterly data from 1960 to...

The Fed's policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to 2021. Instead of exogenously partitioning the data based on tenures of the...

We revisit the optimal-contract approach to the design of monetary institutions, in the light of the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on interest rates and the resort to Quantitative Easing (QE) in recent years. Four of our lessons have not yet been incorporated in the practices of inflation targeting...