We provide initial estimates of the additional weapons and troops Europe will need to defend itself, assuming an effective US withdrawal from Europe. Russia's military production has ramped up: In 2024, Russia produced and refurbished an estimated 1,550 tanks, 5,700 armoured vehicles and 450...

Wir liefern erste Schätzungen über die zusätzlichen Waffen und Truppen, die Europa zur Selbstverteidigung benötigen würde, falls sich die USA aus Europa zurückziehen. Die russische Militärproduktion wurde hochgefahren: Es wurden schätzungsweise 1.550 Panzer, 5.700 gepanzerte Fahrzeuge...

Hintergrund der Studie und Datengrundlage: - Die russische Invasion der Ukraine hat seit dem 24. Februar 2022 eine massive Fluchtbewegung ausgelöst, bei der überwiegend Frauen und Kinder in europäische Länder, einschließlich Deutschland, geflüchtet sind. Rund eine Million Menschen aus der...

We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just...

The research in this discussion paper explores the significant role of feminist perspectives and actions in fostering sustainable gender-transformative changes within Ukraine, particularly during the ongoing defence against Russian aggression. It highlights the ability of feminist movements to...

Aim: Sustainability financing is a promising instrument for the recovery of Ukrainian agriculture during and after the war, particularly in light of Ukraine’s closer integration with the European Union. This study is the first of its kind to assess the opportunities for establishing...

Die Ukraine hindert Russland seit drei Jahren daran, seinen völkerrechtswidrigen Angriffskrieg siegreich zu beenden. Über lange Phasen des Krieges befanden sich die Konfliktparteien in einem militärischen und diplomatischen Patt. Nun hat US-Präsident Donald Trump sich mit dem Aggressor...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

• Durch die Verringerung der Abhängigkeit von fossilen Energieträgern kann die EU-Klimapolitik die Finanzkraft Russlands deutlich verringern und damit dessen militärische Fähigkeiten zur Fortführung der Aggression gegen die Ukraine und darüber hinaus einschränken. • Wir liefern...

• By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia's financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. • We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. • A one-euro...

Empirical models of trade agreements implicitly assume that withdrawal from a trade agreement has an equal and opposite trade effect as accession, i.e., symmetry. With increasing opposition to international economic cooperation, it becomes urgent to test this assumption. We analyze a...

According to the US government, the Russian government is developing a programme to arm some of its satellites with nuclear warheads. Should the Kremlin acquire this capability, it could destroy key parts of the civilian satellite infrastructure by detonating a single nuclear weapon in low Earth...

More than three years after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, some of its global spillover effects continue to impact many low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs). As the world faces new global shocks - such as aid cuts and rising US tariffs - this synthesis report...

Securing access to critical raw materials has become a top priority for governments worldwide, particularly in light of geopolitical disruptions and increasing demand for materials essential to the green transition and advanced technologies. Ukraine holds substantial reserves of key raw...

This report takes stock of international support for Ukraine. It is based on almost 3 years of data collection from the Ukraine Support Tracker, stretching from January 22nd, 2022 to December 31st, 2024. Over the past 3 years, Ukraine has received a low but steady inflow of foreign aid, with...

The development of export-import activity at all levels of the national economic system is an important factor and the result of globalization and country integration in the world economy. The elaboration of sound public policy related to export-import activity is based on its assessment and...

This paper examines the impact of two massive and unexpected inflows of Ukrainians on voting behavior in Poland. The two migration shocks, caused by Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, allow us to compare the effects of conflict-induced labor migration and those of refugee...

This paper examines the rapid adoption of digital technologies by Ukrainian agroholdings, highlighting the transformative potential of agrifood digitainability, where digital innovation and sustainability intersect within agricultural practices through diverse stakeholder collaborations. We...

Geopolitics is an overarching characteristic of much of this outlook for the key themes in the global energy economy in 2025. The start of Donald Trump's second term in the White House will herald new pressures to multiple layers of the global economy, from trade to labour, monetary policy to...

The objective of this research synthesis is to collect and summarize the research literature on Ukrainian refugees in Switzerland. This is done through a systematic review, mostly in the form of a narrative review and with statistical indicators that are synthesized. A graphical summary...

Die existentielle Not der Menschen im Gazastreifen prägt derzeit außen- und sicherheitspolitische Debatten. Dort ist die Lage der Zivilbevölkerung besonders dramatisch. Doch auch anderswo - von der Ukraine über Sudan und Myanmar bis zur Demokratischen Republik Kongo und Haiti - haben Kriege...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from three experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Conducted between early 2023 and mid- 2024, the experiments reached nearly 10,000...

The purpose of the article is to present the results of a parallel survey of entrepreneurs in Poland and Ukraine aimed at identifying and measuring their common and distinctive characteristics. The main research methods include a questionnaire, comparative analysis using the Chi-square...

This study documents self-selection on human capital for Ukrainian refugees. We compare the socio-demographic characteristics of a representative sample of Ukrainian refugees who registered in Belgium in the fall of 2022 with those of the Ukrainian population before the war. Contrarily to...

This paper formalizes the geopolitical externality of climate policy and estimates its plausible magnitudes. Specifically, domestic reductions in fossil fuel demand depress global prices, thereby lowering export revenues for resource-rich autocracies - many of which allocate substantial...

For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without...

Die Ukraine hindert Russland seit drei Jahren daran, seinen völkerrechtswidrigen Angriffskrieg siegreich zu beenden. Über lange Phasen des Krieges befanden sich die Konfliktparteien in einem militärischen und diplomatischen Patt. Nun hat US-Präsident Donald Trump sich mit dem Aggressor...

• By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia's financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. • We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. • A one-euro...

• Durch die Verringerung der Abhängigkeit von fossilen Energieträgern kann die EU-Klimapolitik die Finanzkraft Russlands deutlich verringern und damit dessen militärische Fähigkeiten zur Fortführung der Aggression gegen die Ukraine und darüber hinaus einschränken. • Wir liefern...

We examine the impact of the war in Ukraine on long-term contracts in energy markets. We find that traded contract volumes fall by 65 percent in the first months of the war. A collapse in bilateral trading contributes most to this decline. To protect themselves from price shocks, firms...

European NATO members must raise defence spending by enough to deter through strength an irredentist Russia. This must be done possibly without the United States and when ageing populations demand higher social spending. Raising defence spending to sufficient levels could result in a doubling of...

As seldom before, the current war in Ukraine has seen the use of World War II analogies by belligerents and also some Western non-belligerents. They thereby follow in the footsteps of such political leaders as Anthony Eden, Margaret Thatcher, Joseph Stalin, or John F. Kennedy. Indeed, statesmen...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

The EU stands united in its unwavering support for Ukraine in the face of Russia's war of aggression and its illegal attempts to annex Ukrainian territory. The EU continues to work relentlessly with international partners to make sure Ukraine receives the material support it needs and to hold...

In the period March 2022 to June 2024, nearly €796 billion of aid was approved either under the Temporary Crisis and Transition Framework or directly under the Treaty and based on TCTF principles. Around €219 billion was actually granted to companies, representing 27% of the aid approved and...

The Covenant of Mayors initiative in the Eastern Partnership countries (CoM East) was launched in 2011. Since then it has evolved and its scope enlarged. Today, hundreds of local authorities are part of the initiative in the Eastern Partnership region committed to acting against climate change....

European refugee management is undertaking efforts in response to the largest migration crisis in Europe since WWII, caused by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. During the period between February 24, 2022 and January 10, 2023, nearly eight million people fled Ukraine, seeking...

Ukraine's research and innovation (R&I) system has faced longstanding challenges - many of which have been exacerbated by Russia's full-scale war of aggression. Even before the war, the country's research infrastructure (RI) landscape was marked by underinvestment, outdated facilities, and...