Commodity prices are set to fall sharply this year, by about 12 percent overall, as weakening global economic growth weighs on demand. In 2026, commodity prices are projected to reach a six-year low. Oil prices are expected to exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index...

The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of volatility dynamics in commodity returns, such as gold and cocoa, as well as the financial market index S&P500. It provides a comprehensive overview of each model's efficacy in capturing volatility clustering, asymmetry, and long-term...

The conflict in the Middle East has been exerting upward pressures on prices of key commodities, notably oil and gold. High commodity prices, despite relatively subdued global GDP growth, suggest some countervailing forces offsetting tepid demand, such as heightened geopolitical strains and...

Commodity price co-movements significantly impact investment decisions. High correlations constrain portfolio diversification and limit risk mitigation potential. While international markets often exhibit strong price linkages, understanding national-level dynamics is crucial for effective...

It is widely observed that primary commodity prices comove. A parallel literature asserts that correlation risk matters for financial returns. Our novel study connects these topics and presents evidence that commodity correlation risk is both non-constant and important for returns. We reconsider...

Financial and operational supply chain risks are often managed independently, by managers in different business units and with widely-varying viewpoints. Yet, differences in incentives often result in a mismatch in priorities and processes. In 2008, BMW established the Raw Material Management...

In this study, we analyze the seasonal behaviour of Indian agriculture, energy and metal commodities through the ten years preceding Super-cycle (2003-13) by considering monthly data for near-month futures prices to remove basis variance. The paper aims to investigate the seasonal behaviour of...

Despite frequent debates on commodity prices, limited attention has been paid to the processes, strategies and practices through which commodity prices are 'made' and related institutions and infrastructures. 'World commodity prices' are not passively 'discovered' but are outcomes of contested...

This paper analyzes the effect of commodity price fluctuations on a commodity-exporting economy. Using Chilean and international copper market data, I find that positive copper price changes resulting from copper-specific demand shocks generate a broad GDP expansion, with no visible decline in...

We develop an indirect inference approach relying on a linear supply and demand model serving as an auxiliary model to provide the first full empirical test of the rational expectations commodity storage model. We build a rich storage model that incorporates a supply response and four structural...

Cobalt (Co) is an essential metal used in renewable energy technologies, electro-mobility, aerospace and defence, due to its high-temperature stability and magnetic properties. It plays a crucial role in improving energy density in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and grid storage....

Copper (Cu) is used in all electrical and electronic applications, including renewable energy technologies, power grids, electric vehicles, electronic devices, aircrafts and defence technologies. Copper is mined both underground and open-pit and is widely recycled.

Gallium's (Ga) unique semiconducting properties enable highly efficient power management chips. Gallium arsenide is used for power amplifiers in devices, in telecommunications such as 5G, satellite communication and radar systems. Gallium is also used in thin-film solar panels and LEDs. Gallium...

Boron (B) is used in permanent neodymium magnets, in high-performance glass for e.g. photovoltaic panels, and chip production. Boron fibres and composites are used in aerospace structures, armour and ballistic-resistant materials. Boron can be extracted from open-pit mines and from brines.

Gallium's (Ga) unique semiconducting properties enable highly efficient power management chips. Gallium arsenide is used for power amplifiers in devices, in telecommunications such as 5G, satellite communication and radar systems. Gallium is also used in thin-film solar panels and LEDs. Gallium...

Tungsten (W) is one of the foremost defence materials, widely used in high-strength applications, and ammunition. It is suitable as well for high-temperature applications such as supersonic and hypersonic vehicles. Tungsten's density makes it ideal for armour-piercing ammunition and...

Boron (B) is used in permanent neodymium magnets, in high-performance glass for e.g. photovoltaic panels, and chip production. Boron fibres and composites are used in aerospace structures, armour and ballistic-resistant materials. Boron can be extracted from open-pit mines and from brines.

Tungsten (W) is one of the foremost defence materials, widely used in high-strength applications, and ammunition. It is suitable as well for high-temperature applications such as supersonic and hypersonic vehicles. Tungsten's density makes it ideal for armour-piercing ammunition and...

Platinum group metals (PGMs) include platinum, palladium, iridium, ruthenium and rhodium. They are excellent catalysts and indispensable for hydrogen technologies. They play a key role in hydrogen fuel cells and electrolysers, enabling the conversion of hydrogen into electricity and vice versa....

Germanium (Ge) is a semiconductor material with excellent infrared transparency and optical properties, making it indispensable in sensors, night vision systems, thermal imaging cameras, and high-speed fibre optics. It is also used in solar panels, especially for satellites, LEDs and gamma ray...

Germanium (Ge) is a semiconductor material with excellent infrared transparency and optical properties, making it indispensable in sensors, night vision systems, thermal imaging cameras, and high-speed fibre optics. It is also used in solar panels, especially for satellites, LEDs and gamma ray...

Platinum group metals (PGMs) include platinum, palladium, iridium, ruthenium and rhodium. They are excellent catalysts and indispensable for hydrogen technologies. They play a key role in hydrogen fuel cells and electrolysers, enabling the conversion of hydrogen into electricity and vice versa....

Nickel (Ni) is used in the cathodes of rechargeable batteries for e-mobility and energy storage and in superalloys for turbines in aerospace and renewable energy generation. It is corrosion resistant, increases material strength, and can withstand extreme temperatures. Due to its properties, it...

Nickel (Ni) is used in the cathodes of rechargeable batteries for e-mobility and energy storage and in superalloys for turbines in aerospace and renewable energy generation. It is corrosion resistant, increases material strength, and can withstand extreme temperatures. Due to its properties, it...

Cobalt (Co) is an essential metal used in renewable energy technologies, electro-mobility, aerospace and defence, due to its high-temperature stability and magnetic properties. It plays a crucial role in improving energy density in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and grid storage....

Manganese (Mn) is a metal used for energy storage and steel production. In battery technology, manganese is used in lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries, where it enhances stability and cost-effectiveness. In steelmaking, manganese improves toughness, hardness, and corrosion resistance, making...

Magnesium (Mg) is the lightest structural metal, offering a high strength-to-weight ratio, making it ideal for automotive, aerospace and defence applications. It is widely used in lightweight vehicle parts to improve fuel efficiency and performance, aircraft components, missile casings....

Magnesium (Mg) is the lightest structural metal, offering a high strength-to-weight ratio, making it ideal for automotive, aerospace and defence applications. It is widely used in lightweight vehicle parts to improve fuel efficiency and performance, aircraft components, missile casings....

Copper (Cu) is used in all electrical and electronic applications, including renewable energy technologies, power grids, electric vehicles, electronic devices, aircrafts and defence technologies. Copper is mined both underground and open-pit and is widely recycled.

Manganese (Mn) is a metal used for energy storage and steel production. In battery technology, manganese is used in lithium-ion and sodium-ion batteries, where it enhances stability and cost-effectiveness. In steelmaking, manganese improves toughness, hardness, and corrosion resistance, making...

Globalization and the spread of technological innovations have made world markets and economies increasingly unified and conditioned by international trade, not only for sales markets but above all for the supply of raw materials necessary for the functioning of the production complex of each...

This study leverages the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator to effectively identify bubbles in agricultural commodity markets. We analyze five major grain price indices reported by the International Grains Council (IGC) from January 2000 to April 2023, successfully...

The traceability of critical raw materials along the supply chain is pivotal in meeting wider public demands for corporate sustainability and complying with relevant regulations from the European Union that contain requirements for responsible sourcing and the transparency of supply chains. This...

The traceability of critical raw materials along the supply chain is pivotal in meeting wider public demands for corporate sustainability and complying with relevant regulations from the European Union that contain requirements for responsible sourcing and the transparency of supply chains. This...

This study analyses the impact of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) on the volatility of commodity futures returns from 4 January 2010 to 30 June 2023, using Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models. It expands the research scope to include precious...