How can a currency achieve more widespread international use? We study the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) through the lens of a unique policy experiment in Argentina. In 2023, amid a severe dollar shortage, Argentina expanded a currency swap line with the People's Bank of...

This study proposes a hybrid forecasting model that integrates the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to estimate Value at Risk (VaR) in the Rwandan foreign exchange market. The model is designed to capture...

This paper examines the role of currency crash risk in explaining the persistent profitability of carry trades. Focusing on the US Dollar-Turkish Lira market, we construct three forwardlooking measures of crash risk: risk reversals, crash probabilities from option-implied distributions, and jump...

This paper assesses the exchange rate risk exposure of Tunisia's external public debt portfolio using the delta-normal Value at Risk (VaR) approach. Based on daily data from 2004 to 2019, focusing on the main borrowing currencies (the euro, US dollar, and Japanese yen), the study identifies the...

This study evaluates the relationship investor sentiment, exchange rate volatility, net foreign portfolio investment and the country index crash risk. The moderating variable, net foreign portfolio investment, is introduced. While previous crash risk studies typically focus on individual firms,...

The position of countries in a network of external portfolio investments provides a novel macroeconomic characteristic to explain violations of uncovered interest rate parity. I derive a network centrality measure, where central countries are highly integrated with key suppliers of tradeable...

Market turnover levels and liquidity changes across various territories significantly influence currency prices, leading to continuous fluctuations. Consequently, traders and investors constantly seek strategies to mitigate exchange rate risks. This study aimed to measure and assess foreign...

We empirically assess the interlinkages between sovereign risk, measured in terms of CDS spreads, and exchange rates for a sample of emerging markets. Our period of analysis includes periods of severe stress, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Using...

This paper provides insights into the determinants of currency choice in cross-border bank lending, such as bilateral distance, financial and trade linkages to issuer countries of major currencies, and invoicing currency patterns. Cross-border bank lending in US dollars, and particularly in...

The Turkish economy has encountered significant shocks in interest rates and foreign exchange along with global risks in recent years. These shocks had an impact not only on the real sector but also on the banking sector's returns, depending on the ownership structure. This study examines the...

We leverage supervisory microdata to uncover the role of global banks' risk limits in driving exchange rate dynamics. Consistent with a model of currency intermediation under risk constraints, shocks to dealers' risk limits lead to price and quantity adjustments in the foreign exchange market....