Gemäß der aktuellen Konjunkturumfrage des Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft werden von den Unternehmen in Deutschland vorrangig Wettbewerbsnachteile sowie Handels- und Absatzbeschränkungen im Fall einer konfrontativen Wirtschaftspolitik der neuen US-Administration erwartet. Knapp ein Drittel...

Die Wachstumsaussichten für die Weltwirtschaft bleiben moderat. Das Welt-BIP dürfte in diesem Jahr um 3,0 % und im Jahr 2026 um 2,9 % zunehmen. Belastend wirkt dabei die Wirtschaftspolitik in den USA. Diese dürfte die Wachstumsdynamik sowohl in den USA als auch in anderen großen...

Die Wiederwahl von Donald Trump zum US-Präsidenten im November 2024 führt zu immensen sicherheitspolitischen Umbrüchen für Deutschland und Europa, die sich auch in den Verteidigungsausgaben und in der verteidigungsindustriellen Aufstellung der Bundesrepublik niederschlagen. Gleichzeitig mit...

Die konjunkturelle Entwicklung rund um den Globus wird in diesem Jahr erheblich durch die zunehmende Fragmentierung der Weltwirtschaft und die geopolitischen Spannungen belastet. Dazu kommen permanente Verunsicherungen und Verwirrungen, was die gesamte Weltkonjunktur in einen...

The paper departs from the perspective of "second image IPE," i.e., the need to closely combine Comparative Political Economy (CPE) and International Political Economy (IPE). More specifically, it focuses on the observation that the growth models in the (former) periphery of the global economy...

Die Weltwirtschaft ist derzeit von handelspolitischen Schocks und hoher Unsicherheit geprägt. Im Prognosezeitraum wird der Welthandel in Folge der schwächeren Weltkonjunktur und der bestehenden Handelskonflikte nur sehr verhalten expandieren. Er wird in diesem Jahr um 1,9 % und im kommenden...

During his reign from 1979 to 2005, Pope John Paul II visited 129 countries, more than the 263 Popes before him combined. I document a significant increase in exports to trading partners with a relatively high share of Catholics following a Pastoral visit, leading to a non-negligible increase in...

Foreword -- Preface -- Executive Summary -- Session 1: Energy, Climate, Growth -- Chair: Jayant Sinha -- Speakers: Jessica Seddon, Robert Stavins, Arunabha Ghosh -- Session 2: Technology, Policy, Jobs -- Chair: Sachin Chaturvedi -- Speakers: Paul Samson, Albert van Jaarsveld, Debjani Ghosh --...

Die Wiederwahl von Donald Trump zum US-Präsidenten im November 2024 führt zu immensen sicherheitspolitischen Umbrüchen für Deutschland und Europa, die sich auch in den Verteidigungsausgaben und in der verteidigungsindustriellen Aufstellung der Bundesrepublik niederschlagen. Gleichzeitig mit...

How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization,” built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any...

Despite a strong start to 2025, the German economy will experience middling growth for the time being before beginning a long-awaited upturn at the end of the year. DIW Berlin's forecast indicates growth of 0.3 percent for 2025 and of 1.7 percent for 2026; thus, DIW Berlin is increasing its forecast...

Using a new database on global multinational production (MP), I document that world multinational enterprise (MNE) sales declined as sharply as trade during the Great Recession. This collapse was driven by MNEs from a few key headquarters countries, associated with steeper GDP declines in...

On average, wages of female workers are lower than wages of male workers. In this paper, we explore to what extent a gender bias in trade costs explains this gender wage gap and how different policy reforms could lower it. First, we analyse the relation between various types of trade costs and...

The outlook for the global economy continues to be weighed down by high uncertainty surrounding economic policy in the United States in general and aggressive tariff measures in particular. Although the threat of tariffs actually boosted economic activity at the beginning of the year, as...

I study the impact of domestic and foreign geopolitical risk (GPR) on economic expectations, and how trade linkages affect the transmission of foreign risks. Using monthly professional forecasts since 1995, I start by estimating the effect of GPR events on the distribution of expectations across...

We propose new ways to measure populism, using the Manifesto Project Database (1960- 2019) as main source of data. We characterize the evolution of populism over 60 years and show empirically that it is significantly impacted by the skill-content of globalization. Specifically, imports of goods...

The paper departs from the perspective of “second image IPE,” i.e., the need to closely combine Comparative Political Economy (CPE) and International Political Economy (IPE). More specifically, it focuses on the observation that the growth models in the (former) periphery of the global...

Many countries worldwide share borders that offer several benefits, such as easier access, faster knowledge transfer, and more efficient trade diplomacy. However, reliance on land-border trade alone has not been consistently shown to increase GDP per capita or vice versa. This study investigates...

The escalating threat of climate change has placed carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at the forefront of global environmental policy. The relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and information technology (IT) is crucial in shaping international climate change strategies. This study...

Trade's impact on emissions is not straightforward. Existing literature on trade and emissions primarily focuses on countries' net export emissions, often neglecting the emissions saved by importing products instead of producing them domestically. The environmental impact from trade is...

This paper explores how global economic and financial imbalances have evolved amid rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions. While globalisation and technological change have had a positive impact on global growth and poverty reduction, they have also led to increased inequality,...

Integration into global markets serves as a powerful catalyst for economic growth in developing economies, offering the potential to create high paying jobs and foster development. This paper uses the structural gravity model to quantify potential merchandise exports for Asian economies,...

This paper aims to estimate the value added and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embodied in trade between Brazil and the original BRICS countries - China, India, Russia, and South Africa - for the year 2022. Based on data from Exiobase, the emissions indicator reveals that China is the main...

The global economy is already experiencing a period of moderate economic momentum. Now, it is also exposed to additional challenges, in particular a substantial increase in economic policy uncertainty. This is mainly due to the actions and announcements of the new U.S. administration. On the one...

The global trade landscape is being reshaped by geoeconomic fragmentation and the rise of industrial policies. This paper studies the impact of these trends on the export-oriented Korean economy. It documents both positive and negative effects of U.S.-China trade tensions, technology and supply...

Technological advancements in the financial sector are widely recognized as transformative for global trade and supply chains, significantly improving access to financial services while enhancing the security, efficiency, transparency, and flexibility of transactions between exporters and...