Évaluation du processus d'intégration monétaire au sein du Système Monétaire Européen

The question whether the European Monetary System has brought about a reduction in the variability of its members' exchange rates is not a trivial issue since central rates are adjustable and bilateral exchange rates are allowed to move freely within fairly large margins. In this paper I have found clear evidence after 1979 of a reduction in nominal exchange rate variability but only mixed results when the same analysis is applied to real exchange rates. Several factors might account for these results. An attempt is made to assess the specific influence of changes in monetary and exchange rate policies. The evidence derived from an application of the principal component analysis to interest rates and the first results provided by an ad-hoc empirical model on the reaction functions of some EMS central banks point to the prominent role played after 1979 by more convergence in monetary policies and more forceful interventions on the foreign exchange markets.