Инфраструктура и экономический рост. «Бюджетный маневр» в России

The paper examines the world experience in stimulating economic development based on the creation of infrastructure. The effects on economic growth are found to be moderate. Building infrastructure boosts economic growth in the poorest countries, where infrastructure shortages are critical. For developing countries, the creation of infrastructure is of secondary importance, and infrastructure has a significant impact when it is part of development projects implemented by industrial policy measures based on a system of catch-up development institutions. For developed countries, infrastructure can lag behind market sector dynamics and investment can again have significant impact. For the Russian economy, where the stock and quality of infrastructural and human capital are at medium levels, it is not necessary to expect accelerated growth from the implementation of national projects, the bulk of which goes to the creation of infrastructure. This conclusion is confirmed by numerical experiments based on a computable general economic equilibrium model constructed in this work for Russia. At the same time, it is found that the increase in the VAT rate itself, which is part of the budget maneuver, leads to a decrease in output in most industries, including the manufacturing sector. In the scenario of a budget maneuver - with an increase in the VAT rate and an increase in government spending - the negative effects of the increase in VAT are intensified: there is stronger growth in the public sector, construction and raw materials, which ensures economic growth, but at the same time increases the cost of factors and leads to a deepening decline in other sectors as a result, the economy experiences a double negative impact. The public sector begins to reproduce the mechanism of the Dutch disease.