Контрсанкции и российская экономика: эффекты для экономического роста, импорта и продовольственных рынков

This work explores the effects of countersanctions and import substitution processes on food markets, food imports, and economic growth in Russia. In 2014-2018 in the agro-food markets quite active import substitution processes (in terms of domestic production volumes) is shown. On poultry meat, pork, vegetables and cheese, the growth of domestic production covered the fallen imports by more than 2 times, which led to an increase in the share of domestic production. A lack of substantial production growth is still seen in cattle meat production. On the basis of ex-post analysis, it is determined that the actual contribution of domestic agriculture (excluding cereals) and food industry to GDP dynamics was moderate but positive. In certain sanctions years, it reached 0.24 p.p. or 10.6% of total GDP growth. At the same time, the contribution increased significantly compared to the presanction period. The main effects of countersanctions are found in imports of milk, vegetable and fruit groups, but due to the small share of imports in total consumption, the impact on domestic markets is insignificant. According to calculations, the main factor of growth of domestic agricultural sectors (excluding cereals markets) and food industry in 2014 were countersanction actions of Russia.