The COVID-19 Pandemic and International Trade : Temporary Turbulence or Paradigm Shift?

This article argues that although some of the short-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for international trade may be serious, they do not appear to be unmanageable. From this perspective, one could expect that once the pandemic disappears (or is at least under control), international trade will go back to business as usual. However, in a different time frame, the potential impact of the pandemic can be more profound than initially anticipated, leading to structural changes in the process of economic globalization. While the seeds of such a process were sown some time ago, the COVID-19 pandemic may exacerbate existing tendencies for states to turn inwards and compete more openly for economic and political dominance in the world. Whether this actually happens will greatly depend on the length and severity of the current pandemic. The bigger its impact, the greater are the chances that we will see the paradigm shift in international trade relations and governance