Quiet Quitting or Working Hard : Economic Policy Uncertainty and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts

This paper examines whether sell-side analysts struggle to cope with macroeconomic uncertainty. We find that analysts issue more accurate earnings forecasts when facing higher economic policy uncertainty, which conflicts with the conclusions in the US. We provide a novel explanation for this finding and exclude the view that forecast accuracy improvement comes from analysts’ efforts to actively collect private information through site visits. Further evidence supports that heuristic cognitive bias and emotional framing effect hold back analysts’ tendency to optimism in China, resulting in higher forecast accuracy. As to why Chinese analysts do not work harder but issue more accurate forecasts, we suggest that it is mainly due to the different market regimes faced by analysts in the two countries. Our study sheds light on how macroeconomic uncertainty affects analysts’ unethical behavior and explains the cognitive processes involved