Austrian agriculture 2030 - 2040 - 2050 : scenarios and sensitivity analyses on land use, crop and livestock production

Although the agricultural sector plays a minor economic role in the national economy, macroeconomic impacts are relevant for the achievement of climate goals due to forward and backward linkages with sectors in the food value chain. Agricultural land use also has some positive external effects or spillovers to other sectors, such as tourism. The aim of the study is not only to estimate the expected adaptation and mitigation costs in the sector to achieve the specific climate policy goals, but also to quantify the economic impacts. The relevant variables are the effects on GDP, gross value added, output, land use and employment. The effects on food and energy security are assessed as complementary parameters. The results show that a significant reduction in emissions from the agricultural sector is only possible with a significant reduction in its output. This implies that economic activity in agriculture, in industries providing inputs and in industries receiving outputs will decline in such a scenario. Negative consequences for consumers can be avoided if an increase in imports compensates for the loss of production in Austria.