Agricultural trade and geopolitics : a comparative analysis of China-U.S. and China-Canada trade relations

This paper draws on trade data, academic literature, government reports, and policy documents to contextualize historic trade dynamics and trace the buildup to recent disputes. Using a comparative framework, we analyze how Sino-U.S. and Sino-Canada relations have shaped and continue to shape agri-food trade flows. Our analysis reveals structural vulnerabilities in U.S. and Canadian agricultural exports to China, emphasizing how reliance on a narrow set of commodities exposes both countries to economic losses resulting from China's trade policies. Simultaneously, China's dependence on a limited number of suppliers for large volumes of key commodities makes it vulnerable to price volatility and supply uncertainty