Intergenerational education mobility trends in South Africa : patterns by population group

South Africa's education system remains shaped by a legacy of colonialism and apartheid, with persistent racial disparities in attainment despite multiple post-1994 reforms. Using wave 5 of the National Income Dynamics Study, this paper examines intergenerational education mobility across cohorts born between 1953 and 1992, focusing on differences between African, Coloured, and White population groups. We measure mobility using intergenerational correlations, bottom-/top-half mobility, and post-secondary attainment conditional on parental education. Our results show substantial gains in upward mobility for African children, particularly those born to parents in the bottom half of the education distribution. In contrast, mobility among Coloured children has stagnated or declined. Whites retain strong advantages at the top of the distribution. The education mobility gap between African and Coloured children born to parents in the bottom half of the education distribution persists even after accounting for observed childhood geographic, socio-economic, and school factors, indicating that these characteristics cannot fully explain the differences in mobility. Notably, Coloured children are systematically and increasingly less likely than Africans to attain post-secondary education, even when parental education is comparable. The results suggest that, although some convergence has occurred, South Africa's education system does not yet function as an equalizing force, and race remains a powerful determinant of educational opportunity. Closing these mobility gaps is important in the pursuit of equity and social inclusion.