Social security transfers and fiscal sustainability in Turkey : evidence from 1984-2024

Social security systems constitute a structurally significant component of public finance in developing economies and often generate persistent fiscal pressures through budgetary transfers. Demographic transformation, widespread informality in labor markets, and weaknesses in contribution-based financing increase the dependence of social security systems on public resources. The objective of this study is to examine whether budget transfers to the social security system affect fiscal sustainability in Turkey by analyzing their relationship with the budget deficit and the public sector borrowing requirement. The analysis employs annual data for Turkey covering the period of 1984-2024. A comprehensive time-series econometric framework is adopted, incorporating conventional and structural-break unit root tests, the ARDL bounds testing approach with error correction modeling, and the Toda-Yamamoto causality method. The empirical findings provide evidence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The results indicate that social security budget transfers exert a statistically significant and persistent effect on the public sector borrowing requirement, while no direct long-run effect on the headline budget deficit is detected. Causality results further confirm that fiscal pressures associated with social security financing materialize primarily through borrowing dynamics rather than short-term budgetary imbalances. By explicitly modelling social security budget transfers as an independent fiscal channel over a long historical horizon, this study contributes to the literature by offering new empirical insights into the fiscal sustainability implications of social security financing in Turkey. The findings also provide policy-relevant evidence for developing economies facing similar institutional, demographic, and fiscal challenges.