2005 OUTLOOK OF THE U.S. AND WORLD SUGAR MARKETS, 2004-2013

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2004-2013 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes.Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to improve slightly over the next nine years after the current over-supply is reduced. World demand for sugar is expected to grow faster than world supply, resulting in Caribbean sugar prices gradually increasing from 8.40 cents/lb in 2004 to 8.70 cents/lb in 2013. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to decrease from 26.15 cents/lb in 2004 to 24.89 cents/lb in 2013, if the United States maintains its sugar programs. The CAFTA agreement is expected to increase U.S. imports slightly, but with little impact on U.S. prices. It is projected that Mexico will be able to export 405 thousand metric tons of sugar to the United States by 2013. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.