The RiskMod Model is comprised of a set of risk simulation models, collectively referred to as RiskSim; a set of computer programs that manages data referred to as Data Management Procedures; and RevSim, a model that calculates net revenues. RiskMod interacts with the AURORA Model, the RAM2007, and the ToolKit Model during the process of performing the Risk Analysis Study. AURORA is the computer model being used to perform the Market Price Forecast Study (see Market Price Forecast Study, WP-07-E-BPA-03); the RAM2007 is the computer model being used to calculate rates (see Wholesale Power Rate Development Study, WP-07-E-BPA-05); and the ToolKit is the computer model being used to develop the risk mitigation package that achieves BPA's 92.6 percent TPP standard (see Section 3 in the Risk Analysis Study, WP-07-E-BPA-04). Variations in monthly loads, resources, natural gas prices, forward market electricity prices, transmission expenses, and aluminum smelter benefit payments are simulated in RiskSim. Monthly spot market electricity prices for the simulated loads, resources, and natural gas prices are estimated by the AURORA Model. Data Management Procedures facilitate the format and movement of data that flow to and/or from RiskSim, AURORA, and RevSim. RevSim estimates net revenues using risk data from RiskSim, spot market electricity prices from AURORA, loads and resources data from the Load Resource Study, WP-07-E-BPA-01, various revenues from the Revenue Forecast component of the Wholesale Power Rate Development Study, WP-07-E-BPA-05, and rates and expenses from the RAM2007. Annual average surplus energy revenues, purchased power expenses, and section 4(h)(10)(C) credits calculated by RevSim are used in the Revenue Forecast and the RAM2007. Heavy Load Hour (HLH) and Light Load Hour (LLH) surplus and deficit energy values from RevSim are used in the Transmission Expense Risk Model. Net revenues estimated for each simulation by RevSim are input into the ToolKit Model to develop the risk mitigation package that achieves BPA's 92.6 percent TPP standard. The processes and interaction between each of the models and studies are depicted in Graph 1.
